Claims extracted
24
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
4%
1 of 24 hedged
("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
60/100
NPR's corrections and
hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Polls are a snapshot, and other helpful things to remember during the midterm elections
This is about the time of year when the country engages in the Great American Biennial Polling Freakout.
asserted
country → remember → Freakout
A few weeks before an election, lots of people start to really engage.
asserted
lots → start → people
They read headlines showing this candidate or that candidate leading a race.
asserted
candidate → read → race
People wonder who's going to win and whether the polls are right or wrong.
asserted
polls → wonder → ?
And it all often leads to a blend of anticipation mixed with confusion and anxiety.
asserted
it → lead → confusion
All that needs to be known from the polls at this point is that over the last several months, the compass needle has moved more in Democrats' direction.
asserted
needle → need → direction
They are the favorites to win the House and are within striking distance of winning the Senate, something that was seen as a long shot when this election cycle began.
asserted
cycle → win → shot
That's based not just on the polls but on conversations with campaigns and on-the-ground reporting.
asserted
That → base → ground
But here are some tips and things to remember as the deluge of polls comes your way:
asserted
deluge → remember → polls
1. Polls are not meant to be predictive.
asserted
Polls → mean → ?
They are snapshots in time of when those surveys were conducted.
asserted
surveys → conduct → time
They're also not as precise and specific as people want them to be.
asserted
them → want → ?
Remember: Polls have margins of error.
asserted
Polls → remember → error
So when someone has a 2-point lead, that's not a lead at all.
asserted
that → have → lead
If a poll has a 3 percentage-point margin of error, this means that candidate could have a 5-point lead or be losing by a point.
uncertain
candidate → have → point
Good pollsters show their work with detailed methodology pages.
asserted
pollsters → show → pages
If you can't find a methodology, that's a red flag.
asserted
that → find → methodology
There is less money for those local outlets to pay for polling, which can be very expensive.
asserted
which → be → polling
Polls are best when measuring attitudes over time to help inform us of how Americans are feeling and thinking about key issues.
asserted
Americans → measure → issues
There is so much more underneath those top-line numbers, from job approval ratings and who is most motivated to vote, to which party is more trusted to handle the issues people care about most — and so much more.
asserted
people → be → issues
The fact is that many of these races are expected to be close.
asserted
many → expect → races
Millions of votes are not yet cast, and anyone professing to know exactly what's going to happen is lying.
asserted
what → cast → votes
When you're looking at who's up and who's down, just remember that horse-race polling is like sprinkles on top of a bowl of ice cream.
asserted
polling → look → cream
Lots of people like sprinkles, but if all you eat is the sprinkles, you just wind up with a mouth full of wax without ever getting to the good stuff.
asserted
you → like → stuff
The Aporia
