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what → sign → Hill
Polling guru Nate Silver said that if the Democrats win both the House and Senate in the midterm elections it will be 'the end of the Trump era.'
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it → say → era
Silver has been bullish on liberals' chances to overtake the GOP in the November 3 elections, with his model two weeks ago giving the party a 94 percent chance of winning the House and a 75 percent chance of taking the Senate.
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model → overtake → Senate
Speaking to Ezra Klein of The New York Times, he said a Democrat sweep could be 'momentous.'
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sweep → speak → Times
'If the election goes roughly as the polls say it will go, then in some ways it would mark the end of the Trump era, I think,' Silver said.
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Silver → go → era
While Silver acknowledged that Trump will 'still be President for two more years,' those results would leave him 'a super lame duck' akin to George W Bush after the 2006 midterms.
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results → acknowledge → midterms
Silver said that states like Kansas and Texas flipping blue could provide 'generational turnover.'
'After 2024, there was talk of a permanent conservative vibe shift, that Democrats were on their back heels and Biden had failed and wokeness was dumb,' he said.
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he → say → heels
However, as President Trump suggested repeatedly at recent rallies, there is typically blowback against the party in power at the midterms.
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Trump → suggest → midterms
Polling guru Nate Silver said that if the Democrats win both the House and Senate in the midterm elections it will be 'the end of the Trump era'
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it → say → era
While Silver acknowledged that Trump will 'still be President for two more years,' those results would leave him 'a super lame duck' akin to George W Bush after the 2006 midterms
'
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results → acknowledge → midterms
The most regular trend in American elections, one of the few things that survives for decades is there is a backlash against the president's party at the midterm,' Silver said.
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Silver → survive → midterm
'Maybe a little bit bigger if a president is in his second kind of lame duck term, but you know, we can recite the exceptions on one hand.
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we → know → hand
While Silver acknowledged that some Republicans could overperform the polls like Susan Collins in Maine, he believes the Democrats may be set to deal a serious blow to Trump and the GOP.
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Democrats → acknowledge → Trump
The White House largely dismissed Silver's predictions in a statement to The Daily Beast.
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House → dismiss → Beast
'Underestimating President Trump and this administration have proven the experts and pollsters wrong every single time,' White House spokesman Ingle Davis said.
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Davis → underestimate → Trump
Republicans are being forced to fight for seats they have long taken for granted as Trump's unpopularity and mounting economic frustrations threaten to upend the party's midterm election hopes.
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unpopularity → force → hopes
Senate Republicans in deep-red Mississippi and Kansas are facing unexpectedly competitive races from Democrats, while GOP House incumbents in Colorado and Minnesota are also battling well-funded opponents just a week before Election Day.
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incumbents → face → Day
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll completed October 26 found Trump's approval rating at just 32 percent, with 66 percent disapproving.
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percent → complete → percent
Democrats also led Republicans 53 to 44 percent among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot, after undecided voters' preferences were accounted for.
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preferences → lead → ballot
Some 73 percent of respondents said the cost of living was moving in the wrong direction.
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cost → say → direction
The Washington Post reported Tuesday that the difficult political environment, fueled by Trump's standing with voters and anger over tariffs and the war in Iran, has forced supposedly safe Republican incumbents to do something they rarely need to worry about: Campaign heavily to hold on to their seats.
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they → report → seats
Mississippi Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith, who is seeking reelection in a state Trump won by 23 percentage points in 2024, has been pushed into a tougher-than-expected contest against Democrat Scott Colom.
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Trump → seek → Colom
A progressive-leaning Change Research poll of 842 likely voters conducted October 21-22 put Hyde-Smith ahead of Colom by just three points, 43 to 40 percent.
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poll → lean → points
Hyde-Smith has raised a little over $6 million for her reelection bid, but her campaign has been dogged by missteps, including comments about rising grocery prices that her opponent turned into a viral attack ad.
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opponent → raise → ad
When asked about the cost of meat, Hyde-Smith pointed to cheaper protein alternatives, remarks that have become a target for Democrats seeking to capitalize on voters' concerns about affordability.
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that → ask → affordability
Trump traveled to Mississippi on Monday night to campaign for Hyde-Smith, who praised him as the best president in her lifetime.
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who → travel → lifetime
Despite the difficult environment, Hyde-Smith remains favored to win, according to the Post.
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Smith → remain → Post
Silver cited states like Texas and Kansas, where Democrats haven't won in generations, but could see James Talarico (pictured) in the Senate
Former NC Governor Roy Cooper was praised by Silver as a good pick for his Senate race
Democrats have not won a Mississippi Senate race since 1982.
Kansas Republican Senator Roger Marshall is facing a similar challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton, despite winning his first Senate term by double digits.
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Marshall → cite → digits
The latest polling average published by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ on October 27 put Hamilton at 46.2 percent and Marshall at 45.8 percent, essentially a toss-up.
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average → publish → percent
The figures underscore how competitive the race has become in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932.
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that → underscore → 1932
Marshall has raised $6.9 million this election cycle, far less than Hamilton's $16.3 million, and has faced criticism over his comments dismissing high gas prices and his handling of patients with medical debt.
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Marshall → raise → debt
Trump is heading back to Texas for a fourth visit this election season on Tuesday, holding rallies in Corpus Christi and Lubbock to boost embattled Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton as he battles Democrat James Talarico in a tightening race.
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he → head → race
The warning signs extend beyond the Senate.
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signs → extend → Senate
In Colorado, Republican Representative Lauren Boebert moved to a more conservative district before the 2024 election, but Democrat Eileen Laubacher has raised $13.7 million compared with Boebert's $1.2 million.
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Laubacher → move → Boebert
In southern Minnesota, Republican Representative Brad Finstad is facing a serious challenge from Democrat Jake Johnson, who has consistently out-raised him.
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who → face → him
Outside groups have spent about $276,000 supporting Finstad, while more than $3.1 million has been spent opposing him, according to FEC filings.
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million → spend → filings
Outside Democratic groups are also pouring millions into the race, despite Trump winning the district by double digits in 2024.
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Trump → pour → 2024
According to a Washington Post analysis published October 14, they've poured more than $1.2 billion into advertising across competitive congressional races nationwide, with spending accounting for more than half of all advertising in over 70 percent of those races.
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spending → accord → races
The situation echoes the 2010 midterms, when Democrats suffered major losses during the Tea Party wave, including the defeat of longtime Minnesota Representative Jim Oberstar in a district he had won by 35 percentage points two years earlier.
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he → echo → points
But the Post cautioned that even a significant Democratic wave may produce fewer seat changes than in previous elections because redistricting has left Republicans with fewer House seats in Democratic-leaning districts.
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redistricting → caution → districts
The Aporia
