Russia is holding parliamentary elections from September 18 to 20, four years after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Despite Putin’s declining approval ratings and high casualty numbers—nearly 500,000 killed out of 1.5 million total casualties—United Russia is expected to maintain its majority in the State Duma. Current polling shows United Russia with 37% support compared to the Communist Party’s 11.6%, while opposition parties like Yabloko are facing restrictions. The article highlights Putin’s perceived need to continue the war despite minimal territorial gains, driven by fear of appearing weak and potential backlash from pro-war factions.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-18,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Story summary
Russian parliamentary elections, held from September 18-20, were widely expected to see United Russia, President Vladimir Putin's party, maintain its dominance over the State Duma (lower house of parliament). Despite critics arguing that the outcome was predetermined and would have no significant impact on the country’s future, Russian authorities made persistent efforts to ensure high voter participation under current electoral law. The elections came amidst increasing war fatigue and economic hardship due to Ukraine's drone strikes targeting oil refineries and warehouses within Russia, causing fuel shortages and internet blackouts.
Exit polls conducted by independent groups at embassies and consulates abroad revealed starkly different results from those inside Russia: New People, an opposition party, garnered around 45% of the votes compared to United Russia’s reported near-58% support domestically. These discrepancies highlight a divergence between domestic and international perceptions of Putin's popularity, with many Russian expatriates opposing the war and expressing anxiety over its economic and social consequences.
Critics argue that these elections are more about demonstrating the regime's resilience than reflecting genuine public sentiment or political contestation, given the tight control exercised by the Kremlin.
Written for “Russia's Wartime Elections” on 2026-10-05,
grounded in this article and the 64 other(s) covering the same event.
Russia is holding its first parliamentary elections since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine more than four years ago.
asserted
Russia → hold → Ukraine
They come amid plummeting approval ratings for Vladimir Putin, mounting casualties on the frontline and minimal territorial gains in the grinding war.
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They → come → war
The country’s electoral system is tightly controlled and Putin’s United Russia party is expected to retain its majority in the State Duma, which comprises 450 members.
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which → control → members
It currently has 310 seats and needs to win at least 300 in order to retain its supermajority.
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It → have → supermajority
Polling released ahead of the elections shows that United Russia enjoys 37 per cent of support while the next closest opposition, the Communist Party, lags behind at 11.6 per cent, according to state pollster VTsIOM.
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opposition → release → VTsIOM
Elections will take place between 18 and 20 September.
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Elections → take → place
The other opposition parties consist of the ultra-nationalist Liberal Democrat Party of Russia and the anti-Ukraine war liberal Yabloko Party, which was banned in the party-list ballot by the Supreme Court.
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which → consist → Court
But Putin has been showing increasing signs of weakness, conceding that Ukrainian attacks on energy had been unprecedented and caused more impact than expected.
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attacks → show → impact
The Institute for the Study of War reported that “Ukrainian forces have held Russian forces to near-zero net gains since March 2026” in an assessment released on Sunday.
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forces → report → Sunday
It suggested that the Kremlin is “trying to convince the United States to force Ukraine to cede territory that Russian forces have shown no ability to take on the battlefield” in an effort at “cognitive warfare”.
Support across the country is dropping with Putin’s approval rating falling by 12.2 percentage points between late December and late April to 65.6 per cent, in figures released by the state pollster in May this year.
The Kremlin expressed a more conciliatory approach on Tuesday, suggesting that Donald Trump’s proposal on a ceasefire with Ukraine on energy targets is a “good idea” after months of deadlocked negotiations amid the ongoing Iran war.
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proposal → suggest → war
“He [Putin] believes he is winning, and that progress has not been faster because Russia is not fighting just Ukraine but a substantial part of Nato,” says John Lough, head of foreign policy at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre and Nato’s first permanent representative in Moscow.
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Lough → believe → Moscow
“He has no incentive to stop now since this would signal weakness and would risk a response from the 10-15 per cent of society that is strongly pro-war.
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that → have → society
“Part of this group might resort to violence if it felt betrayed.
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it → resort → violence
The elites and society are quiescent since criticism of the war leads to jail sentences.
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criticism → lead → sentences
“We should also remember that around a third of the population has benefited from the war as resources have been directed to increased defence spending.
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resources → remember → spending
An anti-war constituency undoubtedly exists in Russia, but it is not organised and is forced to remain silent.”
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it → exist → Russia
Nearly 500,000 Russians have been killed in the conflict with a total of 1.5 million casualties in total, according to UK defence official Air Chief Marshall Sir Richard Knighton, Chief of the UK’s defence staff.
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Russians → kill → staff
The limited progress on the battlefield could lead to further mobilisation after the elections.
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progress → lead → elections
But support for compulsory mobilisation has continued to fall from 24 per cent in early 2023 to 11 per cent in 2026, according to the Kyiv-based Institute for Conflict Studies and Analysis of Russia (IKAR).
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support → continue → Russia
“The Russian army continues to suffer casualties of around 30,000 a month,” says Lough.
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Lough → continue → 30,000
“It can recruit the same number, but this is not enough to relieve soldiers who have been serving for a year or more.
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who → recruit → year
This is creating pressure to consider further mobilisation but it’s not an option favoured by the Kremlin because society is worried about it.
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society → create → it
“There are already reports of men of conscription age leaving the country in anticipation of another round of mobilisation.
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men → be → mobilisation
“It’s likely that the Kremlin will try to boost the numbers by persuading more students, for example, to sign contracts.
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Kremlin → ’ → contracts
It needs better educated personnel to operate drones and other hi-tech equipment.
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It → need → drones
It doesn’t just need infantry soldiers for the ‘meat grinder’.”
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It → need → grinder
It means that Russia could potentially become desperate, with Lough stating that the Russian side is “becoming less inhibited” and “less worried about the risks of overspill into Nato territory in the case of drones and missiles missing their targets”.
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drones → mean → targets
This was evidenced by attacks on a train that missed a group of foreign dignitaries, including former prime minister Boris Johnson on Sunday.
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that → evidence → Sunday
The Aporia
