Can I trust the polls?
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I → trust → polls
Get the latest on the midterms & more in the NPR App
Ahead of Election Day, there are a lot of questions about what might happen, what the implications of different outcomes might be and even what it's like to cover elections.
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it → get → elections
In collaboration with the NPR Politics Podcast, listeners sent in their questions about the election and politics for our political correspondents to answer.
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correspondents → send → election
How can you as a reporter provide an accurate news piece utilizing poll results?
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you → provide → results
This is a common question every election cycle, but it's a little like saying, "I don't like the media because the media is biased."
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media → say → media
National polls have actually been pretty good when it comes to the horse race, with a slight underestimation of Republican turnout.
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it → come → turnout
But remember, these polls have margins of error.
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polls → remember → error
That means a poll with +/- 3 or 4 percentage points is actually a range of 6 to 8 points.
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poll → mean → points
That's important because in a country with very close elections, the kind of precision that Americans expect sets up the polls for failure because they're not intended to be that specific.
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they → expect → failure
They set more of a fuzzy range.
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They → set → range
State surveys have seen a lot of junk polls, even a couple fake ones this time around.
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surveys → see → polls
So it's really important to pay attention to the quality of the pollster.
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it → pay → pollster
Local newspapers and TV stations just don't have the kind of money that national outlets do to pay for good, rigorous and frequent polling.
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outlets → have → polling
I talk a lot about polls, but you rarely hear me talking about specific margins between candidates, unless there's been a trend moving the needle in a certain direction.
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me → talk → direction
The races are close, within margin of error in many places, and that's all that really needs to be conveyed.
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that → need → places
Unfortunately, some outlets emphasize the horse race, but the best stuff is underneath.
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stuff → emphasize → race
For example, we wouldn't know how quickly public opinion moved on important issues, approval ratings, attitudes and how strongly people feel about those things without this data.
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people → know → data
Also, for those who don't think reporters should use polls at all, understand that campaigns and corporations spend millions of dollars on polling to inform where they spend money, where they travel and what messages to use.
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they → think → messages
They use the same pollsters you hear about externally.
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you → use → pollsters
All that said, polling is one tool.
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polling → say → ?
It's not everything, and it should be mixed with historical context, reporting with campaigns, and being on the ground, which are all priorities of NPR's as well.
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which → mix → NPR
- Domenico Montanaro, NPR senior political editor and correspondent
Do you prefer reporting on midterms or presidential election years?
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you → prefer → midterms
Are there unique opportunities that midterms have?
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midterms → have → that
Presidential elections are certainly easier to cover in the sense that there are two sides who are looking to be in one job.
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who → cover → job
You get a lot of quirky candidates in down-ballot races sometimes with interesting storylines that might not see a lot of daylight in a presidential election, which is like a solar eclipse.
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which → get → eclipse
Plus, I got my start covering midterm elections, researching the 2006 elections and learning about every single congressional race, and it was fascinating — the characters, the different types of places and economies and people in this very large country.
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it → get → country
- Domenico Montanaro, NPR senior political editor and correspondent
Reporting during the midterms is so much more fun!
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Reporting → report → midterms
Rallies for presidential candidates have tons of security and stadium-size venues.
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Rallies → have → security
Tagging along with a candidate for House or Senate, especially early in the cycle, can be so much more intimate.
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Tagging → tag → cycle
This year, I've covered candidates at an antique shop, a farmer's market, a UAW picnic, a family farm and a smokejumper-themed brewery.
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I → cover → shop
There is more opportunity to see candidates up close, watch them interact with voters and even ask them questions.
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them → be → questions
- Sam Gringlas, NPR congressional reporter
I personally like all elections, which is what makes a presidential year so great, you get a whole smorgasbord of contests.
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you → like → contests
The top of the ticket certainly consumes a lot of oxygen but I've found you can often learn more about how the election is going by spending time with congressional candidates or even candidates for the state legislature.
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election → consume → legislature
And, unlike midterm years, more voters are engaged, which makes for better voter interviews.
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which → engage → interviews
But, please check back in a week and a half to see how my sleep debt is doing and whether I still say I "like all elections," because this may just be the light at the end of the tunnel pre-election euphoria speaking.
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this → check → tunnel
Is there a race you're watching out of your own curiosity that may not "matter" at the national level?
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that → watch → level
Every race counts when it comes to the balance of power in the House and the Senate.
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it → count → House
But I have been joking that following the twists and turns in Nevada's 2nd Congressional District is now my hobby.
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following → joke → District
I did a story about this race about a month ago and it has only gotten more wild since.
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it → do → race
It is a district that President Trump won by 14 points that hasn't been represented by a Democrat in its more than 40 years in existence.
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that → win → existence
…and 47 more, not listed.
The Aporia
