The "Ruthless Podcast" Fellas have some of the best political insights in the game, and we asked them what they'll be looking at ahead of Tuesday's critical midterms.
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they → have → midterms
Control of the House and U.S. Senate are at stake as Democrats try to take back Congress after Republicans swept the White House and both chambers in 2024.
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Republicans → try → 2024
From what polls are or aren't reliable, to the races sparking the most interest, to what the media continues to get wrong in political coverage, the Fellas have your answers.
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Fellas → spark → answers
Comfortably Smug
If you could only watch one race on election night, which is it, and what’s the first thing you check when the polls close?
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polls → watch → night
Susan Collins has an incredible ability to lose every poll and win every election, thus far.
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Collins → have → election
Will she be able to overcome the atmosphere of this election is a huge question.
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be → overcome → election
The first thing I check when polls close is early exits, which I find to be the most reliable and illuminating data on election night.
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I → check → night
What’s the one number you trust more than the polls (early vote, turnout, special election overperformance, fundraising, something else), and what threshold would make you feel good or bad about your side?
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you → ’ → side
Dems always talk about a red mirage followed by a blue wave on election nights.
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Dems → talk → nights
If early exits don't go Republicans' way, it will be a bad night.
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it → go → way
What is the media overhyping going into the midterms, and what is it ignoring?
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it → overhype → what
The media is overhyping Barack Obama as a candidate surrogate.
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media → overhype → surrogate
He stumped for Hillary [Clinton], he stumped for Kamala [Harris], and they both lost.
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they → stump → Kamala
Obama has no coattails.
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Obama → have → coattails
Which poll, pundit, or conventional wisdom do you not believe, and why?
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you → believe → poll
I do not trust any polls.
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I → trust → polls
If you could only watch one race on election night, which is it, and what’s the first thing you check when the polls close?
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polls → watch → night
Watch returns in the 50 counties where President Trump outperformed Mitt Romney by 10 or more points.
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Trump → watch → points
What’s the one number you trust more than the polls (early vote, turnout, special election overperformance, fundraising, something else), and what threshold would make you feel good or bad about your side?
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you → trust → side
[Mike] Rogers' performance in Oakland County is a number to watch.
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performance → watch → County
He could come out on top if he outperforms his 2024 vote totals in those areas.
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he → come → areas
What is the media overhyping going into the midterms, and what is it ignoring?
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it → overhype → what
The media always overhypes late-breaking vibes and underreports multi-year, local level grassroots operations.
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media → overhype → operations
Good candidates can overperform the environment with competent campaigns.
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candidates → overperform → campaigns
Which poll, pundit, or conventional wisdom do you not believe, and why?
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you → believe → poll
Public polling is often less reliable than professional private surveys based on years of state and local level expertise.
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polling → base → expertise
So I’m always skeptical of public polling.
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I → ’m → polling
But the one thing they’ve captured accurately is the difficult environment Republican candidates are currently navigating.
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candidates → capture → ?
If you could only watch one race on election night, which is it, and what’s the first thing you check when the polls close?
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polls → watch → night
First thing we're checking is Abdul El-Sayed's support with Black voters in Wayne County.
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we → check → County
What’s the one number you trust more than the polls (early vote, turnout, special election overperformance, fundraising, something else), and what threshold would make you feel good or bad about your side?
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you → ’ → side
makes you sweat election night less, and it lets you know where you're getting enthusiasm.
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you → make → enthusiasm
What is the media overhyping going into the midterms, and what is it ignoring?
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it → overhype → what
Angie Nixon is a DSA loon and every interview she gives is a disaster.
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she → give → ?
The media hasn't really covered the ranked choice process in Maine and Alaska.
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media → cover → Maine
It's possible it could take weeks for us to know who has the Senate Majority.
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who → take → Majority
Which poll, pundit, or conventional wisdom do you not believe, and why?
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you → believe → poll
The pollsters who were off by 10+ points in the Dem primaries in Wisconsin and Michigan and are now publishing general election polls.
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who → publish → polls
The Aporia
