Ruling United Russia party predicted to win around 50% of the vote in parliamentary elections, exit polls say

Read the original at Daily Mail ↗
Daily Mail · collected 2026-09-20 · by Patrick Harrington

Quick Summary

State-run exit polls predict that Russia’s ruling United Russia party will secure approximately 50% of the vote in parliamentary elections, mirroring its performance from 2021. The Communist Party and LDPR are forecast to place second and third with about 14% and 10% of the votes respectively. With a reported voter turnout of around 56%, the outcome reflects the Kremlin's control over the electoral process, leaving little uncertainty about Putin’s party maintaining its dominant position.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-21, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

Russian parliamentary elections, held from September 18-20, were widely expected to see United Russia, President Vladimir Putin's party, maintain its dominance over the State Duma (lower house of parliament). Despite critics arguing that the outcome was predetermined and would have no significant impact on the country’s future, Russian authorities made persistent efforts to ensure high voter participation under current electoral law. The elections came amidst increasing war fatigue and economic hardship due to Ukraine's drone strikes targeting oil refineries and warehouses within Russia, causing fuel shortages and internet blackouts.

Exit polls conducted by independent groups at embassies and consulates abroad revealed starkly different results from those inside Russia: New People, an opposition party, garnered around 45% of the votes compared to United Russia’s reported near-58% support domestically. These discrepancies highlight a divergence between domestic and international perceptions of Putin's popularity, with many Russian expatriates opposing the war and expressing anxiety over its economic and social consequences.

Critics argue that these elections are more about demonstrating the regime's resilience than reflecting genuine public sentiment or political contestation, given the tight control exercised by the Kremlin.

Written for “Russia's Wartime Elections” on 2026-10-05, grounded in this article and the 64 other(s) covering the same event.

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
7
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
14%
1 of 7 hedged
Leaning
Leans right
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Correction & hedging signals
64.9
corrections and hedging in what we collected; not a measure of accuracy
Outlets on this story
65
Politics
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-09-21 · how these are computed

Story

📰 Russia's Wartime Elections
Politics · 65 article(s) covering the same event. See how they differ ↓

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans right and hedges 14% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
The Hindu · 0.89 cosine similarity
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 3 📰 publisher trust 60
“Both articles report on the exact same parliamentary election results for United Russia in Russia on September 20-21, 2026.”
CBC News · 0.86 cosine similarity
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 19% hedged 6 of 32 📰 publisher trust 60
“Both articles describe the same parliamentary election on September 20, 2026, where Putin's ruling United Russia party was predicted to win a significant portion of the vote, with context about an attack by Ukraine.”
BBC News
⚖️ Leans strongly right further right than this 🔴 3% hedged 2 of 62 📰 publisher trust 78
“Both articles discuss the same parliamentary elections in Russia on September 2026, with similar results and context provided.”
Times of India
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 12 📰 publisher trust 59
“Both articles describe the same three-day parliamentary election in Russia held in September 2026.”
South China Morning Post
⚖️ Leans strongly left further left than this 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 5 📰 publisher trust 67
“Both articles describe the voting and results of Russia's parliamentary election held from September 18 to 20, 2026.”
Euronews
⚖️ Centre further left than this 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 10 📰 publisher trust 60
“Both articles describe the results and context of the same nationwide parliamentary elections in Russia held from September 18-20, 2026.”
Al Jazeera
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 11% hedged 5 of 45 📰 publisher trust 60
“Both articles describe the same parliamentary election in Russia on September 2026 and discuss the expected outcome for the United Russia party.”
Euronews
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 11% hedged 2 of 19 📰 publisher trust 60
“Both articles describe the final day and results of the parliamentary elections in Russia on September 20, 2026.”
Dawn
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 13% hedged 4 of 31 📰 publisher trust 77
“Both articles describe the parliamentary elections held on September 20, 2026, where United Russia won with around 50% of the vote, and mention similar details including cyberattacks and drone strikes.”
Euronews
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 16% hedged 4 of 25 📰 publisher trust 60
“Both articles describe the same parliamentary elections held on September 18, 2026, where United Russia party is predicted to win a majority of votes, with details about cyberattacks and drone strikes.”

Publisher

Daily Mail · 3716 article(s) · 12 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 12 correction(s)
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Clarifications and corrections

Who wrote this

Patrick Harrington
13 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 'He couldn't straighten, he couldn't hook his head up.' He added: 'Then it also comes with dietary problems, so bowel problems.
🔮 He was jailed for life in March last year and told he would never be released.
🔮 The 2016 Bentley Mulsanne, adapted to suit everything from the Queen's personal taste to the size of her handbag, is expected to fetch up to £400,000 when it goes under the hammer at Broad Arrow next month.
🔮 He said the crash was caused more by 'inexperience' than 'irresponsibility', and that a more experienced driver 'may have applied the brakes in a different manner'.
🔮 She would take (our son) out of Danny's arms.
🔮 This time last year we were very busy and I dread to think what could have happened.
🔮 The findings come as former minister Alan Milburn is preparing a government-backed report into the issue, that will include recommendations for getting more youngsters working.
🔮 The United Russia party is predicted to take home around half the vote, similar to its result in the previous elections of 2021.
🔮 A pergola erected on the family home's roof overlooking Thistle Grove has sparked fury among neighbours Charlie Banner was voted the top planning KC in Britain in the 2025 and 2026 editions of Planning Magazine's annual legal survey Lord Banner is good friends with former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, with the pair pictured here together at Lord's in 2023 One particularly incandescent neighbour, a first-time mother with a six-month-old baby, said the pergola 'dominates every view across all our floors'. Objecting to a retrospective planning application submitted by Ms Nesterchuk, she alleged: 'While retrospective applications are legally permitted...it should not obscure the clear, demonstrable harm this structure inflicts on neighbouring properties, the streetscape, and, most importantly, our family's quality of life.' A council planning officer subsequently informed the couple that it was regarded as 'unpermitted' and warned that enforcement action could follow if permission was found to have been necessary.
🔮 The death of an Oasis fan who died at a sold-out Wembley gig after falling from a balcony will be examined at a full inquest next year.
Also by Patrick Harrington
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 13 articles by Patrick Harrington →

Topics

Daily Mail LDPR Russia The Communist Party United Russia

Subjects

Daily Mail ORG · 1× Kremlin ORG · 1× LDPR ORG · 1× Putin PERSON · 1× Russia GPE · 1× The Communist Party ORG · 1× United Russia GPE · 1× Vladimir Putin PERSON · 1× Vladimir Putin's PERSON · 1×

Narrative

The United Russia party is predicted to take home around half the vote, similar to its result in the previous elections of 2021.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-21
🔮 The United Russia party is predicted to take home around half the vote, similar to its result in the previous elections of 2021.

Claims (7 extracted, 1 hedged)

- See more Daily Mail on Google - save us as a Preferred Source Russia's ruling party that is loyal to Vladimir Putin is set for a landslide victory in the latest parliamentary elections, according to state-run exit polls. uncertain
that → see → polls
The United Russia party is predicted to take home around half the vote, similar to its result in the previous elections of 2021. asserted
party → predict → 2021
The Communist Party is on track for second place with around 14 percent of the vote, followed by the LDPR on ten percent. asserted
Party → follow → percent
The result of the election was never truly in doubt, because the Kremlin exerts tight control over the voting process. asserted
Kremlin → exert → process
In the absence of a credible opposition, the question was not whether Putin's party would win, but by how much. asserted
party → win → much
Vladimir Putin's party looks set for a landslide victory asserted
party → set → victory
This is a breaking news story, refresh for updates. asserted
This → break → updates
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