What Americans Really Think Ahead of the Midterms. Plus. . .

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Cite

The Free Press. (2026, October 28). What Americans Really Think Ahead of the Midterms. Plus. . . The Free Press. https://www.thefp.com/p/midterms-michigan-abdul-el-sayed-macklemore-brazil-river-page-eli-lake-israel-netanyahu-eisenkot

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The Free Press · collected 2026-10-28 · by The Free Press

Quick Summary

The Free Press presents polling data from The Honesty Project in their latest installment ahead of the midterms, asking Americans if they believe the country is moving in the right direction. This election is seen as a referendum on President Donald Trump's leadership. Additionally, the article covers peculiar trends such as Democratic Christian clergy running for office and scrutinizes an offensive campaign ad supporting Abdul El-Sayed, which Democrats are debating whether to denounce.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-28, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

As of October 28, 2026, an independent PAC supporting Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed released a controversial ad depicting a couple struggling to afford basic groceries due to U.S. aid to Israel. The ad implies that the money spent on aiding Israel could otherwise be used for food and other necessities. This strategy aims to sway voters ahead of the midterms by linking support for Israel with economic hardship at home. Meanwhile, The Free Press's poll shows Americans are divided on whether the country is moving in the right direction as midterm elections approach in six days.

Written for “Midterm Elections Polls” on 2026-10-28, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Reading Leans left (beta estimate) Confidence high
Leaning: leans left for article 111584 (high confidence, 1 verified quote) · logged 2026-10-28

Story

📰 Midterm Elections Polls
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 4% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
BBC News
⚖️ Leans right further right than this 🔴 24% hedged 16 of 66 📰 publisher trust 69
“Article A discusses upcoming elections in both Israel and the US, while Article B focuses on American opinions ahead of the midterm elections and mentions other unrelated news items.”
Daily Mail
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 8% hedged 2 of 25 📰 publisher trust 68
“The articles discuss different aspects of public opinion ahead of the midterms without clearly reporting on the same specific poll or incident.”
CBS News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 no claims extracted 📰 publisher trust 66
“Article A is a general overview of news and opinions leading up to midterm elections, while Article B focuses specifically on Israel's election results.”
NPR
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 4% hedged 3 of 85 📰 publisher trust 60
“The articles discuss different aspects of political sentiment and events leading up to midterms in general, rather than a single specific incident.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
46
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
4%
2 of 46 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
96/100
The Free Press's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-28 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

The Free Press · 381 article(s) · 0 correction(s) detected
No corrections detected for this publisher. That may mean careful reporting, or simply that nothing has been checked.

Who wrote this

The Free Press
31 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Haviv Rettig Gur and Maya Sulkin make sense of Israel’s election results, live.
🔮 The leaders of the U.S., Russia, and China may soon sit down to decide Ukraine’s fate—without Volodymyr Zelensky at the table.
2026-10-20 · assertive framing · Trump’s Turn Toward Moscow. Plus. . .
🔮 But first: Why would you leave America to live in England?
2026-10-17 · assertive framing · Why I Left America for Broken Britain. Plus. . .
🔮 Before I could even finish my question, he cut in to insist he is “just not interested in this dog and pony show” about leaked audio that is “not relevant to people’s lives,” even though he spends so much of his time on the stump talking about foreign policy related to Israel, AIPAC, and the Iran war.
2026-10-12 · assertive framing · El-Sayed’s Unanswered Questions. Plus. . .
🔮 The lawsuit accusing seven former members of Cornell’s Chi Phi fraternity of gang-raping a classmate, allegations they deny, will ultimately be decided in court.
2026-10-08 · assertive framing · Cornell’s Culture Clash. Plus. . .
🔮 In 22 days, Israelis will vote in the first national elections since the worst attack in the country’s history.
🔮 Why wasn’t anyone in their fraternity willing to say: Enough, and help Jane Doe back to her dorm?
🔮 Inside the 50,000-person ceremony for the man who could become America’s next saint.
🔮 He would later describe himself as “the most dejected and reluctant convert in all England.”
🔮 Read my piece to understand why the series may do more than almost anything in recent years to shift public opinion on Israel.
Wire or desk byline, not an individual reporter.
Also by The Free Press
Trump’s Turn Toward Moscow. Plus. . .
2026-10-20 · The Free Press
A Town Hall with Vice President J.D. Vance
2026-10-19 · The Free Press
El-Sayed’s Unanswered Questions. Plus. . .
2026-10-12 · The Free Press
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 31 articles by The Free Press →

Topics

Americans Democrats Israel Kansas Senate

Subjects

Israel GPE · 6× Americans NORP · 4× Democrats NORP · 4× Senate ORG · 4× Christian NORP · 3× Kansas GPE · 3× The Free Press ORG · 3× Democratic NORP · 2× Haviv Rettig Gur PERSON · 2× Maya Sulkin PERSON · 2×

Narrative

Then, over the weekend, an independent PAC supporting Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed depicted a couple lamenting that they couldn’t afford bananas and eggs because they had to set aside money for U.S. aid to Israel—or, as they put it, “for killing Palestinians.”
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-28
🔮 Haviv Rettig Gur and Maya Sulkin make sense of Israel’s election results, live.
2026-10-28 · The Free Press
What Americans Really Think Ahead of the Midterms. Plus. . . · assertive framing

Claims (46 extracted, 2 hedged)

It’s Wednesday, October 28. asserted
It → ’ → ?
Haviv Rettig Gur and Maya Sulkin make sense of Israel’s election results, live. asserted
Gur → make → results
Ani Chkhikvadze reports from the riots in Rome. asserted
Chkhikvadze → report → Rome
Josh Kaplan attends rapper Macklemore’s “Free Palestine” tour. asserted
Kaplan → attend → tour
But first: Do Americans think the country is headed in the right direction? asserted
country → think → direction
Can a Democratic pastor win in deep-red Kansas? asserted
pastor → win → Kansas
And why won’t Abdul El-Sayed denounce an absurd, offensive new ad? asserted
Sayed → denounce → ad
The midterm elections are just six days away, and the vote is set to be a referendum on Donald Trump and the state of the country under his leadership. asserted
vote → set → leadership
So, how do Americans really think things are going? asserted
things → think → ?
That’s the question we set out to answer with the latest installment of our polling series, The Honesty Project, a partnership between The Free Press and opinion-research think tank Populace. asserted
we → ’ → Press
We asked Americans a simple question: Where is the country headed? asserted
country → ask → question
Read today’s first offering on the looming election to find out how Americans answered that question—and what new divides are emerging as the midterms approach. asserted
midterms → read → question
Up next, River Page reports from Kansas. asserted
Page → report → Kansas
He was there to cover a peculiar trend that has emerged this cycle: current and former Christian clergy running as Democrats. asserted
that → cover → Democrats
One is, of course, James Talarico, who is running for Senate in Texas. asserted
who → run → Texas
But maybe the most interesting is megachurch pastor turned Kansas Senate candidate Adam Hamilton. asserted
interesting → turn → ?
Republicans have long campaigned on their Christian faith, but they’re also eager to discredit Democrats who do the same. asserted
who → campaign → same
River went to the Sunflower State to report not just on Hamilton’s surprisingly competitive Senate bid but also on a bigger question: Can openly professing Christian faith help Democrats win back red-state voters? asserted
professing → go → voters
Then, over the weekend, an independent PAC supporting Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed depicted a couple lamenting that they couldn’t afford bananas and eggs because they had to set aside money for U.S. aid to Israel—or, as they put it, “for killing Palestinians.” asserted
they → support → Palestinians
Prominent Democrats have denounced the ad, but El-Sayed’s campaign has not. asserted
campaign → denounce → ad
Eli Lake examines the campaign’s silence—and what it reveals about the man at its helm. asserted
it → examine → helm
Polls are closed in Israel’s first national elections since before the October 7 attacks. asserted
Polls → close → attacks
Now, the question on everyone’s minds in Israel is this: In the race between Benjamin Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot, who can actually put together the 61 seats required to wield power in the Knesset? asserted
who → put → Knesset
The negotiations are complicated, and could take weeks. uncertain
negotiations → take → weeks
In the meantime, with 70% of the vote counted, Netanyahu’s bloc at approximately 54 seats, Eisenkot’s bloc at 47, and the Arab parties at 19. asserted
% → count → 19
What will happen next, and what does this all mean for Israel? asserted
this → happen → Israel
Maya Sulkin and Free Press Middle East analyst Haviv Rettig Gur will offer some answers today at 10 a.m. ET, live on X and Substack. asserted
Sulkin → offer → X
Watch the livestream here, and if you have burning questions for Haviv, post them in the Free Press Forum. asserted
you → watch → Forum
Brazilian politician Flávio Bolsonaro has fled to the United States after he lost Sunday’s presidential election and his country’s Supreme Court ordered the seizure of his passport. asserted
Court → flee → passport
The White House has granted asylum to Bolsonaro and his family, likely on the grounds of risk of judicial persecution, Reuters reported on Tuesday. asserted
Reuters → grant → Tuesday
The U.S. Federal Election Commission’s website has been hacked, causing disruptions to its electronic filings system, Reuters reported yesterday. asserted
Reuters → hack → system
The FEC, which collects data on spending by candidates and political action committees, said its IT staff were “actively working to restore service” as of Tuesday evening. asserted
staff → collect → evening
Three luxury real estate mogul brothers were convicted on Tuesday of drugging and raping dozens of women and sentenced to 30 years in prison each. asserted
brothers → convict → prison
“Your conduct was monstrous,” U.S. District judge Valerie E. Caproni said during sentencing. asserted
Caproni → say → sentencing
The defendants’ insistence that getting married and having children has led to changes in behavior asserted
insistence → marry → behavior
“rings hollow,” Caproni said. asserted
Caproni → say → ?
DNA evidence has linked serial killer Ted Bundy to the death of another Utah teenager, authorities said on Tuesday—52 years after her body was first discovered. asserted
body → link → teenager
Though Bundy has been dead since 1989, his confirmed victim count—now at least 30—continues to rise thanks to advances in DNA testing. asserted
count → confirm → testing
Crime victims have lost out on at least $119 million in restitution as a direct result of Trump’s pardons, a CBS News investigation found on Tuesday. asserted
investigation → lose → Tuesday
Pardons during the Biden administration erased $14,000, according to Justice Department records. uncertain
Pardons → erase → records
…and 6 more, not listed.
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