- Published
Flávio Bolsonaro's success in Brazil's presidential election is being hailed as the result of a "blue wave" - the latest example of a resurgence of right-wing support sweeping Latin America.
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success → publish → America
But despite missing an outright majority – meaning there will be a second round later this month – the unexpectedly clear first round victory leaves his left-wing opponent needing an unprecedented result to retain the presidency.
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victory → miss → presidency
Senator Bolsonaro is the eldest son of ex-president Jair Bolsonaro, who became known as the "Trump of the Tropics" due to his ideological alignment with the US president.
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who → know → president
The younger Bolsonaro is 45 years old and is part of the-right wing political dynasty initiated by his father.
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Bolsonaro → initiate → father
He had never before run for the presidency and surprised observers by finishing ahead of the 80-year-old president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, of the Workers' Party.
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He → run → Party
All polls had indicated a close race, with Lula and Bolsonaro statistically tied.
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Lula → indicate → race
But that was not what happened on Sunday
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what → happen → Sunday
Flávio obtained 56.1 million votes, while Lula received 53.8 million.
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Lula → obtain → million
Part of Bolsonaro's success at the ballot box may be related less to his popularity and more to the numbers of people rejecting Lula.
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Part → relate → Lula
Bolsonaro has presented himself as a dynamic young politician connected to the demands of younger voters, including concerns about rising crime rates in a country that records more than 40,000 homicides annually.
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that → present → homicides
But polling groups such as Datafolha, one of Brazil's most respected institutes, suggest that this election has been a battle of rejection rates.
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election → suggest → rates
Its most recent survey suggested that, on the eve of the election, both candidates had the same rejection rate with voters: 45%.
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candidates → suggest → voters
The problem for Lula, however, appeared to be worse.
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problem → appear → Lula
One poll showed that 49% disapproved of his government, while the approval rate stood at 48%.
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rate → show → %
Analysts had been saying that never before in Brazilian history had a president managed to seek re-election with such a high disapproval rate.
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president → say → rate
Voter dissatisfaction with Lula's government shows that the left-wing leader is facing a paradox.
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leader → show → paradox
Average income is also at its highest level since records began.
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records → begin → level
Despite the economy's apparent solid performance, Brazilians have shown considerable dissatisfaction with their current living conditions.
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Brazilians → show → conditions
In an attempt to address this issue, Lula increased by 15% the value of Bolsa Família, the government's main social welfare program.
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Lula → address → Família
He also banned online gambling, which was legalised in 2018 and has since been blamed for widespread household income losses due to addiction.
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which → ban → addiction
A second factor behind Flávio Bolsonaro's success is the way he positioned himself in relation to the Brazilian Supreme Court.
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he → position → Court
He spent much of his campaign criticising the court's actions, in way similar way to his father when he was president.
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he → spend → father
Bolsonaro criticised the conviction of his father by the same court for an attempted coup d'état in 2023, when thousands of people invaded the buildings of the three branches of government in Brasília.
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thousands → criticise → Brasília
It was compared to the 6 January Capitol Hill attack in 2021 in Washington DC.
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It → compare → DC
Bolsonaro senior's 27-year prison sentence in 2025 was heavily criticised by the right and remained controversial, particularly because of the role played by Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversaw the case and was close to Lula.
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who → criticise → Lula
Flávio Bolsonaro was also able to use another controversy involving Moraes to his political advantage: the Banco Master corruption scandal involving the Brazilian banker Daniel Vorcaro, who was arrested in March.
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who → use → March
Vorcaro is alleged to have orchestrated one of Brazil's largest financial frauds, embroiling senior figures across the political spectrum.
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Vorcaro → allege → spectrum
Lula was also impacted by the scandal indirectly, after police suggested Vorcaro had reached out to Moraes to ask for help avoiding arrest.
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Vorcaro → impact → arrest
Moraes denies any wrongdoing.
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Moraes → deny → wrongdoing
Moraes was not appointed by Lula but is seen as his ally, given Moraes presided over Jair Bolsonaro's coup trial.
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Moraes → appoint → trial
A second aspect of Flávio Bolsonaro's victory goes beyond the presidential election.
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aspect → go → election
In the Senate, the Liberal Party, led by the Bolsonaros, jumped from 15 seats to 28.
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Party → lead → 28
The strength of the Bolsonaro family can be seen by the fact that the ex-president's wife, Michelle, and another son, Carlos, were both elected for the Senate.
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wife → see → Senate
Lula faces an extremely difficult task.
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Lula → face → task
Never before has a candidate who trailed after the first round managed to overturn the deficit and win in the second round.
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who → trail → round
Political analyst Dora Kramer, writing for Folha de S Paulo, argues that both Lula and Flávio will have to focus their efforts on independent voters.
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Lula → write → voters
Brazilians like to say that politics in their country is so unstable that not even the past is predictable.
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past → like → country
At this point, a comeback by Lula seems more distant, though not impossible.
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comeback → seem → Lula
In any case, even if he succeeds in achieving an unprecedented reversal against Flávio Bolsonaro, one thing is certain: the Bolsonarist right has consolidated itself as an unavoidable political force.
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right → succeed → force
The Aporia
