Talk to Republicans around Washington and battleground states about the midterms and their talking points are all but in chorus: the polls are wrong and undercounting GOP voters.
asserted
polls → talk → voters
Talk to Democrats, and it’s giddy optimism mixed with an equal measure of trepidation, but for a whole other reason: all those predictions of a blue wave could give thousands of their voters permission to stay home.
uncertain
predictions → talk → permission
“We’ve all been burned,” says one former staffer on Democratic campaigns.
asserted
staffer → burn → campaigns
The polls currently show Democrats may be on the verge of an historic blowout.
uncertain
Democrats → show → blowout
President Donald Trump has the lowest approval ratings of his two terms in office and threatens to be a drag on most Republicans on the ballot.
asserted
Trump → have → ballot
Democrats are in a strong position to snag a majority in the House and the Senate is still in play, but ideological fractures and a party brand that’s in the gutter stand to undermine their showing.
asserted
that → snag → showing
Republicans, meanwhile, are on track to outspend Democrats in some pivotal races.
asserted
Republicans → outspend → races
A particularly messy election season could mean the polls are way off—or mostly on target.
uncertain
polls → mean → target
Why the polls might be wrong
"I'm telling you, these polls are off.
uncertain
polls → tell → you
They use faulty analysis," said House Speaker Mike Johnson over the weekend, as he fights to save the House and his job.
asserted
he → use → House
It’s been the drumbeat of the GOP talking-head circuit in recent weeks, as party leaders try to buck up a decidedly unenthusiastic base with talk of rigged surveys that overcount Democratic voters.
asserted
that → try → voters
That enthusiasm gap is quantifiable; about three-quarters of Democratic voters say voting this year is “extremely” important while roughly 6 in 10 Republicans say the same, according to Associated Press polling.
uncertain
Republicans → quantifiable → polling
And yet, there is some truth to the notion that pollsters have trouble with Republicans, who are more likely to ignore pollsters’ calls or even mislead them.
asserted
who → be → them
Past pre-election surveys have repeatedly over-hyped Democrats’ chances of winning.
asserted
surveys → hype → chances
In the last three presidential races, the election results underestimated Trump’s strength heading into Election Day.
asserted
results → underestimate → Day
Republicans are emphasizing that trend, even though similar errors don’t usually occur in midterm election years.
asserted
errors → emphasize → years
“Let’s ask Hillary Clinton how fake the fake polls are.
asserted
polls → ask → ?
We don’t pay those polls any mind,” rapper Nicki Minaj recently said aboard Air Force One in a video clip posted by a senior White House official.
asserted
Minaj → pay → official
“Obviously, they are to deter our voters from going out and casting their vote.”
More recently, some polls have been off, but not in a way that necessarily helps the Republicans’ argument.
asserted
that → deter → argument
Last year’s polling in New Jersey’s and Virginia’s gubernatorial races actually underestimated Democrats’ chances; both went blue.
asserted
both → underestimate → chances
Why the polls might be right
No matter how loudly Republican talking heads say the polls are overcounting Democrats, that historically is just not the case in years when a presidential race is not on the ballot.
uncertain
race → say → ballot
In 2022, Democrats narrowly outperformed expectations, leading to a Red Wave that proved smaller than Republicans had hoped.
asserted
Republicans → outperform → Wave
While that was portrayed as a big polling miss by some, in reality, the polls were largely on track, despite some regional exceptions.
asserted
polls → portray → exceptions
A big reason why polls are more accurate in midterm elections is because figuring out who is most likely to make it to the polls is less of a challenge for pollsters.
asserted
who → figure → pollsters
In off-year, low-turnout elections, politics doesn't dominate the zeitgeist.
asserted
politics → dominate → zeitgeist
“SNL isn’t opening with a skit on the Nebraska Senate race,” another Democratic strategist says.
asserted
strategist → open → race
In other words, it’s easier to pinpoint those voters who are dialed into an election when the White House isn’t in play.
asserted
House → ’ → play
After all, many people can’t even name their member of Congress, let alone have a strong opinion on them.
asserted
people → name → them
As much as Trump keeps saying he’s on the ballot this fall, he objectively is not.
asserted
he → keep → ballot
Both sides are acting like the polls are accurate
While Republicans insist polls are underestimating their support, their allocation of resources suggests they believe what the polls in key battlegrounds are telling them.
uncertain
polls → act → them
For instance, as polls showed Democrat Roy Cooper well ahead of Republican Michael Whatley in North Carolina’s Senate race, Republicans largely pulled their funding, a clear sign they believed that Cooper’s victory is all but assured.
asserted
victory → show → funding
But the current environment remains unsettled at best.
asserted
environment → remain → ?
How else to explain that red states like Texas, Iowa, and even Kansas may actually elect a Democrat to the U.S. Senate?
uncertain
states → explain → Senate
Even so, Republicans are dismissing polling trends in many battlegrounds, and instead citing selected polls that show them still in contention or at least within the margin of sampling error.
asserted
them → dismiss → error
Nationally, the generic ballot certainly favors Democrats and Trump is undeniably a drag on Republicans who have to stand with their party’s leader or face his wrath.
asserted
who → favor → wrath
Some Republican nominees have turned out to be lackluster and underperforming national party leaders’ expectations.
asserted
nominees → turn → expectations
Others, such as Vivek Ramaswamy in Ohio’s race for Governor, have stepped in it and seem unable to clean their shoes.
asserted
Others → step → shoes
(So badly did a Ramaswamy attack ad backfire, the non-partisan Cook Political Report last week moved that race from a “Toss Up” to “Lean Democrat.”
asserted
Report → backfire → Democrat
We’re on the verge of taking back control of the House,” Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries said over the weekend.
asserted
Jeffries → ’re → weekend
But first, Democrats understand, they have to show up and not take the polling as permission to stay home on Election Day.
asserted
they → understand → Day
…and 8 more, not listed.
The Aporia
