Trump’s favorite pollster says Democrats will win big in the midterms and have substantial majority in House

Read the original at The Independent ↗
Cite

Dobkin, R. (2026, October 28). Trump’s favorite pollster says Democrats will win big in the midterms and have substantial majority in House. The Independent. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-harry-enten-polls-democrats-house-midterms-b3075169.html

Dated from the outlet's own feed. Check the original for its byline.

The Independent · collected 2026-10-28 · by Rachel Dobkin

Quick Summary

Harry Enten from CNN, a pollster favored by Donald Trump, predicts Democrats will win big in the upcoming midterms and secure a substantial majority in the House of Representatives. Based on current trends, Enten estimates that Democrats could gain at least 218 seats needed for control, up from 206 seats leaning toward them last year. Despite Trump’s campaigning efforts and financial incentives for Republicans, historical data and recent polls suggest a strong Democratic performance, with a New York Times/Siena University poll showing an 11-point lead nationally in House races.
Written by AI on 2026-10-29, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

Donald Trump's favorite pollster, Harry Enten from CNN, predicts that Democrats will win big in the upcoming midterm elections and secure a substantial majority in the House of Representatives. Despite Trump campaigning fiercely for Republican candidates with daily rallies and financial incentives, Enten’s analysis suggests Democrats are on track to gain control of the House. A year ago, there were 206 House seats leaning toward Democrats; now that number is up to 223, surpassing the required 218 seats for a majority. Trump has acknowledged Enten's credibility, calling him "six times more popular than any other President," although he typically dismisses unfavorable polling as fake news.

Written for “Democrats Set for Midterm Wins” on 2026-10-29, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Reading Leans left (beta estimate) Confidence high 1 quote(s) discarded as not found in the article
Leaning: leans left for article 112839 (high confidence, 1 verified quote) · logged 2026-10-29

Story

📰 Democrats Set for Midterm Wins
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 24% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
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“While both articles discuss predictions by Harry Enten regarding Democratic success in the midterms, they appear to be reporting on separate statements made at different times rather than a single event.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
17
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
24%
4 of 17 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
59/100
The Independent's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-29 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

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Who wrote this

Rachel Dobkin
94 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Donald Trump’s favorite pollster, Harry Enten from CNN, has predicted that Democrats will win big in next Tuesday’s midterm elections and have a substantial majority in the House of Representatives.
2026-10-28 · mixed framing · Trump’s favorite pollster says Democrats will win big in the midterms and have substantial majority in House
🔮 Log in President Donald Trump has revealed the one condition that will get him to accept the results of the upcoming midterm elections, even if his party loses races.
2026-10-27 · mixed framing · Trump reveals the one condition that will get him to accept midterm results
🔮 Trump has insisted throughout the war that it would be a quick operation, but it has now dragged on for nearly eight months.
2026-10-26 · assertive framing · Obama unloads on Trump over the Iran war and mocks the president’s diplomatic strategy
🔮 Trump has said it will cost about $400 million to build his dream ballroom and promised he and other donors would pay for it.
2026-10-26 · assertive framing · Bill Clinton is not a fan of Trump’s White House renovations
🔮 The same could not be said for another member of the progressive House group AOC is part of, called “The Squad.” The president continued his attacks against Representative Ilhan Omar from Minnesota Sunday, calling her a “little troublemaker.” “She comes from Somalia — probably, maybe the worst country in the world,” Trump said.
2026-10-25 · assertive framing · Trump focuses on Nicki Minaj’s ‘beautiful’ rear, AOC and owning Greenland in marathon rally speech
🔮 Trump said El-Sayed “should never be allowed inside the halls of our great, beautiful Capitol building in Washington, D.C.,” adding that his supporters will elect his pick, Mike Rogers, a former Republican congressman, to the U.S. Senate.
2026-10-25 · assertive framing · Trump demands metal detectors for Abdul El-Sayed at US capitol as he spew attacks at Democrat during rally
🔮 Trump has insisted throughout the war that it would be a quick operation, but it has now dragged on for nearly eight months.
2026-10-24 · assertive framing · Obama unloads on Trump over the Iran war and mocks the president’s diplomatic strategy
🔮 Trump has said it will cost about $400 million to build his dream ballroom and promised he and other donors would pay for it.
2026-10-24 · assertive framing · Bill Clinton is not a fan of Trump’s White House renovations
🔮 Miller has now warned that the Trump administration should believe Democrats when they say they will go after those who have committed crimes.
2026-10-24 · assertive framing · Katie Miller warns that Democrats are serious about going after Trump staffers who commit crimes
🔮 The Department of State announced last week that Noem’s time as special envoy to the president’s Shield of the Americas security initiative in the Western Hemisphere had come to an end, but that she would continue at the department as a senior adviser.
2026-10-24 · assertive framing · Kristi Noem accused of putting out a fake press release about her leaving Trump administration role
Also by Rachel Dobkin
Trump reveals the one condition that will get him to accept midterm results
2026-10-27 · The Independent
Bill Clinton is not a fan of Trump’s White House renovations
2026-10-26 · The Independent
Trump focuses on Nicki Minaj’s ‘beautiful’ rear, AOC and owning Greenland in marathon rally speech
2026-10-25 · The Independent
Trump demands metal detectors for Abdul El-Sayed at US capitol as he spew attacks at Democrat during rally
2026-10-25 · The Independent
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 94 articles by Rachel Dobkin →

Topics

CNN Congress Democrats House Republicans

Subjects

House ORG · 6× Enten PERSON · 5× Democrats NORP · 4× CNN ORG · 3× Republicans NORP · 3× Trump PERSON · 3× Congress ORG · 2× Harry Enten PERSON · 2× Republican NORP · 2× Independent NORP · 1×

Narrative

“The best person on CNN is pollster Harry Enten, because he was willing to show that Donald J. Trump is six times more popular than Abraham Lincoln, George Washington, or any other President — He’s got Credibility (Don’t fire him!)” Trump wrote on Truth Social last month.
framing: mixed · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-29
🔮 Donald Trump’s favorite pollster, Harry Enten from CNN, has predicted that Democrats will win big in next Tuesday’s midterm elections and have a substantial majority in the House of Representatives.
2026-10-29 · The Independent
Trump’s favorite pollster says Democrats will win big in the midterms and have substantial majority in House · mixed framing

Claims (17 extracted, 4 hedged)

Donald Trump’s favorite pollster, Harry Enten from CNN, has predicted that Democrats will win big in next Tuesday’s midterm elections and have a substantial majority in the House of Representatives. asserted
Democrats → predict → Representatives
The president has been fiercely campaigning for republican candidates, holding daily rallies and even promising $5,000 to Americans if Republicans keep control of Congress. asserted
Republicans → campaign → Congress
But CNN’s chief data analyst has suggested it may not be enough to win the House, where it takes 218 seats to form a majority. uncertain
it → suggest → majority
Enten, averaging numbers from election forecasters, found that a year ago, there were 206 House seats that at least leaned Democrat for the next Congress. asserted
that → average → Congress
We’re now talking 223 seats. asserted
We → talk → seats
This is north of the 218 that Democrats need to take back the U.S. House of Representatives,” Enten said on CNN News Central Wednesday. asserted
Enten → need → Central
While Trump would typically brush off unfavorable polling as fake, he has already admitted that Enten’s “got credibility.” asserted
Enten → brush → credibility
“The best person on CNN is pollster Harry Enten, because he was willing to show that Donald J. Trump is six times more popular than Abraham Lincoln, George Washington, or any other President — He’s got Credibility (Don’t fire him!)” Trump wrote on Truth Social last month. asserted
He → show → Social
The president may have liked what Enten had to say when it painted him in a good light — especially given his record-low approval ratings — but he will probably not enjoy the data guru’s latest prediction. uncertain
he → like → prediction
“What I should note is these House races, historically, they’ve actually been rather conservative. asserted
they → note → What
There are still 17 or there in about [sic] races that are toss-ups,” Enten said Wednesday. asserted
Enten → be → races
A recent poll showed Democrats had an 11-point lead over Republicans in House races nationally. asserted
Democrats → show → races
More likely voters would pick the Democratic candidate, 52 percent, than the Republican candidate, 41 percent, in their district, according to a new New York Times/Siena University poll. uncertain
voters → pick → poll
Several House Republicans have even admitted behind closed doors that they will lose the majority in the midterms, according to a Politico report published earlier this month. uncertain
they → admit → report
“President Trump has made this election all about himself,” one GOP lawmaker said. asserted
lawmaker → make → himself
“Now we have to survive that political storm.” asserted
we → have → storm
White House Assistant Press Secretary Liz Huston told The Independent at the time, “President Trump is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in both the House and Senate.” asserted
Trump → tell → House
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