Every four years, we get to choose our own president.
asserted
we → get → president
But every two years, we have other elections, where we choose all 435 members of the House of Representatives, and a third of our Senators, and a whole lot of governors.
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we → have → governors
This is a midterm elections year, our chance to steer the direction of the country.
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This → steer → country
"These are historically viewed as referenda on the job performance of a president," said New Yorker politics columnist Susan Glasser.
asserted
Glasser → view → president
She believes Tuesday's elections will be historic in a long list of ways.
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elections → believe → ways
"The president is the most unpopular American president in the history of modern polling going into a midterm election," Glasser said.
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Glasser → go → election
"People are so angry," Glasser said.
asserted
Glasser → say → ?
"It's symbolized in how much money they're paying to put gas in their cars at the pump, or how much money they're paying for groceries.
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they → symbolize → groceries
"This will be a record-breaking year basically any way you slice it," said Wesleyan University professor Erika Franklin Fowler, who studies political ads.
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who → break → ads
"The amount of money that's being spent is enormous."
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that → spend → money
But do political ads actually change anybody's mind?
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ads → change → mind
"Really not all that much," Fowler said.
asserted
Fowler → say → ?
"No amount of advertising is going to change citizens' minds about the cost of goods in this type of economy."
asserted
amount → go → economy
Also historic is the rise of artificial intelligence in the ads: Computer-generated scenes of candidates that look like real video.
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that → generate → video
Fowler said, "It's having candidates say things that they never said or do things that they never did.
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they → say → that
Those are particularly concerning because it's not clear to the viewer that this never happened."
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this → happen → viewer
"There's no federal regulation of AI in advertising," said Fowler, "so most of it actually doesn't even carry a disclaimer.
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most → be → disclaimer
And with just days to go before the election, is any ad, or any rally, going to change a voter's mind?
asserted
ad → go → mind
"That might be the irony of it all – we're seeing a lot more early voting this year," Fowler said, "and so a lot of the advertising that's on air now is actually too late to make a difference."
uncertain
that → see → difference
Pollster Anthony Salvanto, who conducts our
, said, "We see, overall, the numbers shifting toward the Democrats.
asserted
numbers → conduct → Democrats
It's not historically unusual for a president's party to lose seats in a midterm.
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party → lose → midterm
"So, what is driving voters: The war?
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what → drive → voters
Salvanto said, "It all of the above."
asserted
Salvanto → say → above
Another big factor, according to Salvanto, is the president: "Two-thirds of folks tell us they're going to the polls for Congress either to support him (26%), or, in more cases, to oppose his policies (41%)."
The president is a factor for the candidates, too.
uncertain
president → accord → candidates
Most ads for Republican candidates don't even mention Mr. Trump.
asserted
ads → mention → Trump
Sometimes they even criticize his policies, such as Michigan Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers' ad calling for an end to President Trump's tariff war against Canada.
asserted
they → criticize → Canada
According to the latest CBS News House model, the Democrats are on pace to win 229 seats, giving them the majority.
uncertain
Democrats → accord → majority
As for the Senate, Salvanto said, "At the start of the year, there weren't many folks who gave Democrats a chance to take the Senate.
asserted
who → say → Senate
Well, what we've seen over time is that a lot of those red Republican states have in fact come into play.
asserted
lot → see → play
Doesn't mean the Democrats are going to win them, but they certainly look to be more competitive."
asserted
they → mean → them
The idea that Texas and might elect Democratic Senators is definitely historic.
uncertain
Texas → elect → Senators
Glasser said, "The last time that Democrats won a Senate seat in Kansas was in the 1930s.
asserted
Democrats → say → 1930s
The last time a Democrat was elected to the U.S. Senate from Texas was Lloyd Bentsen in 1988."
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Democrat → elect → 1988
What comes after the election?
asserted
What → come → election
So, if the Democrats win control of both houses of Congress, does that change anything?
asserted
that → win → anything
According to Susan Glasser, "I think you would see efforts to restrain the Defense Department from spending more money, for example on Trump's war with Iran.
uncertain
you → accord → Iran
I think you might see very aggressive oversight and investigation hearings.
uncertain
you → think → hearings
I think you'll see them issue subpoenas.
asserted
them → think → subpoenas
But Glasser has more immediate concerns about what happens after the elections: "Donald Trump said that he won't accept the results of any election that he personally does not think were conducted the way he wanted them to be."
asserted
them → have → way
Asked if she thinks the president might try to invalidate or interfere with the results, Glasser laughed: "I don't think that's a speculative question.
uncertain
that → ask → results
…and 6 more, not listed.
The Aporia
