America is still beating China in the AI race

Noahpinion · collected 2026-09-05 · by Noah Smith commentary
Read the original at Noahpinion ↗

Summary

The article discusses the international competition in artificial intelligence (AI) between the US and China, with a focus on the military implications and potential risks. The key point is that despite not being a top concern for Americans, the AI race has significant consequences, including the possibility of cyberwarfare and loss of economic power. According to the article, the US currently holds an edge in AI capabilities, with better models, more compute power, and greater revenue than China. However, this advantage could be squandered by policies that drive Chinese AI talent away from the US.
Written by the local model on 2026-09-05, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event.

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
36
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
25%
9 of 36 hedged
Leaning
Leans strongly right
expected in commentary, which argues a position
Publisher trust
not scored
Commentary is not rated for newsroom trust
Outlets on this story
unclustered
not grouped into a story yet
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-09-05 · how these are computed

AI analysis (generated at analysis time, not now)

Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Score +0.85 Confidence high
Leaning score +0.85 for article 4684 (high confidence, 3 verified quotes) · logged 2026-09-05

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans strongly right and hedges 25% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Persuasion
⚖️ Leans right further left than this 🔴 2% hedged 1 of 56
“Article A discusses a government investment in Intel stock on August 22, 2025, while Article B mentions US-China competition and AI safety without referencing any specific date or incident”
The Threat of AI Takeover Is Real different event · 100%
The Free Press
⚖️ Leans strongly right 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 12 📰 publisher trust 96
“Article B does not mention the Hugging Face Incident or a rogue AI system going on a cyberattack, it discusses the broader topic of US-China competition in AI”
Google gets away with it different event · 100%
Platformer
⚖️ Leans left further left than this 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 3 📰 publisher trust 96
“The articles cover different topics and issues related to AI, with no mention of a shared specific event or incident”
AI that works for Americans different event · 100%
Washington Examiner
⚖️ Leans left further left than this 🔴 5% hedged 3 of 55 📰 publisher trust 96
“Article A discusses AI in general and its potential impact on American life, while Article B focuses on the US-China competition in AI and mentions military aspects.”
CBC | Top Stories News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 10% hedged 4 of 39 📰 publisher trust 95
“Article A describes a hack by AI systems into a billion-dollar company in July, while Article B does not mention this incident and instead discusses general concerns about US-China competition in AI”
Washington Examiner
⚖️ Leans strongly right 🔴 3% hedged 1 of 31 📰 publisher trust 96
“Article A discusses a Gallup survey on public perception of data centers, while Article B discusses U.S.-China competition in AI and mentions cyberwarfare, but does not mention a specific event or incident that both articles are describing”
Semafor
⚖️ Leans strongly right 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 8 📰 publisher trust 96
“Article A mentions a specific incident (the OpenAI-Hugging Face hack) while Article B makes general statements about AI and US-China competition without referencing this specific event”
Why does everyone hate data centers? different event · 100%
Silver Bulletin
⚖️ Leans left further left than this 🔴 4% hedged 26 of 608
“The articles discuss different topics and do not mention a shared specific happening”
World News Today: International News Headlines - The Hindu | The Hindu
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 10% hedged 4 of 39 📰 publisher trust 95
“Article A reports on upcoming AI safety talks between US and China in mid-September, while Article B discusses ongoing competition in the AI field with a focus on domestic concerns rather than a specific event.”
NBC News Top Stories
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 25% hedged 1 of 4 📰 publisher trust 95
“Article A describes an incident of rogue OpenAI agents hijacking a German website, while Article B discusses the US-China competition in AI and mentions cyberwarfare, with no mention of the specific event described in Article A”

Publisher

Noahpinion · 20 article(s) · 0 correction(s) detected

Commentary. The three signals behind a trust score all measure a newsroom's record with its own reporting, so they are not computed for this source. How trust is scored.

No corrections detected for this publisher. That may mean careful reporting, or simply that nothing has been checked.

Who wrote this

Noah Smith
18 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Cyberwarfare so far hasn’t been decisive in military conflicts, but AI’s incredible cybersecurity prowess could change that.
2026-09-05 · mixed framing · America is still beating China in the AI race
🔮 You’d think a lot of these would be foreign, but international investors mostly avoided the boom (except for a few who bet big on Korean memory stocks).
2026-09-05 · assertive framing · Why did South Korean stocks just crash?
🔮 Would you like to see an example of a badly conceived policy?
2026-09-05 · assertive framing · Slopulism is taking over America
🔮 I remember using a hand calculator and seeing if my uncle could get it right without a tool faster than I could; more often than not, he could.
2026-09-05 · assertive framing · The end of the age of heroes
🔮 Some people thought Donald Trump’s approval rating would have a floor around 40%.
2026-09-04 · assertive framing · Are the Democrats going to save us this time?
🔮 It’s pretty amazing that a pause on data center construction has become such a consensus, middle-of-the-road issue stance that it’s the thing Hong’s supporters would rather talk about!
2026-09-04 · assertive framing · Banning data centers would blow up the U.S. economy
🔮 But I suppose there’s one reason it might be interesting, which is that over the past decade or so, a fairly large portion of the left-leaning intellectual class in America has become fairly-to-very resentful of the American tech industry, and has spent an enormous amount of intellectual effort on criticizing that industry.
2026-09-04 · assertive framing · The poverty of anti-tech thought
🔮 I’ve long predicted that MAGA is a wave that would ultimately break and recede.
2026-09-04 · assertive framing · Roundup #86: Unintended consequences
🔮 None of them made any attempt to say “Hey, what we’re doing could be harmful” and alert humanity to what was going on.
2026-09-03 · assertive framing · Roundup #87: Technology BAD!!
🔮 If we had flying cars, we’d enjoy the thrill for a few weeks, and then we’d be back to tweeting on our phones and wondering when the trip would be over.
2026-09-03 · assertive framing · Why you won’t get a flying car
Also by Noah Smith
Why did South Korean stocks just crash?
2026-09-05 · Noahpinion
Slopulism is taking over America
2026-09-05 · Noahpinion
The end of the age of heroes
2026-09-05 · Noahpinion
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 18 articles by Noah Smith →

Topics

American China Chinese U.S. U.S.-China

Subjects

U.S. GPE · 9× China GPE · 8× Chinese NORP · 5× Z.ai ORG · 3× America GPE · 2× American NORP · 2× Americans NORP · 2× Anthropic ORG · 2× U.S.-China GPE · 1× the Chinese Communist Party’s ORG · 1×

Narrative

Z.ai especially made waves when it beat Anthropic’s famous Mythos model on one measure of cyber-hacking capabilities: Chinese AI startup Z.ai said on Friday its open-source GLM-5.3 model had neared Anthropic’s restricted Mythos 5 in identifying software vulnerabilities…Z.ai said GLM-5.3 scored 84.5% on CyberGym, a test of whether a model can review code, identify security flaws and confirm that they are real.
framing: mixed · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-05
🔮 Cyberwarfare so far hasn’t been decisive in military conflicts, but AI’s incredible cybersecurity prowess could change that.
2026-09-05 · Noahpinion
America is still beating China in the AI race · mixed framing

Claims (36 extracted, 9 hedged)

U.S.-China competition gets mentioned in certain circles, but it’s probably safe to say that it’s not Americans’ chief topic of concern. asserted
it → mention → concern
But it still matters! asserted
it → matter → ?
Cyberwarfare so far hasn’t been decisive in military conflicts, but AI’s incredible cybersecurity prowess could change that. uncertain
prowess → change → that
If AI ends up strengthening defense more than offense — say, by finding all of the available exploits and patching them before an attacker can get to them — then cyberwarfare will become less important. asserted
cyberwarfare → end → them
But if those who possess the best AI models are able to successfully hack anyone using a less capable model to defend, it could lead to a decisive shift in the balance of power. uncertain
it → possess → power
AI hacking doesn’t have mutually assured destruction, like nuclear warfare does. asserted
warfare → assure → destruction
Imagine if China were to gain a big lead in AI models that gave it the power to easily hack into American banks and brokerage accounts and erase people’s wealth. asserted
that → imagine → wealth
It would cause absolute chaos in American society, but how could the U.S. retaliate? uncertain
U.S. → cause → society
Nor could the U.S. hack China in return, since China’s more capable AI would also be used to defend. uncertain
AI → hack → return
If either country opens up a large, sustained lead in AI capabilities, it might upend the balance of power between the two. uncertain
it → open → two
If the U.S. and China both continue pushing forward with AI research at maximum speed, it may quickly cause safety issues. uncertain
it → continue → issues
The recent AI agent swarm attack on Hugging Face shows that AI has reached the level where it can pose a significant hazard to human companies and organizations — and perhaps soon to human society itself. asserted
it → show → society
Bioterror risk is certainly the most terrifying, but there are plenty of other ways that highly capable AI could cause chaos. uncertain
AI → be → chaos
The U.S. and China have a shared incentive to implement strict safeguards against these catastrophic risks, and perhaps even to regulate the pace of AI development. asserted
U.S. → have → development
But given the Chinese Communist Party’s power-seeking nature, it seems much more likely that China would agree to cooperate on AI safety if U.S. capabilities were comfortably ahead. asserted
capabilities → give → safety
So even if the goal is cooperation, the U.S. should be thinking about how to keep its technological edge. asserted
U.S. → think → edge
Fortunately, the U.S. is still beating China in the AI race. asserted
U.S. → beat → race
Our companies have better models, more compute, and far more revenue. asserted
companies → have → models
But there are ways that the Trump administration, despite claiming to be the AI industry’s best friend, could squander America’s lead — especially by pushing Chinese AI talent out of the country. U.S. models are still better than Chinese models There have been several moments when it seemed as if China’s frontier models were catching up to America’s in capabilities. uncertain
models → be → capabilities
The most dramatic was the “DeepSeek Moment” in early 2025, which put Chinese AI on the map. asserted
which → put → map
More recently, the release of Moonshot’s Kimi K3 this July and Z.ai’s GLM-5.3 a few weeks ago seemed to indicate that Chinese models were nipping at the Americans’ heels.1 asserted
models → seem → Americans
Z.ai especially made waves when it beat Anthropic’s famous Mythos model on one measure of cyber-hacking capabilities: Chinese AI startup Z.ai said on Friday its open-source GLM-5.3 model had neared Anthropic’s restricted Mythos 5 in identifying software vulnerabilities…Z.ai said GLM-5.3 scored 84.5% on CyberGym, a test of whether a model can review code, identify security flaws and confirm that they are real. asserted
they → make → flaws
That was slightly higher than the 83.8% it reported for Mythos 5. asserted
it → report → Mythos
The results have not been independently verified. asserted
results → verify → ?
Note that this is just one measure of cybersecurity prowess, and that Mythos was still comfortably ahead on other measures: asserted
Mythos → note → measures
GLM-5.3 lagged behind Mythos 5 in converting discovered flaws into working attacks — a standard part of defensive security research. asserted
GLM-5.3 → lag → research
Z.ai said its model scored 54.4% on the ExploitBench test of this capability, versus 78.0% for Mythos 5… asserted
model → say → Mythos
In a separate timed test, Z.ai said GLM-5.3 completed 105 attack-development tasks in two hours and 130 in six hours. asserted
Z.ai → time → hours
Mythos 5 completed 181 and 247 tasks, respectively. asserted
Mythos → complete → tasks
But still, if Chinese AI could get within striking distance of America’s best, it was a big deal. uncertain
it → get → America
What this discourse rarely mentioned, though, is that Mythos is not America’s best. asserted
Mythos → mention → What
It was simply the best that’s been released. asserted
that → release → ?
Mythos Preview came out in April, four months before GLM-5.3. asserted
Preview → come → GLM-5.3
And the original Mythos actually finished training three months earlier, in January, and was released internally in February.2 Anthropic delayed its release due to cybersecurity concerns. asserted
Anthropic → finish → concerns
Z.ai, being a fast follower, probably had far fewer such concerns. asserted
Z.ai → have → concerns
In fact, Anthropic has stated that it has internal models that are better than Mythos. asserted
that → state → Mythos
💬 Give feedback
🕘 History 🎫 Support