Democrats still poised to make gains, but poll shows warning signs for just how many
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poll → poise → many
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Democrats retain significant midterm electoral advantages, with key data pointing to them being the favorites to win control of the U.S. House.
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them → get → House
But, there are indications of why a potential wave could be limited, a new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll finds.
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poll → be → ?
The poll also sheds light on the issues driving voters across the ideological spectrum.
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poll → shed → spectrum
The cost of living continues to be top of mind overall with a third of people saying they've experienced financial hardship in the past year and 4 in 10 saying their personal finances have gotten worse.
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finances → continue → year
"The economy is at the top of my list right now," said Shun Maurice, a 47-year-old from Arizona who participated in the poll.
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who → say → poll
He's an independent who leans toward Democrats and said high food and gas prices are a strain.
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prices → lean → Democrats
"They're too expensive for everybody, no matter who you voted for," he said.
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he → vote → who
"They're just too expensive for the American people in general, and I don't like that."
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I → like → that
Preserving democracy also continues to resonate with Democrats and independents, while immigration is the biggest concern for self-described MAGA supporters.
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immigration → preserve → supporters
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The poll of 1,289 registered voters was conducted Oct. 19-20.
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poll → load → voters
When registered voters are mentioned, the margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points.
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margin → register → error
When likely voters are mentioned, it is +/- 3.8 points.
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it → mention → ?
Most don't think Trump is doing a good job and don't like him
This was the first survey this cycle that Marist applied a likely voter screen, and on multiple questions, likely voters were — within the margin of error — slightly less likely than registered voters to disapprove of the president.
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voters → think → president
Likely voters overall were also slightly less likely to want Democrats to run Congress.
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Democrats → want → Congress
Survey researchers apply various metrics — like levels of enthusiasm, past voting history and how important voting is to different respondents — to try to identify the subsample of people who are most likely to vote.
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who → apply → people
In this survey, just 38% of registered voters approved of the job President Trump is doing, with 61% disapproving (-23).
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% → register → -23
Likely voters gave him a 40% to 59% rating (-19), still not very good, but even a slight margin can make a difference in how significant the gains either party might make in the election are.
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party → give → election
That said, an equal share — 53% — of registered and likely voters said they "strongly disapprove" of the job Trump is doing, tied with last month as the highest ever in the poll.
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Trump → say → poll
Trump's favorability rating is even lower — just 37% of likely voters have a favorable impression of Trump, while 59% have a negative one.
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% → have → one
Democrats retain the edge on the congressional ballot
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Democrats → retain → ballot
Democrats also had a strong advantage on which party's candidate people said they are more likely to vote for in their district if the election were held today, known as the generic congressional ballot.
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election → have → ballot
Among registered voters, it was a 10-point advantage.
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it → register → voters
When Democrats have had that kind of lead on the congressional ballot, they have historically done very well.
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they → have → ballot
In both years, Democrats won the House with at least 30 seats flipped.
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seats → win → House
But that was before the 2020 Census and ensuing regular redistricting — and the rare, mid-decade redistricting in the last year and a half after Trump asked Republican states to redraw their maps to potentially give Republicans more seats.
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Trump → ensue → seats
Though Democrats followed suit, both redistricting periods have tilted congressional seats in Republicans' direction and given them a relative advantage nationally.
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periods → follow → advantage
While 98% of Democratic likely voters said they would vote for a Democrat, just 81% thought the Democrat would win, a 17-point difference.
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Democrat → say → Democrat
Republicans were only 10 points less likely to believe their candidate would win.
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candidate → believe → ?
Notably, among independents, a higher share thought the Democratic candidate would win.
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candidate → think → independents
'Change' continues to be powerful
Working in Democrats' favor — and against incumbents: 55% of likely voters said it's more important in this election to vote for candidates with new ideas who will bring about change.
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who → continue → change
(It was a tick higher with registered voters at 57%.)
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It → register → %
Chris Agan, a 43-year-old Democrat in Tyler, Texas, who participated in the survey, never saw himself as an impassioned midterm voter, until this year.
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who → participate → year
This year, it feels like every opportunity to vote is a referendum against the party in power," said Agan, who's backing Democrat James Talarico over Republican Ken Paxton in the race for U.S. Senate.
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who → feel → Senate
"We've been seeing a very slow decline in the standard of living in this state, and it's becoming apparently evident to more people at this time," he added.
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he → see → time
"I think Talarico embodies that realization that there needs to be change."
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Talarico → think → realization
Double the percentage of likely voters also said their vote would be one against Trump (44%) as opposed to one for him (21%).
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vote → say → him
In the 2024 presidential election, 55% of those who voted for Trump said their vote was for their candidate, according to exit polls.
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vote → vote → polls
Trump is not on the ballot, but he has asked voters to "pretend" he is.
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he → ask → voters
Though Trump's unpopularity poses challenges for Republicans, it may not directly translate to more votes for Democrats.
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it → pose → Democrats
…and 54 more, not listed.
The Aporia
