As voters across the United States head to the polls for the midterm elections – widely seen as a referendum on President Donald Trump’s second term in office – the state of California is set to play an important role.
asserted
state → head → role
Several races across the country’s most populous state could help determine whether the Democratic Party takes control of the US House of Representatives, where Trump’s Republican Party currently holds a slim majority.
uncertain
Party → help → majority
Recommended Stories
list of 3 items- list 1 of 3California’s billionaire tax faces a precarious road from rich opposition
- list 2 of 3Tracking the money: The biggest donors in the 2026 US midterm elections
- list 3 of 3Who is leading the US midterm polls as Trump and Harris campaign?
asserted
Trump → face → polls
California’s ballot initiatives – or policy decisions made by voters – have also received national attention.
asserted
initiatives → make → attention
Perhaps the biggest difference in this year’s elections, however, is the introduction of new congressional district maps drawn up through a partisan redistricting initiative approved by California voters last year.
asserted
difference → draw → voters
That initiative aims to net at least five additional Democratic Party seats in the House, where Republicans have a four-seat majority.
asserted
Republicans → aim → majority
Which California races are competitive, who are the main candidates and how has the state’s redistricting push changed the electoral landscape?
asserted
push → change → landscape
The election will be held on Tuesday, November 3.
asserted
election → hold → Tuesday
Mail ballots must be postmarked by election day.
asserted
ballots → postmark → day
The House is divided into 435 districts, each represented by one member of Congress elected by their constituents.
asserted
House → divide → constituents
While congressional districts are populated equally, their boundaries are set by states and can shift.
asserted
boundaries → populate → states
Partisan redistricting involves states drawing those district maps in a way that advantages candidates from one party over another.
asserted
that → involve → another
California Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat and Trump critic, first proposed a one-time statewide redistricting effort in response to seven Republican-led states redrawing their maps in an attempt to secure seats for Republicans.
asserted
states → propose → Republicans
Although California had banned partisan redistricting
asserted
California → ban → redistricting
, Newsom pitched the idea as an unfortunate but necessary retaliatory measure.
asserted
Newsom → pitch → measure
California voters approved the redistricting plan in a 2025 ballot measure – Proposition 50 – that temporarily suspended the state’s nonpartisan redistricting commission until 2030.
asserted
that → approve → 2030
California then drew new maps to make several Republican strongholds more competitive for Democratic challengers.
asserted
strongholds → draw → challengers
As a result, the handful of districts previously seen as favourable terrain for Republicans have instead become hotly-contested races between the two parties.
asserted
handful → see → parties
What races are being watched?
asserted
races → watch → ?
California has 52 members in the House of Representatives – the most of any state – with Republicans holding just eight of the seats.
asserted
Republicans → have → seats
One is the 22nd congressional district, located in California’s agriculture-rich Central Valley.
asserted
One → locate → Valley
The district map was redrawn under Proposition 50, setting up one of the state’s most contentious races in a former Republican stronghold.
asserted
map → redrawn → stronghold
Incumbent Republican Representative David Valadao is locked in a tight race with Democratic challenger Randy Villegas.
asserted
Valadao → lock → Villegas
Valadao has portrayed himself as a moderate, while Villegas has hammered him over issues such as the rising cost of living, healthcare and Trump’s immigration crackdowns – a key issue for the area’s immigrant farm-working communities.
asserted
Villegas → portray → communities
California’s 48th district, a traditionally Republican stronghold which includes parts of San Diego County near the border with Mexico, is also considered highly competitive after its boundaries were redrawn.
asserted
boundaries → include → Mexico
The district’s longtime representative, Republican Darrell Issa, decided to retire after the redistricting, with two local officials – Republican Jim Desmond and Democratic San Diego Councilmember Marni von Wilpert – now vying for the seat.
asserted
officials → decide → seat
While California’s redistricting aimed to make historically reliable Republican districts more competitive for Democrats, the process has also had some unexpected impacts:
asserted
process → aim → impacts
Two Republican members of Congress, Representatives Ken Calvert and Young Kim, have found themselves locked in a bitter race against each other after redrawn maps put them in the same district.
asserted
maps → find → district
Who is running for governor?
asserted
Who → run → governor
Vying to replace Governor Newsom are Republican political commentator Steve Hilton and Democrat Xavier Becerra.
asserted
Hilton → vie → Newsom
Hilton has blasted Becerra for rising crime and homelessness as well as high fuel prices in California, where a gallon (3.78 litres) of petrol costs $5.95 compared with $4.22 nationally, according to the American Automobile Association.
uncertain
gallon → blast → Association
Heavily favoured in the Democratic stronghold state, Becerra has sought to associate Hilton with Trump, who is deeply unpopular among Californians.
asserted
who → favour → Californians
Polls show Becerra with a strong lead over the Republican challenger.
asserted
Polls → show → challenger
A recent Emerson poll suggested that he was ahead by 27 points.
uncertain
he → suggest → points
What ballot initiatives are voters deciding on?
asserted
voters → decide → initiatives
California voters will also weigh in on a handful of policy questions, including a tax on billionaires and whether the state should adopt mandatory voter ID.
asserted
state → weigh → ID
The measure is one of three impacting the state’s ultra-wealthy residents, with the referendums dubbed the “billionaire battle”.
asserted
referendums → impact → residents
The tax would apply to about 200 of the wealthiest people in California, according to the news website CalMatters.
uncertain
tax → apply → website
The proposition is opposed by powerful industries and tech titans, who have poured more than $152m into fighting the ballot measure compared with $33m raised in support of the tax, a California public radio station KQED reports.
asserted
station → oppose → tax
The measure has drawn opposition from figures such as Google cofounder Sergey Brin, who has given more than $102m to defeat the referendum, as well as Hilton, Becerra and Newsom.
asserted
who → draw → referendum
…and 7 more, not listed.
The Aporia
