After months of campaigning and billions of dollars spent on the US midterms, election day is finally here.
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day → spend → midterms
According to the latest public opinion surveys, Democrats appear to have the upper hand - but polls haven't always been reliable, and this year could have its own share of surprising results.
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year → accord → results
In broad strokes, however, there are three possible outcomes after Americans have their say.
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Americans → be → say
Here's a look at what they could be, what the early signs might be as results come in – and what it could mean for the country.
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it → come → country
If history is any guide, midterm elections tend to favour of the out-of-power party.
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elections → tend → party
Add in what polls suggest is a historically unpopular president, a war with Iran that has driven up consumer costs and some controversial policies - like aggressive immigration enforcement and support for data centre construction - and you have the conditions for a so-called electoral wave.
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you → add → wave
In this first scenario, a huge wave is exactly what happens.
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what → happen → scenario
Democrats could not only take control of the House of Representatives but far surpass the 218 seats needed for a majority.
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Democrats → take → majority
They may win not only the dozen or so races that election analysts rate as too-close-to-call, they could also flip some seats in more solidly conservative terrain.
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they → win → terrain
In the Senate, this scenario would require Democrats to win all or most of the current crop of races that are toss-ups, including some in traditionally conservative states.
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that → require → states
There would be at least one eye-popping victory in a place that hasn't elected a Democrat in a generation, Texas, or in nearly a century in the case of Kansas.
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that → pop → Kansas
If this did happen, Democrats wouldn't just take control of the Senate, they would do so with a seat or two to spare.
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they → happen → seat
This might avoid any drama around a potential legal challenge by Republicans in Alaska where a judge dismissed a Trump administration lawsuit over two Dan Sullivans being on the ballot.
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Sullivans → avoid → ballot
Democrats might accomplish this by boosting turnout of their voters and winning independent voters by sizable margins.
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Democrats → accomplish → margins
This would reverse Trump's 2024 inroads with Hispanic voters and young men.
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This → reverse → voters
Some Republican voters might also support the Democrats or just stay home.
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voters → support → Democrats
This kind of a result would represent a stinging rebuke for Trump and his Republican Party, setting up two years of conflict between a newly invigorated Democratic Party with its hands firmly on the lever of legislative power and a president who seldom backs away from a fight.
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who → represent → fight
Early signs as the results come in:
If Democrats hold targeted House contests in Florida and win some Republican districts in North Carolina, Michigan, New York, Virginia and Kentucky. If they flip the Senate seat in South Carolina, it's going to be a good night for Democrats.
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it → come → Democrats
In this scenario, it could be that while they take enough of the low-hanging fruit in the US House contests to deliver a majority, it's not a sizable one.
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it → take → majority
This would mean Democratic leaders in the chamber would regularly have to wrangle with their fringe members on the left and the centre to ensure they have enough votes to pass legislation.
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they → mean → legislation
On the Senate side in this hypothetical, the Democrats would just flip a seat or two - North Carolina, for instance, seems all but assured - but the contests in the conservative heartland would prove to be out of reach.
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contests → flip → reach
Perhaps they're unable to unseat stubbornly resilient Republican Senator Susan Collins in Maine or left-wing candidate Abdul El-Sayed can't keep Michigan in the Democratic column.
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Sayed → unseat → column
Maybe the duelling Dan Sullivans controversy is enough to sink Democratic candidate Mary Peltola in Alaska.
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controversy → duel → Alaska
For this "Democratic trickle" scenario to unfold, the big Democratic turnout we've seen in early voting would be matched by a Republican surge on election day.
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we → unfold → day
Trump's efforts to rally his base in Republican red states could help his party avoid the worst-case scenario.
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party → rally → scenario
The races that were at or near the margin of error in polls might provide a mixed bag for both parties.
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that → provide → parties
The result would be a divided Congress - and that's a recipe for political gridlock.
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that → divide → gridlock
Early signs as the results come in:
If Florida stays comfortably Republican across the board.
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Florida → come → board
If Democrats pick up some House seats in places like Virginia and Pennsylvania, but the Republican incumbents on more secure political ground across the country avoid getting washed away in a deluge.
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incumbents → pick → deluge
A good night for Republicans
This scenario involves Republicans resiliently holding on to both chambers of Congress.
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Republicans → involve → Congress
For this to happen, the polls - which have previously underestimated Trump's support - need to be wrong and the toss-up races to mostly fall the way of Republicans.
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races → happen → Republicans
Not only would Republican voters have to turn out in unexpectedly impressive numbers, independent and Hispanic voters who had seemingly soured on Trump's policies would have also to break his way in the end.
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who → have → end
In this scenario, control of the House, far from being a done deal for Democrats, could end up coming down to California and its extended days-long counting process for mail-in ballots.
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control → do → ballots
In the end, Republicans might eke out a slim overall majority thanks in part to efforts to draw more favourable congressional district lines in places like Texas, Florida and North Carolina.
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Republicans → eke → Texas
It could also be that Republicans win all the Senate contests in the conservative states and they also flip Michigan, a seat that was held by Democrats heading into the vote.
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that → win → vote
Even if Republicans don't hold North Carolina or win in Democratic-controlled Minnesota or New Hampshire - races just on the periphery of competitiveness in this year's elections - they may at least make the Democratic candidates sweat.
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candidates → hold → elections
If this was to happen, Trump might on Wednesday morning would claim a renewed electoral mandate and push forward with his domestic and foreign policy agenda with the continued support of a Republican Congress.
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Trump → happen → Congress
Early signs as the results come in:
If Senators Ashley Moody in Florida and Jon Husted in Ohio cruise to re-election.
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Moody → come → election
If Republicans hold their own in House races in Pennsylvania and Virginia, and they flip current Democratic seats in North Carolina, Ohio and Florida.
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they → hold → Carolina
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Readers → sign → UK
…and 1 more, not listed.
The Aporia
