The Guardian
· collected 2026-10-05 · by Tom Phillips and Tiago Rogero in Rio de Janeiro
Story summary
Brazilian Presidential Election: Tight Race Between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro
On October 4, 2026, Brazil held a highly anticipated presidential election, with incumbent left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva facing right-wing challenger Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in what polls indicated would be a close contest. Both candidates had been campaigning intensively across the country, with particular focus on key states like São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro.
Lula, 80 years old, sought his fourth non-consecutive term, running on a platform of social welfare programs, income redistribution, and maintaining Brazil's ties with China. He framed the election as a choice between "democracy and sovereignty" versus "barbarism and corruption," targeting Bolsonaro's far-right policies.
Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, represented his father’s right-wing movement despite his father Jair Bolsonaro being barred from running due to a conviction for plotting a coup in the aftermath of the 2022 election. Flávio campaigned on law and order measures, though he has faced criticism over potential authoritarian leanings inherited from his father.
Polls conducted prior to the election showed Lula slightly ahead with around 45-47% support, while Bolsonaro garnered approximately 42-43%. A likely runoff was predicted if neither candidate secured more than 50% of valid votes. In such a scenario, the second round would be held on October 25.
The election took place amidst heightened political tensions and social media campaigns that fueled divisions among Brazilians. Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign received indirect support from U.S. President Donald Trump, despite not having an official endorsement. Meanwhile, Lula maintained a critical stance towards potential U.S. intervention in Brazilian politics following the previous administration’s actions against Brazil.
Regardless of the outcome, this election reflected significant political polarization within Brazil and its ongoing struggle to find stability after years of turbulent leadership changes and controversial policies. The results are expected to shape Brazil's direction for the next four years significantly.
Written for “Brazil Presidential Election 2026” on 2026-10-05,
grounded in this article and the 39 other(s) covering the same event.
Brazil’s presidential race will go to a second round after the far-right candidate, Flávio Bolsonaro, beat the incumbent leftwing president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, but failed to secure the outright majority he needed to avoid a runoff.
asserted
he → go → runoff
With more than 98% of votes counted, the 45-year-old son of the disgraced former president, Jair Bolsonaro, had won 47.3%, meaning he will now face a 25 October showdown with his 80-year-old rival.
asserted
he → count → rival
Lula received 44.8%.
asserted
Lula → receive → %
Bolsonaro will go into the second round as favourite and is likely to be boosted by the migration of votes from the election’s other rightwing candidates, who included Ronaldo Caiado, who secured 2.2%, and Renan Santos, who won 2.2%.
asserted
who → go → %
Brazil’s far-right put in a stronger than expected showing, with a succession of Bolsonarista politicians winning congressional or gubernatorial races.
asserted
right → put → races
They included Jair Bolsonaro’s second son, Carlos Bolsonaro, and his wife, Michelle Bolsonaro, who both won seats in the senate.
asserted
who → include → senate
Bolsonaro’s youngest son, Jair Renan, was elected to the lower house of congress.
asserted
son → elect → congress
Bolsonaro’s former infrastructure minister, Tarcísio de Freitas, was reelected as governor of São Paulo, Brazil’s most populous and economically important state.
asserted
minister → reelect → Paulo
On Sunday morning, as Lula cast his vote in São Bernardo do Campo, the industrial hub in the São Paulo metropolitan area where he began his political career more than half a century ago, the former union leader said Latin America’s largest democracy faced a stark choice.
asserted
democracy → cast → choice
“People are going to have to choose between strengthening democracy and barbarism,” Lula told reporters, highlighting his adversary’s well-documented links to members of Rio’s underworld, including once employing close relatives of a notorious contract killer.
asserted
Lula → go → killer
After voting in Rio, where the Bolsonaro political dynasty was born in the late 80s, Flávio Bolsonaro urged Brazilians to end what he called Lula’s “era of backwardness”.
asserted
he → vote → backwardness
“I’m more than ready to lead this country and to give Brazilian families the right to dream once again,” claimed Bolsonaro, who has promised an iron-fisted crackdown on crime, despite his ties to members of Rio’s paramilitary mafias.
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who → ’m → mafias
Lula, who became Brazil’s first elected working-class president in 2002 and was returned to office in 2006 and 2022, is hoping to secure a historic fourth non-consecutive term in this year’s election.
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who → become → election
Allies of the veteran leftwinger call the election a crucial battle in the fight against a far-right movement that less than four years ago brought chaos to the capital, Brasília, during an unsuccessful attempt to overturn the result of the 2022 election, when Lula beat the incumbent president, Jair Bolsonaro.
asserted
Lula → call → president
“Brazilian democracy is at stake,” said Talíria Petrone, a leftwing congresswoman from Rio who is seeking reelection.
asserted
who → say → reelection
Speaking at Lula’s final pre-vote rally in Rio, Petrone called for tactical voting to prevent the Bolsonaro clan returning to power.
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clan → speak → power
“I’m sure that even those people who don’t like Lula know that Flávio Bolsonaro must be defeated – and the only way is a fourth presidential term for president Lula,” Petrone said.
asserted
Petrone → ’m → Lula
Bolsonaro hopes winning the presidency will allow him to free his father, who is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a failed coup after refusing to accept he had lost the last election to Lula.
asserted
he → hop → Lula
Ahead of the election he also called for tactical voting from conservatives who are not supporters of Bolsonarismo, but want to vote Lula out of power.
asserted
who → call → power
As well as the president, Brazil’s nearly 159 million voters are choosing state parliamentarians, 27 state governors, 513 members of the lower house and 54 members of the 81-seat senate.
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voters → choose → senate
Speaking on the eve of the election, Maria Tereza Fazzio, 74, a retired psychologist from Rio, said she had voted for Lula ever since he first ran for the presidency in 1989 – four years after the end of Brazil’s 21-year dictatorship.
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he → speak → dictatorship
She vowed to do so again this year, in order to protect social programmes implemented by Lula and out of fear that a Bolsonaro victory could put her country’s democracy in jeopardy.
uncertain
victory → vow → jeopardy
“All he talks about is granting an amnesty to his dad and all the others who are in prison [because of the 2022-23 coup attempt] – he hasn’t got any policy agenda,” she said of Bolsonaro.
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she → talk → Bolsonaro
Bolsonaro seemed to have the wind in his sails in the final days before Sunday’s vote, amid public frustration at a cost of living crisis and urban violence.
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Bolsonaro → seem → crisis
However, his momentum appeared to have been interrupted by a row involving Brazil’s Catholic patron saint, Our Lady of Aparecida.
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momentum → appear → Aparecida
Speculation that Bolsonaro – who is part of Brazil’s fast-growing evangelical community – might strip the widely cherished patroness of her position caused a nationwide outcry, leaving some to question if it could tip the knife-edge election in favour of Lula, who is Catholic.
uncertain
who → grow → Lula
On Sunday, an influential Catholic bishops’ organisation, the Episcopal Conference of Brazil, posted a thinly veiled swipe at Bolsonaro on social media.
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organisation → post → media
“May God grant us wisdom and courage to build together a reconciled, sovereign, just, and fraternal Brazil,” the group wrote on X, calling on Our Lady of Aparecida to protect the country.
uncertain
group → grant → country
Donald Trump also became a key election issue, with Lula accusing the US president of trying to swing the vote in Bolsonaro’s favour in order to “colonise” Brazil and appropriate its natural resources.
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Lula → become → resources
Bolsonaro has vowed to build a closer relationship with Trump, who hopes a rightwing victory will help him further cement US control over Latin America after the election of pro-Trump leaders in a succession of countries, including Chile, Colombia and Peru.
asserted
victory → vow → Chile
The Aporia
