As US President Donald Trump hits the campaign trail in the final sprint to the midterm elections, he is launching an emphatic defence of America's economic performance, trying - as he often does - to bend reality to his will.
asserted
he → hit → will
"We have the best economic numbers of any president in the history of our country, and yet people don't know about it because the press won't talk about it," he said last week.
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he → have → it
While some economic indicators, including roaring stock market indexes and low US poverty rates, are indeed historic, the overall picture is not nearly as rosy.
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picture → include → indexes
Trump is often dismissive of concerns about affordability and the high cost of living in the US, describing them as "fake" and a Democrat-inspired "hoax".
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Trump → live → fake
The American public, however, sees it differently - and some key economic indicators provide ample evidence for their discontent.
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indicators → see → discontent
Inflation remains high at 3.4%, outpacing wage growth.
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Inflation → remain → growth
The average cost of petrol has soared to $4.37 (£3.30) a gallon and beef prices are at a record high.
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prices → soar → high
According to a YouGov survey, 63% of respondents believe the economy is "getting worse".
uncertain
economy → accord → respondents
An AP/NORC poll released last week found just 17% of adult Americans approve of the president's handling of cost-of-living issues, while 26% approve of his handling of the economy overall.
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% → release → economy
Those polls also suggest that many of Trump's policies, including tariffs, aggressive immigration enforcement and the ongoing conflict with Iran, are widely unpopular.
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many → suggest → Iran
"We ask our voters their motivation to turn out, and what we find is cost of living, cost of living, cost of living," said Avery James, the director of communications at the Republican-aligned polling company Echelon Insights.
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James → ask → company
That has left Republicans running for office in the Congressional elections on 3 November with an agonising choice - should they be distancing themselves from Trump?
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they → leave → Trump
Their fear is that by echoing his sunny outlook they risk losing a number of electoral races that are currently projected to be very tight.
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that → echo → races
But they also know that being seen to break with the president on the state of the economy is far from consequence free.
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seen → know → economy
The economy looming large
There are few Republican politicians as loyal to the president as Floridian House Congressman Byron Donalds.
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economy → loom → Donalds
But even in the president's adopted home, which he carried in each of his three elections and which hasn't had a Democratic governor since 1999, candidates like Donalds are finding themselves having to adapt their pro-Republican messaging to acknowledge economic concerns.
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themselves → adopt → concerns
Donalds - who stood by Trump as he fought his way back to power after his 2020 election defeat and took a prominent role in his 2024 election campaign - is now running for governor of Florida, with Trump's encouragement and enthusiastic endorsement.
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he → stand → encouragement
When I saw him at a Hispanic church in Kissimmee, he was preaching to the proverbial choir - but pitching his message with a nod to the fact that for many money is currently tight.
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money → see → many
"We're the best state in America," he said before acknowledging: "But success has gotten expensive."
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success → say → America
He ticked through a laundry list of Florida constituents – retirees, teachers, emergency workers, restaurant staff and local government employees, flagging that they need to be able to "make ends meet".
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ends → tick → constituents
In his stump speech, Donalds didn't mention Trump at all.
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Donalds → mention → Trump
He leaned heavily into stories of his own financial hardship during his younger years, of living paycheque to paycheque and waiting tables at the traditional southern style restaurant chain Cracker Barrel.
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He → lean → chain
When he invited audience questions, there were the usual cultural hot-button topics, like the perceived threat of Sharia law in America, transgender athletes in women's sports and youth crime in public spaces.
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he → invite → spaces
But his supporters also wanted to talk about the high cost of housing - insurance, taxes, mortgage rates and home-owner fees - and healthcare worker shortages.
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supporters → want → housing
Trump may have mocked the term affordability, but Donalds – who is criss-crossing the state on an "affordability tour"
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who → mock → tour
It was a similar track at a campaign event in a Tampa seafood market the next day, when Bryan Avila, who is running for lieutenant governor on the same ticket as Donalds, took questions on energy prices and data centre construction.
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who → run → prices
"Everything is going up in prices, from food to even books for people going to college," said John Carroll, who serves on a Florida county housing commission.
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who → go → commission
Meanwhile in Texas, Governor Greg Abbott last month went to Texarkana to host a "rural affordability roundtable".
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Abbott → go → roundtable
"We must lower costs for Texans in every corner of our state, and with my affordability agenda we will help make Texas the most affordable state in America.
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Texas → lower → America
And in Iowa, Ashley Hinson, a Republican congresswoman running for Senate, unveiled her own "affordability agenda".
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Hinson → run → agenda
"Iowans are paying the price for Washington's failures, and they deserve real relief that actually lowers costs," she said.
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she → pay → costs
Hinson also recently called for the president to quickly end the Iran war – a sentiment echoed by Republican Senate candidates in Ohio and Michigan.
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president → call → Ohio
Two of Hinson's Iowa colleagues in the House of Representatives went so far as to vote for a Democratic-backed measure to curtail Trump's war powers in Iran.
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Two → go → Iran
For the past two years it has been Republicans who control the levers of power in the nation's capital – from the White House to both chambers of Congress.
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who → control → Congress
Inevitably, that makes for a challenging rhetorical pirouette among Republican candidates this time round when it comes to touching on Trump's less popular policies.
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it → make → policies
The Donalds-Donald relationship
Even Donalds has faced allegations that he is trying to open daylight between himself and Trump.
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he → face → himself
The media was awash in reports recently that he had removed most prominent mentions of Trump from his campaign website.
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he → remove → website
It was a story Donalds quickly denied – and one that prompted an angry response from the president himself.
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that → deny → president
"Another Fake Story is that a very close friend of mine, a man I endorsed very early, Byron Donalds, is taking me off his website and campaign materials," Trump posted on his Truth Social website.
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Trump → endorse → website
"If Florida thought the story that Byron 'dropped' me was true, he would lose the election, and that would be a terrible thing because he's going to be a fantastic governor!"
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he → think → election
…and 42 more, not listed.
The Aporia
