Photo via The Bulwark

Three Days Until the Midterms. How Bad Could It Get for Republicans? (w/ Sarah Longwell) | Bulwark on Sunday

Read the original at The Bulwark ↗
Cite

Kristol, W. (2026, November 1). Three Days Until the Midterms. How Bad Could It Get for Republicans? (w/ Sarah Longwell) | Bulwark on Sunday. The Bulwark. https://www.thebulwark.com/p/three-days-until-the-midterms-how

Dated from the outlet's own feed. Check the original for its byline.

The Bulwark · collected 2026-11-01 · by William Kristol commentary

Quick Summary

On Bulwark's live video, Sarah Longwell and Bill Kristol discuss the upcoming midterm elections, arguing that Republicans face the possibility of significant losses due to disillusionment among Trump voters. Longwell details her focus group findings, highlighting surprising chances for Democrats in traditionally red states, while also addressing recent political shifts like Haley Stevens' endorsement of Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan.
Written by AI on 2026-11-01, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

With Election Day just three days away on November 4, 2026, political analysts William Kristol and Sarah Longwell discuss the potential for a historic defeat for Republicans. Longwell shares insights from her focus groups indicating disillusionment among Trump voters. The pair also note unexpected opportunities for Democrats in traditionally Republican states. Notably, they react to the surprising endorsement by Haley Stevens, a Democrat, of Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan's midterm election.

Written for “Midterm Elections Countdown” on 2026-11-02, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Reading Leans left (beta estimate) Confidence medium
Leaning: leans left for article 121667 (medium confidence, 2 verified quotes) · logged 2026-11-01

Story

📰 Midterm Elections Countdown
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 67% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
New poll reveals the troubling numbers behind Democrats' commanding midterm lead... and why Republicans still have hope Different event
Daily Mail
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 2 of 25 claims Outlet record 68/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of the upcoming midterm elections, with Article A focusing on poll results and potential voter concerns, while Article B is an interview discussing the possibility of a historic defeat for Republicans.”
Election Nostradamus Nate Silver predicts midterms could be 'end of the Trump era' if Republicans lose big Different event
Daily Mail
Hedges 9 of 40 claims Outlet record 68/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of upcoming midterms and do not describe the same specific incident.”
US midterms: Five days to go – What the polls say as Trump, Harris campaign Different event
Al Jazeera
Hedges 6 of 52 claims Outlet record 60/100
“The articles discuss different timeframes and focus on varying aspects of the midterm election campaign, not a single specific incident.”
No signs of red-state firewall around GOP majorities days before midterm elections Different event
Washington Examiner
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 0 of 3 claims Outlet record 70/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of pre-election polling and analysis for the midterm elections, but do not describe the same specific incident.”
Republican, Democratic strategists weigh in on midterm expectations Different event
CBS News
Hedges 0 of 2 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of midterm election expectations and do not describe the same specific incident.”
US midterms: 3 days to go – What latest polls say as early voting surges Different event
Al Jazeera
Hedges 9 of 54 claims Outlet record 60/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of the approaching midterm elections: Article A covers overall national polls and early voting trends, while Article B focuses on a detailed analysis and interview about potential Republican losses.”
Amy Walter Sees the Makings of a Historic Electoral Earthquake Different event
The Bulwark
Hedges 1 of 7 claims
“The articles describe different podcast episodes with distinct guests and discussions.”
Are the US midterms going to see a blue wave of Democrats winning seats – or a blue flood? Different event
The Guardian
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 9 of 113 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of the midterm elections without focusing on the same specific incident.”
Michigan could save the Senate for Republicans Different event
Washington Examiner
⚖️ Leans right further right than this Hedges 2 of 6 claims Outlet record 70/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of the upcoming midterm elections without focusing on the exact same specific incident or time.”
Final countdown to the make-or-break midterms – podcast Different event
The Guardian
Hedges 0 of 1 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles describe different podcasts discussing midterms but occur on distinct dates and feature different guests.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
3
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
67%
2 of 3 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans left
expected in commentary, which argues a position · beta estimate
Publisher signals
not measured
these signals count newsroom corrections; Commentary has none to count
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-11-01 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

The Bulwark · 568 article(s) · 0 correction(s) detected
No corrections detected for this publisher. That may mean careful reporting, or simply that nothing has been checked.

Who wrote this

William Kristol
26 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 How Bad Could It Get for Republicans? (w/ Sarah Longwell) | Bulwark on Sunday A recording from The Bulwark’s live video
2026-11-01 · speculative framing · Three Days Until the Midterms. How Bad Could It Get for Republicans? (w/ Sarah Longwell) | Bulwark on Sunday
🔮 One might even call what happened this year a Brew Wave.
2026-10-29 · assertive framing · Is This Heaven? No, It’s the Midterms.
🔮 Most billionaire political donors would be content to throw their lucre into a PAC to buy up a bunch of ad time and call it a day.
2026-10-28 · assertive framing · How Do You Solve a Problem Like Elon Musk?
🔮 The 2006 precedent could serve as something of a warning.
2026-10-27 · assertive framing · Wave Goodbye to a Republican Congress
🔮 A recording from The Bulwark’s live video With one week until Election Day, Bill Kristol and Andrew Egger break down the Senate races that could deliver Democrats a historic midterm wave.
2026-10-27 · mixed framing · Morning Shots: James Talarico Takes Direct Aim at Elon Musk
🔮 They discuss Trump’s disastrous polling, the GOP’s crumbling coalition, the possibility of election interference, and what a crushing Republican defeat could mean for Trump’s billionaire allies and the future of American politics.
2026-10-18 · mixed framing · James Carville’s Midterm Predictions | Bulwark on Sunday
🔮 We don’t know: Homeland Security hasn’t claimed he was resisting arrest, attacking an officer, or anything else that might have provoked such a response.
2026-10-09 · assertive framing · Hegseth Wants You to Watch a Snuff Film
🔮 About an hour and a half later, Trump had a further thought to share, this time in ALL CAPS: MY RALLIES ARE SAVING THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, AGAIN!!! Lots of Republicans would beg to differ with the leader of their party.
2026-10-07 · assertive framing · Reasons for Hope. Reasons for Alarm.
🔮 Darline is a High Quality person, maybe the Highest, and Annie Trannie is not, in particular, as it pertains to representing the Values of the Great People of South Carolina
2026-10-06 · assertive framing · Grandpa Trump Is Getting Desperate
🔮 A 10-point swing would be a wave that puts lots of districts and states in play.
2026-10-01 · assertive framing · Trump + AI = Blue Tsunami
Also by William Kristol
Is This Heaven? No, It’s the Midterms.
2026-10-29 · The Bulwark
How Do You Solve a Problem Like Elon Musk?
2026-10-28 · The Bulwark
Morning Shots: James Talarico Takes Direct Aim at Elon Musk
2026-10-27 · The Bulwark
Wave Goodbye to a Republican Congress
2026-10-27 · The Bulwark
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 26 articles by William Kristol →

Topics

Bulwark Democrats Michigan Republican Republicans

Subjects

Bulwark PERSON · 2× Republicans NORP · 2× Sarah Longwell PERSON · 2× Bill Kristol PERSON · 1× Democrats NORP · 1× Mike Rogers PERSON · 1× Republican NORP · 1× Sarah PERSON · 1× Trump PERSON · 1× a Haley Stevens PERSON · 1×

Narrative

Sarah shares what she’s hearing from disillusioned Trump voters in her focus groups, the two examine surprising opportunities for Democrats in deep-red states, and they react to the stunning news that a Haley Stevens has endorsed Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan.
framing: speculative · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-11-01
🔮 How Bad Could It Get for Republicans? (w/ Sarah Longwell) | Bulwark on Sunday A recording from The Bulwark’s live video
2026-11-01 · The Bulwark
Three Days Until the Midterms. How Bad Could It Get for Republicans? (w/ Sarah Longwell) | Bulwark on Sunday · speculative framing

Claims (3 extracted, 2 hedged)

How Bad Could It Get for Republicans? (w/ Sarah Longwell) | Bulwark on Sunday A recording from The Bulwark’s live video uncertain
It → get → video
With Election Day just days away, Sarah Longwell and Bill Kristol explain why they believe Republicans could be headed for a historic defeat. uncertain
Republicans → explain → defeat
Sarah shares what she’s hearing from disillusioned Trump voters in her focus groups, the two examine surprising opportunities for Democrats in deep-red states, and they react to the stunning news that a Haley Stevens has endorsed Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan. asserted
Stevens → share → Michigan
💬Give feedback
🕘History 🎫Support
Terms · Privacy · beta v2.0.0
Articles to 2 Nov 2026