The red carpet was rolled out, and a trade truce was extended.
asserted
truce → roll → ?
Yet, beneath the pomp and pageantry of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state visit with US leader Donald Trump on Thursday, Washington and Beijing remain locked in a much deeper strategic rivalry.
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Washington → lock → rivalry
Xi arrived in Washington, DC on Wednesday evening for talks on Thursday, and Trump was there to meet him personally on the tarmac.
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Trump → arrive → tarmac
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The meeting was the first state visit by a Chinese leader to the US in 11 years.
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meeting → visit → years
But it is also the third time in less than a year that the two men have met face to face, as the two powers remain uneasily gridlocked in competition over AI, rare-earth metals, the question of Taiwan, and the Iran war.
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powers → meet → Taiwan
Overhanging it all is the paused, but simmering, trade war between their two nations.
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war → overhang → nations
Almost as soon as Trump began his second term in the White House in January 2025, up went tariffs on Chinese goods as he accused China of facilitating the flow of fentanyl, a deadly drug, to the US.
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he → begin → US
Beijing responded with its own levies, then restricted exports of valuable rare-earth metals which are crucial for the development and manufacture of everything high-tech, from smartphones to fighter jets.
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which → respond → jets
At one point, tariffs were heading towards 150 percent before being paused to allow time for talks.
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tariffs → head → talks
Finally, the two leaders called a truce on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea on October 30, and they met once more, in May, when Trump travelled to Beijing.
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Trump → call → Beijing
As Xi landed in Washington on Wednesday this week, the Trump administration announced that the two countries had agreed to extend an October 2025 truce which had offered some respite from the punishing tariffs, produced an agreement from China to buy more soyabeans from the US and delayed the ban on rare-earth exports from China until January 10.
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which → land → January
The prospect of a much-longed-for trade deal appeared to be in the air when US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News he had met Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng before Xi’s visit to “see if we could do a bigger deal as opposed to just a series of smaller things”.
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we → long → things
But analysts have, for the most part, shot down such hopes.
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analysts → shoot → hopes
Beyond tariffs, they say, the simmering conflict between the two powers now encompasses new US sanctions on buyers of Russian oil – namely China – and sweeping investment and research restrictions, never mind the intensifying race for dominance in artificial intelligence.
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conflict → say → intelligence
“The two-month extension isn’t a bridge to a grand bargain – it’s a temporary sandbag holding back a structural flood,” Beijing-based Einar Tangen, a senior fellow at the Center for International Governance Innovation, told Al Jazeera.
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Tangen → ’ → Jazeera
In fact, the truce is little more than “transactional theatre” – an attempt at good optics before the upcoming US midterm elections – Tangen said.
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Tangen → say → elections
Trump’s deeply unpopular war on Iran has already inflicted severe damage to his chances in that vote.
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war → inflict → vote
Democrats are leading in the polls amid concerns about the rising cost of energy, triggered by the war which the US started.
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US → lead → which
Trump ultimately needs wins on other issues.
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Trump → need → issues
The current truce with China serves a purpose, therefore, but is fragile enough to be undone the moment political utility shifts for Trump, Tangen said.
“Success in January won’t be measured by what is solved, but by whether the knot is left tight enough to hold, but not kill,” said Tangen.
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Tangen → serve → January
Phillippe Le Corre, professor of international relations and Asian studies at France’s ESSEC Business School, said the length of the truce extension indicates clearly that a more permanent deal remains out of grasp.
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deal → say → grasp
“The extensions are getting shorter and shorter, which means they haven’t found a common ground on many issues,” Le Corre told Al Jazeera.
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Corre → get → Jazeera
Nothing is resolved, and many Damocles’ swords are still hanging over Washington’s head,” he added.
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he → resolve → head
Trump’s entire China policy, Le Corre argued, is in fact short-sighted.
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Corre → argue → fact
“That is bringing the world a lot of uncertainty,” he said.
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he → bring → uncertainty
Sun Chenghao, a fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University in Beijing, described the extension of the trade truce as a “useful interim step”.
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Chenghao → describe → step
It shows that both sides want to preserve the recent easing of tensions, which is meaningful progress, he said.
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he → show → tensions
“From China’s perspective, a sustainable agreement needs reciprocal benefits and greater policy predictability,” Sun told Al Jazeera.
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Sun → need → Jazeera
“Additional purchases cannot indefinitely compensate for uncertainty over tariffs, technology restrictions and market access.”
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purchases → compensate → tariffs
The extension’s value, however, will depend on whether it produces “concrete commitments” from Beijing and Washington, Sun added.
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Sun → depend → Beijing
There is motivation to get a deal done, analysts say.
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analysts → be → ?
A Congressional Research Service report in July 2026 noted that Chinese goods exported to the US still face tariffs of 36.5 percent, while US goods entering China are taxed at 31 percent.
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goods → note → percent
Any higher, and they will raise import and manufacturing costs in the US, squeeze margins and increase pressure on consumer prices
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they → raise → prices
, said Sun.
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Sun → say → ?
They would also hurt US farmers and industrial exporters, he added, just as the US faces pressure from the rising costs of its war on Iran, which have pushed it into a record national debt of $40 trillion two years earlier than expected.
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which → hurt → trillion
“Washington is playing a high-stakes game of economic chicken with a $40 trillion debt load, an inflationary sword of Damocles, zero fiscal cushion to absorb a truce collapse and a dependence [on] Chinese industrial and manufacturing inputs,” Tangen said.
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Tangen → play → inputs
US consumers and the economy in general will find it tough to survive yet another inflationary shock from renewed tariffs “at a time when the federal budget already operates like a high-wire Ponzi scheme”.
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budget → find → scheme
Then there is the AI race, which no one can afford to lose.
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one → be → which
According to Jon Bateman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a partial “decoupling” of US and Chinese technology ecosystems is under way.
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decoupling → accord → way
US policymakers have pushed to become less dependent on Chinese tech and “to secure America’s technological future in the context of a rising China”, Bateman writes.
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Bateman → push → China
…and 23 more, not listed.
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