Here are the Senate races to watch ahead of Election Day
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When this election cycle began, Democrats were seen as a longshot to pick up the Senate.
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Democrats → watch → Senate
But as the year has gone on and the war in Iran has continued, the field has widened considerably.
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field → go → Iran
Polling, ad money and candidate and surrogate travel have all indicated competitive races in places Trump won by double digits in 2024.
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Trump → indicate → 2024
Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas are all considered Toss Ups, according to the Cook Political Report.
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Alaska → consider → Report
"I'm very energized," said Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., chairwoman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which is charged with trying to elect Democrats to the Senate.
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which → energize → Senate
"We have so many candidates running in so many deep red and purple places, and they are winning, and it is exciting.
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it → have → places
People want change, and we have so much talent on the field right now.
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we → want → field
I feel very inspired."
The races in all of these competitive states where Trump won are within the margin of error.
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Trump → feel → error
Republicans have a decidedly different view.
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Republicans → have → view
"Senate Democrats' socialist surge has reached a fever pitch, and their desperate conspiracies to defraud voters appear criminal," said Bernadette Breslin, national press secretary for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the counterpart to the DSCC.
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Breslin → reach → DSCC
She's referring to a controversy in the Alaska Senate race about the alleged involvement of members of the campaign for the Democratic candidate, Mary Peltola, to recruit Daniel J. Sullivan to run, as first reported by The New York Times.
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She → refer → Times
The incumbent Republican is named Dan Sullivan.
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Republican → name → ?
"Common-sense voters across red-leaning battlegrounds are preparing to reject the dangerously unaffordable agendas of Abdul El-Sayed [in Michigan], Troy Jackson [in Maine], and Mary Peltola—along with the Democrat Party's dying brand.
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voters → lean → brand
But showing the direction the winds have been blowing, North Carolina, where Trump won narrowly, and was seen as a Toss Up race at the beginning of this cycle, is now seen as a likely flip for Democrats.
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Trump → show → Democrats
And Georgia, once thought to be a top Republican target, is now a likely hold for Democrats.
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Georgia → think → Democrats
Even South Carolina, a place Trump won by 18 points, is only leaning toward the Republican Party.
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Trump → win → Party
Mississippi and Nebraska are also more competitive than Republicans would like, but GOP candidates are favored there.
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candidates → like → ?
Democrats need to flip a net of four seats held by Republicans to win control of the Senate.
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Democrats → need → Senate
And while the field is wide for Democrats, winning control is hardly a done deal.
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winning → win → control
Republicans have a few targets on the board still, principally in Michigan, but also New Hampshire and Minnesota.
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Republicans → have → Michigan
Winning even one of those seriously complicates Democrats' math.
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Winning → win → math
The key to whether the Democrats win the Senate and how big the Democratic wave is, if there is one at all, is likely to be Republican turnout.
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wave → win → Senate
Low GOP turnout could mean the difference between Democrats netting one or two seats and picking up six or seven.
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Democrats → mean → six
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Let's take a look at the competitive states and where things stand, rated by tiers.
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things → load → tiers
Tiers below are in order of most to least likely to flip.
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Tiers → flip → most
Ratings are based on the Cook Political Report:
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Ratings → base → Report
Both parties concede former Gov. Roy Cooper is likely to be the next senator from the state — even President Trump apparently thinks so.
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Trump → concede → state
"He's going to become your senator," Trump said during a stop in North Carolina earlier this month, "and it's crazy."
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it → go → Carolina
2024: TRUMP +3
TIER 2: MI (D), OH (R)
MICHIGAN (D-OPEN-Peters retiring) — TOSS UP
Republicans' best pick-up opportunity, this race will test whether a bold progressive can win in a purple state with Democrat Abdul El-Sayed's candidacy.
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progressive → retire → candidacy
But also factoring in here is former moderate Rep. Mike Rogers' (R) turn to MAGA and use of racist attacks to try and win.
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turn → factor → attacks
2024: TRUMP +1
OHIO (R-Husted) — TOSS UP
Sherrod Brown's (D) decision to try for a comeback after being ousted in 2024 turned this race on its head.
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decision → try → head
He's the challenger, but with his high name recognition and time in the Senate, Republicans have treated him as an incumbent.
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Republicans → treat → incumbent
Trump has tried to boost incumbent Sen. John Husted (R) in recent weeks with explicit comments on his physique.
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Trump → try → physique
But the issues here have Republicans on the defensive — the economy, gas prices and AI data center growth have given Democrats an opening for a pathway back in a state Trump has won three times.
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Trump → have → state
The hijinks and misinformation ahead of the election here underscore that state's importance.
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hijinks → underscore → importance
Peltola appeared to have the inside track, but the late recruiting scandal threatens to derail that momentum.
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scandal → appear → momentum
2024: TRUMP +14
IOWA (R-OPEN-Ernst) — TOSS UP
From the governor's race down to the Senate and House race, Iowa looks poised to move left this cycle.
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Iowa → look → race
Democrat Josh Turek is in a tight race with Trump-backed Rep. Ashley Hinson (R).
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Turek → back → Hinson
Tariffs, the war and rising diesel prices have hurt the agricultural economy here and put Republicans on their heels.
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Tariffs → rise → heels
Plus, Democrats could get be helped by the gubernatorial run of Rob Sand (D), who has run one of the best campaigns of any candidate in the country.
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who → help → country
…and 38 more, not listed.
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