- Published
The Democratic Party has high expectations as it heads into these pivotal US midterm elections.
asserted
it → publish → elections
A historically unpopular Republican president, an American public unhappy with the rising costs of food and bills, and months of favourable polls point to a good night for them on Tuesday.
Democratic candidates lead in well over the 218 seats needed to flip control of the lower chamber of Congress, the House of Representatives, the polls suggest.
asserted
polls → rise → Representatives
And they are tied or narrowly ahead in the key Senate races.
asserted
they → tie → races
A recent New York Times poll had the Senate race in South Carolina, a state Donald Trump won by 18 percentage points in 2024, as a tie.
asserted
Trump → have → tie
Recent CNN surveys put the Democrats ahead in Texas, Kansas and Maine.
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surveys → put → Texas
Recent US political history is littered with examples where public opinion polls, even ones just days before an election, were off the mark.
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polls → litter → mark
Trump outperformed predictions on his way to White House victories in 2016 and 2024.
asserted
Trump → outperform → 2016
His narrow defeat in 2020 came after most surveys indicated a more comfortable win for Democrat Joe Biden.
asserted
surveys → come → Biden
Earlier this year, polls suggested Democrat Abdul El-Sayed was poised for a double-digit win in Michigan's Democratic Senate primary.
uncertain
Sayed → suggest → primary
In Wisconsin's Democratic primary for governor, the candidate that had a polling lead that approached 20 points lost by a fraction of a percent.
asserted
that → have → percent
According to Clifford Young, president of Ipsos Public Affairs, which conducts political and market research surveys, polling has become difficult in recent years because it's harder to reach Americans as they abandon their land lines and screen their calls.
uncertain
they → accord → calls
And many of those who pollsters do contact have become less willing to participate.
asserted
pollsters → contact → who
"Conservatives, especially those on the far right, are much more anti-establishment by nature," Young says.
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Young → say → nature
"And they don't participate in anything.
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they → participate → anything
They hate the system.
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They → hate → system
"
If Republican voters are being undercounted in a systematic way, and polling companies don't take that into consideration when constructing their voting models, it could skew their data towards the Democrats.
uncertain
it → undercounte → Democrats
That's one of the reasons why it has become trickier for pollsters to predict what the electorate will look like.
asserted
electorate → become → what
One explanation for why Trump overperformed in previous presidential elections is that his supporters – many of whom were not regular voters – flocked to the polls in higher-than-expected numbers.
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many → overperforme → numbers
That unpredictability is one of the main contributing factors to those notable recent polling misses, even if the margins in most reputable polls were only off by a few percentage points.
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margins → contribute → points
In a close race, those few points can make the difference between victory and defeat for a candidate.
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points → make → candidate
In recent years, midterm general election polls have proven to be more accurate, in part because Trump - and his unique ability to draw disaffected Americans to the polls - was not on the ballot.
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Trump → prove → ballot
In 2022, they suggested Democrats would defy conventional expectations and avoid an electoral wipe-out despite Biden's low approval numbers.
uncertain
Democrats → suggest → numbers
While the party lost control of the House of Representatives, the margins were slim and Democrats maintained control of the US Senate.
asserted
Democrats → lose → Senate
While this year's primary results did provide bigger surprises, Young says that nominating contests have historically been volatile, with voters more likely to make up their minds at the last minute.
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voters → provide → minute
It shouldn't be seen as an indication that the current crop of general election polls are off the mark.
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crop → see → mark
It's common for the party of the president to have a bad night in the midterms.
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party → have → midterms
One of the most notable examples in recent years came in 2010 when Republicans flipped more than 60 House seats and made gains in the Senate.
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Republicans → come → Senate
It came off the back of an economy struggling to recover from the financial crash and conservative fears over President Barack Obama's healthcare reforms.
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It → come → reforms
A defeat had been predicted by the polls but not quite on that scale.
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defeat → predict → scale
The roles are reversed this time, with the Democrats in opposition and the economy on the minds of voters.
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Democrats → reverse → voters
But there are a number of reasons why Democrats may not have as good a night as history might suggest or as some might expect, given Trump's low approval rating.
uncertain
some → be → rating
Firstly, much of the territory in play in this election Trump conquered with ease in the presidential election just two years ago.
asserted
Trump → conquer → election
Then there have been changes to House election boundaries over the years that have meant fewer seats switch between parties.
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seats → mean → parties
Some experts describe the electorate as calcified.
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experts → describe → electorate
There's also the cash advantage Republicans have enjoyed which has given them hundreds of millions of dollars to spend on attack ads in the final weeks.
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which → be → weeks
Polling models try to capture shifting fundamentals.
asserted
models → try → fundamentals
And a well-designed poll is built to anticipate issues that may make it less than reliable.
uncertain
it → design → issues
Individual polls do have a built-in margin of error – a statistical level of uncertainty based on the sampling size compared to the population as a whole.
asserted
polls → have → whole
Taken as an aggregate, polling averages and not individual surveys can provide a more accurate prediction.
asserted
averages → take → prediction
At the moment, even the kind of polling lean we saw in recent presidential elections would suggest Democrats are likely to have a good night on 3 November.
asserted
Democrats → see → November
…and 12 more, not listed.
The Aporia
