Quebec separatists are favored to win the provincial election on October 5, which could test Prime Minister Mark Carney’s message of national unity against U.S. President Donald Trump. Polls show the Parti Québécois (PQ) with about 30% support, enough potentially for a majority in Quebec's National Assembly under the first-past-the-post system. PQ leader Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon has said he would call for an independence referendum once conditions allow, likely not during Trump’s presidency.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-05,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Story summary
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, leader of the separatist Parti Québécois (PQ), made his final pitch to undecided voters over the weekend ahead of Quebec's provincial election on October 5, 2026. Throughout the campaign, the PQ has consistently led in polls despite a general lack of enthusiasm among Quebecers for sovereignty. St-Pierre Plamondon has promised to hold a referendum on independence by 2029 but faces criticism from rivals who argue it would cause instability and economic harm.
About 25% of eligible voters had already cast their ballots through advanced voting, heightening the stakes as all five main parties—PQ, Quebec Liberals, Quebec Conservatives, Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), and Quebec Solidaire—are expected to win seats. If elected, the PQ would be poised for a comeback after winning only 3 seats in 2022, marking its lowest total since founding in 1968.
Written for “Quebec Election And Separatism” on 2026-10-05,
grounded in this article and the 8 other(s) covering the same event.
Quebec separatists favoured to win Canada vote in test for Carney
MONTREAL –
asserted
separatists → favour → Carney
Quebec separatists are favoured to win the election on Oct 5 in Canada’s majority French-speaking province, testing Prime Minister Mark Carney’s message of national unity to confront the United States.
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separatists → favour → States
Carney is popular in Quebec, and the expected success of the separatist Parti Quebecois (PQ) is not seen as a repudiation of his defiance towards US President Donald Trump, whose trade war and annexation threats have infuriated Canadians.
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war → expect → Canadians
The PQ’s possible return to power after 12 years in opposition is tied to frustration over affordability and declining public services, rather than a growing desire among Quebecers to leave Canada, experts and polls say.
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experts → tie → Canada
Recent surveys put support for an independent Quebec at roughly 30%.
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surveys → put → %
Polls also give the PQ about 30% support, but in the province’s first-past-the-post electoral system that could be enough to secure a majority in the 127-member National Assembly, with the federalist vote expected to split among several parties.
uncertain
vote → give → parties
PQ leader Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon, a 49-year-old lawyer known widely by his initials PSPP, insists he will call a referendum on leaving Canada if elected, just not while Trump is in office.
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Trump → know → office
In August, he said a decision on Quebec’s independence “requires conditions that allow for an informed and calm debate”.
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that → say → debate
That debate shouldn’t be “hijacked by the theatrics of an unpredictable president”, he added, ruling out a referendum until at least 2029.
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he → hijack → 2029
Quebec has held two previous votes on leaving Canada.
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Quebec → hold → Canada
Federalists won comfortably in 1980, but the 1995 result was excruciatingly close, with just 50.58% voting to stay in Canada.
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% → win → Canada
Polls in the province of roughly 9 million people open at 9.30am local time, and the results should be known a few hours after voting ends at 8pm.
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voting → open → pm
PSPP has attacked Carney’s federal government and said that, if he is elected premier, the relationship will be defined by a “balance of power”.
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relationship → attack → power
“There will be dialogue, but the condition for cooperation is that Quebec be respected,” he told public broadcaster Radio-Canada.
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he → respect → Canada
If Quebec is not respected, “I won’t sweep under the rug the fact that it’s unacceptable”, he added.
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he → respect → fact
Carney is facing a complex set of conflicting forces.
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Carney → face → forces
His Liberal government enjoys broad support, and many Canadians credit him with leading national – and at times international – opposition to Trump.
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Canadians → enjoy → Trump
But in addition to the possible return of separatist governance in Quebec, voters in the oil-rich province of Alberta will hold a non-binding vote this month on whether they want independence.
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they → hold → independence
Asked on Oct 1 about the upcoming Quebec vote, Carney assured his government would work “with the next Quebec premier in a spirit of cooperative federalism”.
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government → ask → federalism
‘Abolish the monarchy?’
PSPP may not have majority backing for an independent Quebec, but his plans to target the British monarchy appear far more popular.
uncertain
plans → abolish → monarchy
King Charles III, Canada’s head of state, is represented in Ottawa by the governor general.
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III → represent → general
Lieutenant-governors represent the monarchy in the provinces, including Quebec.
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governors → represent → Quebec
In a 2025 Leger poll, 87% of Quebecers said they felt no attachment to the British monarchy, and only 31% expressed a favourable view of King Charles.
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% → say → Charles
“There is nothing preventing (Quebec’s) National Assembly from acting as a sovereign parliament and passing a law that abolishes the activities of the lieutenant-governor and no longer allocates a budget to this masquerade that wastes money
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that → be → money
,” said PSPP.
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PSPP → say → ?
He has proposed reallocating the lieutenant-governor’s budget to combat homelessness.
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He → propose → homelessness
The Aporia
