How a blue wave could test Trump in his final two years
AI
uncertain
wave → test → years
In his second term, US President Donald Trump so far has benefited from his Republican Party holding majorities in both houses of Congress, as he did in the top half of his first turn in the White House.
asserted
he → benefit → House
When one party controls both the presidency and Congress, ambitious legislation can become law, as evidenced by the tax-cut measures enacted under Trump in 2017 and 2025.
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legislation → control → 2017
And with party faithful running congressional committees, a presidential administration is insulated, to some extent, from tough scrutiny from such bodies.
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administration → run → bodies
Now, public disapproval of Trump’s job performance threatens to bring one-party Republican government to a crashing halt in Nov 3 congressional elections.
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disapproval → threaten → elections
A “wave election” that breaks in favour of the Democrats would, in Trump’s final two years in the White House, expose his administration to greater oversight and force it to accept compromise if it wants to enact legislation.
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it → break → legislation
At the same time, there’s a lot a president can do without Congress.
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president → ’ → Congress
Trump already has tested the bounds of a president’s power by issuing expansive executive orders, including some that have been struck down by the courts, and waging war against Iran without congressional authorisation.
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that → test → authorisation
What’s a wave election?
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election → ’ → ?
There’s no precise definition, but the term is used to describe when a political party makes major gains in the House of Representatives, the Senate or both.
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party → ’ → Representatives
Generally speaking, congressional wave elections have occurred at the midpoint of a president’s four-year term – when the president isn’t on the ballot – and have usually benefited the party that doesn’t occupy the White House, which right now is the Democratic Party.
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which → speak → House
In a wave election, the closest races can tend to break all in the same direction.
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races → tend → direction
How many seats are being contested this year?
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seats → contest → ?
Republicans hold a 218 to 214 edge in the House.
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Republicans → hold → House
(There is also one independent, Representative Kevin Kiley of California, who aligns himself with Republicans for his committee assignments.)
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who → be → assignments
In the Senate, Republicans have a 53-to-47 advantage.
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Republicans → have → advantage
All 35 races are for full six-year terms except for special elections in Florida and Ohio to serve out terms that will expire at the end of 2028.
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that → serve → 2028
Can Democrats win control?
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Democrats → win → control
The Democrats are better positioned to win control of the House than the Senate.
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Democrats → position → Senate
Democrats need a net gain of just three seats for a majority in the House and have over performed in special elections held since Trump returned to the presidency in January 2025.
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Trump → need → January
The Senate poses a steeper challenge.
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Senate → pose → challenge
Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a 51-seat outright majority because Vice-President J.D. Vance could break any 50-50 split in favour of Republicans.
uncertain
Vance → need → Republicans
Democrats would likely have to retain all or almost all of their 13 current seats that are being contested, including in the politically competitive states of Michigan, Georgia, and New Hampshire.
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that → have → Michigan
Of the 22 states with Republican-held seats on the ballot, all but Maine and North Carolina favoured Trump by more than 10 percentage points in the 2024 election.
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all → hold → election
Democrats would need to flip at least two of those double-digit Trump states.
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Democrats → need → states
That looked unlikely at the start of the campaign cycle but is more realistic now.
Strong candidate recruitment and an anti-Trump political environment have made Democrats highly competitive in a raft of traditionally Republican-leaning states such as Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas.
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Democrats → look → Alaska
Why do waves happen?
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waves → happen → ?
One theory is that anger energises citizens, so those opposed to the president and his policies are more motivated to turn out at the polls than those happy with the status quo.
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those → energise → quo
The backlash can be severe: Since the end of World War II, the president’s party on average has suffered a net loss of about 25 House seats and 3.5 Senate seats in midterm elections.
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party → suffer → elections
What are polls and prediction markets saying?
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polls → say → What
Polls suggest most of the public is deeply dissatisfied with the direction of the country and with the president.
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most → suggest → president
Trump’s approval rating – 37% in the New York Times average of daily polls as of Oct 30 – is one of the lowest of any president since World War II and comparable to Republican George W. Bush’s 38% approval rating in a Gallup Poll on Election Day 2006, when Democrats won majorities in both the House and Senate for the final two years of Bush’s presidency.
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Democrats → win → presidency
The less popular the president, the more seats his party tends to lose.
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party → tend → ?
Polls show Democrats leading Republicans in voter enthusiasm and in a generic congressional ballot question that asks voters which party they support in the upcoming election.
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they → show → election
The prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi point to a Democratic sweep, giving the party better than 90% odds of winning control of the House and about a two-thirds chance of securing a Senate majority.
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markets → point → majority
What would Democratic victories in Congress mean for legislation?
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victories → mean → legislation
Even if control of only one chamber flips, Trump’s ability to get Congress to pass legislation opposed by Democrats would be thwarted.
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Congress → flip → Democrats
A Bill must be approved by both the House and Senate before it is sent to the president’s desk to be signed into law or vetoed.
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it → approve → law
So a united Democratic majority in either chamber would be able to block any Bill.
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majority → block → Bill
For those same reasons, control of just one chamber wouldn’t enable the Democrats to pass legislation on their own.
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control → enable → own
…and 55 more, not listed.
The Aporia
