It's another day on the trail in the US, so let's dive in!
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's → let → US
Click here to see how popular US President Donald Trump is today, and click here for a quick breakdown on what the midterms are all about.
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midterms → click → what
Here's what you need to know today
- GDP vs inflation: The last economy snapshot before the midterms is out.
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snapshot → need → midterms
GDP in the third quarter rose 3.4 per cent annually.
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GDP → rise → quarter
"The country is doing unbelievably well," Trump told reporters while en route to a rally in South Carolina.
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Trump → do → Carolina
But that message might not cut through to Americans feeling the pinch after inflation sped up in September, with prices surging 3.6 per cent annually (the central bank's target is 2 per cent).
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target → cut → September
The cost of living remains the top issue for voters going into the election.
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cost → remain → election
Alaska's US Senate race involving two Dan Sullivans took another twist yesterday, when the New York Times reported Democrats sought a spoiler candidate by the same name to run against the Republican senator.
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Democrats → involve → senator
House Republicans now say they will investigate Mary Peltola, the Democratic challenger who is currently leading in the polls.
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who → say → polls
House Oversight Committee chair James Comer has announced an investigation into the matter and requested interviews with Peltola's former campaign manager and her former chief of staff.
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Comer → announce → staff
But legal experts say unless he concealed financial support, the challenging Sullivan likely didn't break any laws, and political parties are allowed to mislead the public.
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parties → say → public
Where does all that money go?
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money → go → ?
And new ones are rolling out every day.
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ones → roll → ?
A group of farmers is helping to fund $US3 million ($4.2 million) in attack ads against Republicans in some of the country's most competitive races.
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group → help → races
Trump is already facing headwinds among typically loyal rural supporters due to tariffs and high fuel costs.
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Trump → face → tariffs
Meanwhile, in Texas, Elon Musk is funding an AI-powered robocall campaign that (rather ironically) attacks Democratic US Senate candidate James Talarico for allegedly taking money from "data center special interest" groups, CNN reports.
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CNN → fund → groups
Here's what that all means
I messaged with North America correspondent Lauren Day about some of the key US Senate races we're watching.
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we → mean → races
Here's what she had to say.
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she → have → what
We're going to hear about plenty of races in the coming days.
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We → go → days
Which do you have your eyes on?
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you → have → eyes
There are too many to mention but I've just been in Michigan where progressive firebrand Abdul El-Sayed is in a tight race with Republican Mike Rogers for a US Senate seat.
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Sayed → be → seat
It will be a test of whether a left-wing candidate can win in a purple state.
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candidate → win → state
I'm also fascinated to see whether Democrat James Talarico can turn Texas blue — a holy grail for the Dems.
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Talarico → see → Dems
But the race I’ve really been obsessed with is Alaska.
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I → obsess → ?
The Democratic candidate there, Mary Peltola, has run on a campaign of Fish, Family and Freedom and is a really fascinating character.
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candidate → run → Fish
But the weirdest thing about that race is the fact there are two men named Dan Sullivan on the ballot, including the Republican incumbent.
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thing → be → incumbent
Trump has been crying foul about "Decoy Dan" and has directed the Justice Department to file a lawsuit seeking to prevent the certification of the results if their Dan Sullivan loses.
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Sullivan → cry → results
You can't make this stuff up.
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You → make → stuff
What does it mean for Trump if Republicans lose this election?
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Republicans → mean → election
If the Republicans lose either chamber, Trump's ability to advance his agenda through Congress could be severely limited and Democrats will have new power to investigate his administration.
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Democrats → lose → administration
They could also vote to impeach the president but would need two-thirds of the Senate to remove him from office, which is very unlikely, even if Democrats win the Senate.
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Democrats → vote → Senate
But of course, executive orders, agency actions and foreign policy don't need congressional approval so those powers would continue, and Trump would still veto any laws Democrats tried to push through Congress.
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Democrats → need → Congress
She wrote a brilliant deep dive on El-Sayed, which you can find here.
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you → write → which
US President Donald Trump might not be up for election at the midterms, but his popularity will have a strong influence over the outcome.
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popularity → have → outcome
The president's party almost always loses House seats in midterm elections and that trend gets steeper when the president is unpopular.
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president → lose → elections
Historic polling data collated by analytics firm Gallup shows presidents with approval ratings below 50 per cent have seen their party lose an average of 37 House seats.
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party → collate → seats
Presidents with approval ratings above 50 per cent have netted smaller loses, with an average of 14 seats.
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Presidents → net → seats
Your crash course on the midterms
LoadingAnd here's how to stay up to date
You can keep track of the latest out of the US here.
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You → stay → US
The Aporia
