Trump and Xi summit may just be a ‘horse and pony show’, experts say

Read the original at Al Jazeera ↗
Al Jazeera · collected 2026-09-24 · by Megha Bahree

Quick Summary

Experts caution that the upcoming summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping may not yield significant trade deals. Instead, the focus is expected to be on rebuilding trust following a period marked by escalating tariffs under both Trump's and Biden’s presidencies. The current average US tariff rate on China stands at 36.5 percent, while China's tariffs on US goods are around 31 percent. Although there might be discussions about liberalizing trade of non-sensitive goods and speeding up the supply of critical minerals, experts like Mary E Lovely see this summit as more stabilizing than transformative.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-24, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

Before the Xi-Trump summit last week, analysts expected soybeans to be included in tariff-reduced arrangements between China and the U.S., but China excluded them from a tariff-reduction list released on September 28, 2026, despite cutting tariffs on other agricultural goods like corn, wheat, meat, and dairy. This decision disappointed American farmers, such as John Bartman, an Illinois-based soybean farmer who called it "a missed opportunity." U.S. soybeans still face an additional tariff of 10%, which traders say is too high for private crushers to absorb, even as Chinese state buyers have stepped up purchases. Despite this exclusion, both sides agreed to form a trade council to discuss reciprocal tariff cuts on $30 billion worth of products and stabilize economic ties.

Written for “US-China Tariff Cuts Deal” on 2026-10-05, grounded in this article and the 283 other(s) covering the same event.

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
30
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
13%
4 of 30 hedged
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Correction & hedging signals
60.3
corrections and hedging in what we collected; not a measure of accuracy
Outlets on this story
284
Economy/Business
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-09-24 · how these are computed

Story

📰 US-China Tariff Cuts Deal
Economy/Business · 284 article(s) covering the same event. See how they differ ↓

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 13% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Al Jazeera · 0.86 cosine similarity
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 10% hedged 6 of 63 📰 publisher trust 60
“Both articles describe President Trump welcoming Chinese President Xi for a state visit in Washington, DC on the same day with similar details about the red carpet treatment and underlying tensions.”
Al Jazeera · 0.86 cosine similarity
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 10% hedged 6 of 63 📰 publisher trust 60
“Both articles describe the same specific meeting between Trump and Xi in Washington DC on September 24, 2026.”
CBC News · 0.85 cosine similarity
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 3% hedged 1 of 32 📰 publisher trust 77
“Both articles describe the same U.S.-China summit involving President Trump and Xi Jinping on the same day, discussing similar themes of re-establishing trust and expectations regarding trade policies.”
Toronto Star
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 15% hedged 6 of 41 📰 publisher trust 63
“Both articles refer to the same state visit between Trump and Xi in Washington in September 2026.”
South China Morning Post
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 33% hedged 1 of 3 📰 publisher trust 67
“Both articles refer to the same upcoming Xi-Trump summit, discussing its significance and expectations.”
Toronto Star
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 18% hedged 8 of 44 📰 publisher trust 63
“Both articles describe the summit meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping at the White House on the same date.”
Euronews
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 10% hedged 2 of 20 📰 publisher trust 60
“Both articles describe President Trump welcoming Chinese President Xi Jinping to the United States for a state visit on the same day, discussing their interactions and the context of ongoing trade tensions.”
Fox News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 5% hedged 1 of 19 📰 publisher trust 69
“Both articles refer to the same specific state dinner between Trump and Xi on the same day.”
The Straits Times
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 11% hedged 4 of 35 📰 publisher trust 59
“Both articles describe President Trump's meeting and summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping on September 24, 2026, covering similar details about the nature of their discussions and the atmosphere of the event.”
The Guardian
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 12% hedged 4 of 34 📰 publisher trust 60
“Both articles discuss the same Trump-Xi summit, held on September 24-25, 2026, focusing on the lack of substantive outcomes and the ceremonial aspects.”

Publisher

Al Jazeera · 2102 article(s) · 2 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 2 correction(s)
2026-10-03
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2026-09-30
Indonesia suspends five officials over luxury apartments for inmates

Who wrote this

Megha Bahree
1 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 The US wants those deliveries to be sped up and “for that reason alone, the US will want a continuation of the truce”, Lovely added.
The only article under this byline in the corpus.

Topics

Beijing Busan China Iran United States

Subjects

China GPE · 8× Trump PERSON · 4× Iran GPE · 3× Lovely PERSON · 3× Beijing GPE · 2× Busan GPE · 2× Chinese NORP · 1× Donald Trump PERSON · 1× United States GPE · 1× Xi Jinping PERSON · 1×

Narrative

But relations really nosedived with Trump’s second term when he unleashed new tariffs on China, including threatening levies of 200 percent at one point last year, with Beijing promising to hit back at similar levels and throttling exports of critical minerals that are used in manufacturing a range of products from laptops and cellphones to cars and renewable energy infrastructure.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-24
🔮 The US wants those deliveries to be sped up and “for that reason alone, the US will want a continuation of the truce”, Lovely added.
2026-09-24 · Al Jazeera
Trump and Xi summit may just be a ‘horse and pony show’, experts say · assertive framing

Claims (30 extracted, 4 hedged)

As United States President Donald Trump rolled out the red carpet for Chinese President Xi Jinping with a rare personal welcome at the airport, to be followed by a state banquet and a military flyover, experts warn to temper expectations as the summit is more focused on “re-establishing trust” rather than having any meaningful deals announced at the end of it. asserted
deals → roll → it
The US and China have been locked in a trade war since Trump’s first term as president when he introduced levies on imports of certain industrial goods, and Beijing retaliated with tariffs on a range of US exports including soya beans, pork and electric vehicles. asserted
Beijing → lock → beans
Some of those policies continued under Trump’s successor, President Joe Biden, who also introduced other measures, including curbs on chip exports. asserted
who → continue → exports
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administration → sentence → data
But relations really nosedived with Trump’s second term when he unleashed new tariffs on China, including threatening levies of 200 percent at one point last year, with Beijing promising to hit back at similar levels and throttling exports of critical minerals that are used in manufacturing a range of products from laptops and cellphones to cars and renewable energy infrastructure. asserted
that → nosedive → cars
While both sides have since stepped back from that cliff after the two leaders met in late October in Busan on the sidelines of the APEC summit in South Korea, US tariffs are still at a hefty average of 36.5 percent, while China’s tariffs on US goods average out to 31 percent. asserted
tariffs → step → percent
“This is not a bargaining summit,” Reza Hasmath, academic faculty adviser at The China Institute at the University of Alberta, told Al Jazeera. asserted
Hasmath → tell → Jazeera
“It’s a stabilising summit.” asserted
It → ’ → ?
Apart from tariffs, other items on the agenda include cooperation on artificial intelligence safety, Iran and Taiwan. asserted
items → include → safety
“The point of the summit is to set up a continuation of the truce” that was arrived at in Busan, said Mary E Lovely, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute of International Economics. asserted
Lovely → set → Economics
It was after that meeting that China resumed its supply of critical minerals. asserted
China → resume → minerals
The US wants those deliveries to be sped up and “for that reason alone, the US will want a continuation of the truce”, Lovely added. asserted
Lovely → want → truce
With that goal, Lovely says there may be an announcement of a Board of Trade mechanism where both sides would reduce their respective tariffs on $30bn worth of goods each. uncertain
sides → say → goods
For Lovely, the best-case scenario from the summit will be the two countries actually do begin to liberalise trade of some non-sensitive goods and that the flow of critical minerals is indeed sped up, all of which will show “a little bit of normalisation of relations”. asserted
all → begin → relations
The worst case, on the other hand, is if they don’t find common ground, she said. asserted
she → find → ground
Tricky areas Safety rules around AI and a coordinated slowdown in that sector, for instance, could be tricky topics, experts agree. uncertain
experts → coordinate → instance
While US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has proposed a US-China dialogue and an AI hotline to report AI incidents that could threaten national security, the lack of mutual trust will limit any real deliverables in this area, says Dexter Tiff Roberts, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub. uncertain
Roberts → propose → Hub
The distrust is fuelled by US restrictions on the sale of advanced chips to China, as well as repeated rhetoric from the US government, including from Trump, that there is a battle for supremacy in AI that the US must win. asserted
US → fuel → that
At the same time, “China wants to push global governance on its own terms and sees AI as a soft power tool that they can offer to other countries”, said Tiff Roberts. asserted
Roberts → want → countries
Similarly, on Iran, while China does not sell weapons to Tehran, it does sell dual-use components. asserted
it → sell → components
It also has historically bought significant quantities of oil from Iran, revenues from which have helped the latter’s economy stay afloat. asserted
economy → buy → which
Although it has held off those purchases in the past few months of the US-Iran war – thus helping stabilise global oil prices – as it has dipped into its strategic reserves, experts say that could change in the near future. uncertain
that → hold → future
Beijing “is delighted that the US is distracted with its war in Iran”, said Tiff Roberts, “and is not going to do anything to help the US with that”. asserted
Roberts → delight → that
Then there is Taiwan. asserted
Taiwan → be → ?
Taiwan is democratically governed, but China views it as its own territory and wants to see the US moving closer to its policy. asserted
US → govern → policy
Taiwan, which rejects unification, has been waiting for months for Washington, DC, to approve the sale of $14bn in arms. “We don’t expect Trump to sell Taiwan down the river … but Trump is a bit of a wild card, and Taiwan is nervously watching,” said Tiff Roberts. asserted
Roberts → reject → card
Even though no real deals are expected from the three-day summit, experts agree that it is important for the two leaders to meet. asserted
leaders → expect → summit
“There’s a whole lot at stake given the huge trade relationship, including for the rest of the world,” Tiff Roberts said. asserted
Roberts → ’ → world
Also, as Trump heads into the US midterm elections, he “wants a big state visit to show he’s an international leader of standing and wants the bright lights of TV on him to show him as a leader”, while China needs a better trade relationship, especially as its domestic economy sags, said Tiff Roberts. asserted
Roberts → head → relationship
But it will be about re-establishing trust”, said the China Institute’s Hasmath. asserted
Hasmath → re → trust
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