How to think about the midterms — and the political moment the country is in
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country → think → midterms
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President Trump was elected in 2024, in large measure, with a mandate to bring down prices.
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Trump → get → prices
But that hasn't happened.
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that → happen → ?
Instead, Trump is facing record-low approval ratings, record-high intensity of opposition, and voters are blaming him for prices that have continued to rise since he took office this second time around.
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he → face → office
Most presidents get more blame and credit than they deserve for the economy.
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they → get → economy
But the war with Iran and Trump's tariffs were choices that have directly led to increased prices on goods and energy.
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that → lead → goods
The economy is increasingly bifurcated with the wealthy doing well, in large part, because of increasing stock portfolios dominated by AI companies, while regular Americans are turning against AI data centers, struggling because of inflation that is outpacing wages, a middling labor market and interest rates that are creeping higher.
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that → bifurcate → wages
Those rates are making it harder to buy a home or a car, making millions of people feel like they're treading water.
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they → make → water
The latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll showed a plurality — 44% — said their finances have mostly stayed the same and another 38% saying their economic situations have worsened.
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situations → show → ?
Only 15% said things have actually gotten better for them from a money standpoint.
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things → say → standpoint
Add to that the disapproval of the administration's hard-line immigration enforcement tactics, cuts to domestic spending on programs like Medicaid and other health care programs, and the slashing of regulations and the government workforce, and it's angering swing voters and firing up Democrats.
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it → add → Democrats
As a result, the president's party is likely to pay the price.
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party → pay → price
Midterms are usually difficult for the president's party to begin with.
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party → begin → ?
History is not on Republicans' side this year
Only twice since World War II has the president's party gained seats in the House in a midterm election.
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party → gain → election
On average, the president's party loses 26 seats in midterm years, and it's worse when a president's approval rating is below 50%, as Trump's has been.
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Trump → lose → %
When that's the case, the presidents' parties have lost an average of 35 seats.
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parties → lose → seats
When they're above 50%, they still lose seats but only 15 on average, 20 seats better than when a president is unpopular.
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president → lose → seats
The fact that presidents' parties lose seats in midterms is something Trump himself has acknowledged multiple times at campaign events.
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Trump → lose → events
Meanwhile, Democrats have had political success in this Trump term.
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Democrats → have → term
They have consistently overperformed in special elections, which are indicators of midterm prowess, and they cleaned up in the 2025 off-year elections.
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they → overperforme → elections
Since then, the political landscape has only gotten worse for Republicans because of the unpopular Iran war that has led to skyrocketing gas prices.
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that → get → prices
All of that points to Democratic gains this cycle.
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All → point → gains
They are favored to win control of the House, and they are in striking distance of winning the Senate, something that had been seen as a longshot at the beginning of this cycle.
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that → favor → cycle
Democrats have potential limitations
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Democrats → have → limitations
While the landscape has undoubtedly moved more in Democrats' direction over the last several months, the extent of the likely potential gains is not clear.
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extent → move → gains
When looking at the Cook Political Report's ratings, there are about 30 fewer competitive districts — ones rated as lean or toss up — this year than in 2018 when Democrats won a net gain of more than 40 seats in the House.
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Democrats → look → House
Mid-decade redistricting has also helped to insulate Republicans this cycle, even if marginally.
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redistricting → help → Republicans
After all the redistricting fights across the country, with Trump explicitly pushing GOP-led state legislatures to get more Republican seats, an NPR analysis shows Republicans netted an estimated 8-seat advantage out of redistricting.
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Republicans → push → redistricting
Depending on how Latinos in South Texas, in particular, vote those gains might be lower.
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gains → depend → Texas
While Republicans face significant headwinds and the GOP is not viewers favorably, the Democratic Party is also not viewed positively.
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Party → face → headwinds
Democrats have had trouble wrangling a base of voters who should be Democrats but are restive and unsatisfied by the party.
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who → have → party
That said, the latest NPR poll showed that self-identified "democratic socialists" were very engaged in these midterms and hotly disapprove of the job Trump is doing.
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Trump → say → job
As the old saying goes, the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
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enemy → go → enemy
This group of voters may vote in big numbers in this election as a check on Trump — 44% of poll respondents said their vote was a vote against Trump while 21% said it was a vote for him.
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it → vote → him
But there's a likely clash of ideals and approach coming on the left over the next several months, as the Democratic presidential primaries.
And make no mistake, the 2028 election begins almost immediately after these midterms.
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election → be → midterms
Candidates who want to make a splash and need a national boost tend to announce earlier rather than later.
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who → want → boost
It's important to remember nothing is a done deal until the results are in.
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results → remember → ?
A lot of this is going to come down to Republican turnout.
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lot → go → turnout
That's why Trump has been deployed to red states to try and push and plead with his base to get out and vote.
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Trump → deploy → base
Without a big GOP turnout in these places, a one- or two-seat pick up for Democrats in the Senate can quickly turn into six or seven.
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pick → turn → six
…and 15 more, not listed.
The Aporia
