Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, an ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, and Brazil’s incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will face off in a runoff Oct. 25 for the top job of Latin America’s powerhouse economy after neither won a majority in Sunday’s vote.
asserted
neither → face → vote
The country’s electoral court in Brasilia said neither the 80-year-old incumbent, seeking his fourth non-consecutive term, nor the 45-year-old son of former President Jair Bolsonaro would garner the majority vote needed for an outright win.
asserted
incumbent → say → win
The court had Bolsonaro with just over 56 million votes to Lula’s 53.7 million, with 99.8 percent of the vote reported.
asserted
percent → have → vote
The next presidential term is set to begin Jan. 5.
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term → set → ?
A win for Bolsonaro would increase U.S. influence in Latin America.
asserted
win → increase → America
If Lula wins, Brazil will keep its distance from Washington and continue to deepen its relationship with China.
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Brazil → win → China
Lula faces a tough battle
Flávio Bolsonaro addressed the press and a small group of supporters, including some wearing green and yellow Brazil jerseys and one woman wrapped in the Israeli flag, outside his Brasilia house.
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Bolsonaro → face → house
“Brazil wants change, that’s the reading of what happened today,” Bolsonaro said.
asserted
Bolsonaro → want → change
“It’s the end of the Workers’ Party era,” he added, in a reference to Lula’s party.
asserted
he → ’ → party
Lula, seeking to be encouraging ahead of an uphill battle to beat Bolsonaro in the runoff, said the result was “unexpected” as he had thought he could win in the first round.
uncertain
he → seek → round
“Tomorrow we start a new campaign,” Lula said.
asserted
Lula → start → campaign
We will see who has the best plan.
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who → see → plan
Both Lula and Bolsonaro will have three weeks to reach moderate voters who did not support them in the first round.
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who → have → round
Augusto Cury, a writer who finished in third place with 3.4 million votes, said he would not endorse either in the runoff.
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he → finish → runoff
Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos, two candidates who garnered about 5.3 million votes combined Sunday, have previously said the same.
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who → garner → same
In the campaign ahead, Lula is expected to try to capitalize on the popularity of his social policies and his rival’s many legal woes.
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Lula → expect → policies
Image problems for both candidates
While the once widely popular Lula saw his approval ratings plummet during his third term, standing up to the U.S. gave him a boost.
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standing → see → boost
And he still enjoys a strong base of supporters who credit his social policies for improving millions of Brazilians’ lives.
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who → enjoy → lives
But the incumbent faces a tough battle because of an affordability crisis and a corruption scandal that ensnared the same justice who led the investigation into Bolsonaro.
asserted
who → face → Bolsonaro
Bolsonaro will likely lean into his messaging on affordability and link the president to corruption scandals.
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Bolsonaro → lean → scandals
He has promised to crack down on Brazilian criminal groups and insisted that Brazil needs to strike better deals with the Trump administration, including in the rare minerals economy, second only to China.
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Brazil → promise → China
Bolsonaro also has campaigned on releasing his father and bringing him back to politics.
asserted
Bolsonaro → campaign → politics
Both candidates face image problems: Roughly half of Brazil’s population disapproves of the Bolsonaro family, and roughly half disapprove of Lula’s Workers’ Party, according to multiple polls.
uncertain
half → face → polls
Four years ago, Lula beat then incumbent Jair Bolsonaro by about 2.1 million votes.
asserted
Lula → beat → votes
While it was a successful night for Bolsonaro, nothing is won yet, said Mayra Goulart, a political scientist from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
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Goulart → win → Janeiro
Lula should “look at the votes for Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado and try to reduce abstention,” she said.
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she → look → abstention
Voters to choose between incumbent or return to right
Reacting to the result, Alvaro Senra, 65, a history professor and Lula supporter in Rio de Janeiro said he felt “calm but very sad.”
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he → choose → Janeiro
He watched the count with friends at a bar.
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He → watch → bar
“I think this is the result of conservatives working under the radar, including by neo-Pentecostal churches.
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this → think → churches
But I think Lula can still win,” he said.
asserted
he → think → ?
Earlier in the day, Maria Ribeiro, a 50-year-old cellphone vendor from Brasilia, said she voted for Bolsonaro’s eldest son because she wants freedom to express her evangelical religion.
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she → say → religion
She hopes he follows in his father’s footsteps.
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he → hop → footsteps
“I voted for his father, and I don’t regret it,” she said.
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she → vote → it
The proximity to his father was what worried Lorena Zschaber, a 40-year-old photographer, who watched the results roll in at an LGBTQ+-friendly bar in downtown Rio de Janeiro.
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results → worry → Janeiro
During his father’s presidency, “people felt more at ease to discriminate,” she said.
asserted
she → feel → ease
“I’m an LGBTQ+ woman, I can’t think of anything worse happening than Flávio Bolsonaro being elected,” she added.
asserted
she → ’m → ?
Rosângela Resende da Rocha, a 69-year-old who was previously a stay-at-home mom, said she supported Lula’s social policies that help the “less fortunate” and how he stands up to Trump.
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he → stay → Trump
“That crazy guy wants to come in here to buy our country, so that our country will be like it is over there,” she said at a voting center in Brasilia.
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she → want → Brasilia
“He won’t succeed if Lula wins.”
asserted
Lula → succeed → ?
Confidence in Brazil’s electronic voting system
No significant fraud has ever been detected since Brazil adopted its electronic voting system in the 1990s.
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Brazil → detect → 1990s
…and 5 more, not listed.
The Aporia
