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A history professor who has accurately predicted the outcome of nine of the last 11 presidential races has issued his final assessment of the 2026 midterms.
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who → sign → midterms
Allan Lichtman, a historian who works at American University in Washington, DC, is predicting that Democrats will sweep both the US House and the US Senate on Tuesday of next week.
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Democrats → work → week
The two races he got wrong were predicting that Kamala Harris was set to win in 2024, and that Al Gore would beat George Bush in 2000.
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Gore → get → 2000
In an interview with the Times, Lichtman revealed that President Donald Trump's approval ratings, national polling, voter enthusiasm and early voting trends all point toward a punishing night for Republicans.
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ratings → reveal → Republicans
'When the approval rating for a president is as low as Trump's, on average the White House party loses 40 House and six Senate seats,' Lichtman told The Times.
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Lichtman → lose → Times
'It's not a prediction, that's just showing how heavily the winds are blowing against Republicans.'
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winds → show → Republicans
Lichtman said Democrats are leading Republicans by seven to 11 points on the generic congressional ballot, which he considers more reliable than individual race polls.
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he → say → polls
He also pointed to an unusual enthusiasm advantage for Democrats.
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He → point → Democrats
'Usually Republicans turn out at a higher rate but this time it looks like the Democratic enthusiasm is higher,' he said, adding that early voting also 'looks pretty good for Democrats.'
Lichtman puts Democrats' chances of capturing the Senate at 67 percent, with his most likely outcome a 51-49 Democratic majority.
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outcome → turn → percent
Historian and American University professor Allan Lichtman answers questions during an interview in September of 2024
A person fills their ballot in early voting for the midterm elections on October 25, 2026 in Cary, North Carolina
That would represent a remarkable turnaround.
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That → answer → turnaround
Democrats entered the cycle needing a net gain of four seats to overcome Republicans' 53-47 advantage, with many of the biggest contests taking place on traditionally Republican turf.
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many → enter → turf
Lichtman blamed part of the GOP's struggles on 'really bad' candidates, pointing to Ken Paxton in Texas, Roger Marshall in Kansas and Darline Graham in South Carolina.
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Lichtman → blame → Carolina
It's a shame — our system is founded on sovereignty of the people, not sovereignty of wealth,' he said of the enormous outside spending pouring into races.
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he → found → races
Lichtman predicts Democrats will flip Senate seats in Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas while holding Michigan.
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Democrats → predict → Michigan
He also believes Alaska could fall to Democrat Mary Peltola.
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Alaska → believe → Peltola
'It's amazing that Democrats are competitive in South Carolina, which Trump won by 18 points,' he said.
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he → win → points
'Kansas has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since the Great Depression in 1932 and yet that's a neck-and-neck race, as is Iowa.
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Iowa → send → 1932
'If you had told me the map would look like this eight months ago, I would have said you were nuts.'
Republicans currently hold a razor-thin 218-214 majority but Lichtman believes that will be wiped away on Tuesday night.
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that → tell → night
'Democrats need so few seats to take the majority.
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Democrats → need → majority
I give it over a 90 percent chance,' Lichtman said.
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Lichtman → give → chance
South Carolina Republican Darline Graham campaigns alongside President Donald Trump in Pendelton last week
Democratic nominee for US Senate in Michigan Abdul El-Sayed speaks during a campaign event Wednesday, October 14, 2026, in Detroit
Texas Democratic candidate for US Senate James Talarico speaks at a rally ahead of the midterm elections in Lubbock, Texas
The historian compared the political environment to 1966, when Democrats suffered heavy losses under Lyndon Johnson as the Vietnam War soured and unrest spread across the country.
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unrest → campaign → country
Lichtman remains confident despite incorrectly predicting Kamala Harris would win the 2024 presidential election.
'No one has a record like that.
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one → remain → that
Not even close,' he said.
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he → say → ?
My system is based on history,' Lichtman added.
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Lichtman → base → history
And he believes Democrats could be heading toward an even bigger victory if not for record outside spending.
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Democrats → believe → spending
'It would be a huge Democratic sweep if not for the intervention of the billionaires,' Lichtman also noted, calling out the likes of Elon Musk.
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Lichtman → note → Musk
Per CNN, Musk had spent over $400 million backing Republicans this year as of mid-October.
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Musk → spend → October
The Aporia
