The Aporia
The Aporia
Schoen, D., & Cooperman, C. (2026, November 2). SCHOEN, COOPERMAN: Democrats close in as Republicans scramble to hold Congress. Fox News. https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/schoen-cooperman-democrats-close-republicans-scramble-hold-congress
Schoen, Doug, and Carly Cooperman. “SCHOEN, COOPERMAN: Democrats close in as Republicans scramble to hold Congress.” Fox News, 2 Nov. 2026, https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/schoen-cooperman-democrats-close-republicans-scramble-hold-congress.
Schoen, Doug, and Carly Cooperman. “SCHOEN, COOPERMAN: Democrats close in as Republicans scramble to hold Congress.” Fox News, November 2, 2026. https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/schoen-cooperman-democrats-close-republicans-scramble-hold-congress.
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As of November 2, 2026, Democrats are projected to win significant gains in the U.S. midterms, with a margin of 11 percentage points, marking one of the largest swings for any party in nearly two decades. Polls indicate that Donald Trump has the lowest approval rating of any U.S. president going into a midterm election since Harry Truman. Despite this, Republicans are making a final push to prevent what is expected to be a "thumping" in the midterms. Over 100 million people are likely to cast ballots, and over $11.6 billion has already been spent on political advertisements for the 2025–26 election cycle. Key races include governor elections in 36 states, with control of Congress being a major prize as Democrats attempt to wrestle majorities from Trump's Republicans.
In the closing days of the 2026 midterm cycle, all available evidence suggests that the trends are moving in Democrats’ favor.
Polls, forecasts, and prediction markets are now ringing alarm bells for Republicans, as virtually all key races move in Democrats’ direction.
Final polls ahead of the election show all or most of the seven key races shifting to the left, including in Kansas, where Democrat Adam Hamilton leads in the four most recent polls, including one from The Washington Post in which he led Republican incumbent Roger Marshall by 9%.
Other Republican-held seats in South Carolina, Iowa, Maine, Texas and Ohio are also increasingly within reach for Democrats. Of those races, South Carolina and Iowa are the only two where the Republican candidate has a polling lead, but it’s under three points in South Carolina and under one point in Iowa.
Thus, both races are statistically tied and within reach for Democrats. In the other states — Maine, Texas, Ohio and Michigan — the polls have consistently shown Democratic candidates leading.
