The midterms will test the nation's political direction and confidence
Millions of Americans are looking to Tuesday's midterm elections with heightened anticipation or anxiety.
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Millions → test → anticipation
At this point, we can expect at least some portion of the nation to have its political confidence — and perhaps even its sense of security — tested in the days and weeks ahead.
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confidence → expect → days
That test could also continue for some time to come.
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test → continue → time
Is winter coming for MAGA?
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winter → come → MAGA
The first place to look for elevated anxiety about the midterms would be among those voters most loyal to President Trump.
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place → look → Trump
He calls them MAGA, borrowing from his 2016 "Make America Great Again" theme.
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America → call → theme
Alternatively, with a broad smile, he just calls them "my base."
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he → call → them
But winter may be coming.
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winter → come → ?
Polling suggests that on Tuesday the midterm electoral pendulum will once again swing back against the White House incumbent — as it has in every midterm over the last 100 years with very few exceptions.
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it → suggest → exceptions
More punishment for the party of the second-term president would be expected in the blue states that he lost in each of his three White House campaigns.
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he → expect → campaigns
But this fall's polls are also pointing to significant losses for Republicans in swing states and even in some of the red states Trump won all three times — often by double-digit margins.
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Trump → point → margins
That is why the president spent the last weekend of this campaign on making an electoral "goal line stand" for the Senate by visiting Iowa and Kansas.
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president → spend → Iowa
When Trump, then a first-time candidate, was at high tide 10 years ago, he won 31 Iowa counties that had previously voted for Democrat Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.
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that → win → 2008
And as for Kansas, the historically Republican state has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.
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state → elect → 1932
Yet Trump put live visits to Iowa and Kansas on his schedule for the final weekend, even as he did remote "tele-rallies" in 19 other states.
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he → put → states
(The Iowa-Kansas plan was briefly cancelled late in the pre-election week, then reinstated just before the weekend.)
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plan → cancel → weekend
That strategy suggests Trump's political team remains focused on limiting GOP losses in what will be a tough environment for their party.
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what → suggest → party
Most observers, including those searching hardest for objective measurements, now predict Trump's party will lose its slim majority in the House.
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party → include → House
The consensus is that the Senate is too close to call, and it is possible the GOP could hold the majority using the tie-breaking vote to which Vice President Vance is entitled.
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Vance → call → which
But precedent is not really the explanation for Trump and his party's expected defeats.
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precedent → expect → defeats
Midterm elections inevitably act as referenda on current officeholders, and
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elections → act → officeholders
Put another way, presidents are the leaders and symbols of their party, but Trump has taken the personalization to another level.
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Trump → put → level
Presidents routinely campaign for their party's midterm candidates, but Trump ("Pretend I'm on the ballot") has worked hard to make the election about himself.
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election → campaign → himself
In Trump's first term he tried out a more conventional approach, acting as an executive in a system of shared powers.
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he → try → powers
This time around, Trump has taken that role as a starting point.
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Trump → take → point
He has cast himself as the driver of historic events and the avenger of many wrongs — large or small, real or imagined.
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He → cast → wrongs
He presents himself as the architect of a new Washington and the author of a new era.
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He → present → era
And he has done it all despite objections from U.S. allies around the world and from Congress and from the federal bench.
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he → do → bench
How it's playing depends on audience
While Trump's bravura interpretation of his role has played well with his base, the larger electorate is a different story.
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electorate → play → base
Among the more effective themes taken up by anti-Trump rallies has been the ultra-simple, anti-autocrat mantra of "No Kings."
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mantra → take → Kings
Critics and Democrats have been able to focus on promises and pronouncements Trump has made but on which he has yet to deliver.
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he → focus → which
These foreign policy issues matter, but to voters the greater disappointment is economic.
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disappointment → matter → voters
Trump said he would make things cheaper and tame inflation.
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things → say → inflation
But inflation remains elevated and the public sees the price of gas leading a sustained surge in everyday costs.
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price → remain → costs
So it should be no surprise that any average of Trump's recent approval numbers shows them falling from a clear majority (52% in average of polls) early in 2025 to an average of 37% now — breaking below the 40% threshold that has signaled brutal midterm results in the past.
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that → show → past
But are Democrats ready to take over?
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Democrats → take → ?
On the other hand, the confidence some Democrats are showing may be premature.
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Democrats → show → hand
If they win the House, their majority will be on the modest side by historic standards.
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majority → win → standards
If they eke out a majority in the Senate it will be so narrow that the primary beneficiaries are likely to be the mavericks who are willing to buck the party leadership — on both sides of the aisle.
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who → eke → aisle
Moreover, even robust Democratic majorities would need to confront the significant divisions that persist — and may be growing — in their ranks.
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that → need → ranks
…and 38 more, not listed.
The Aporia
