Germany's hard-Right AfD party is set for a 'historic' victory in regional election, exit polls show

News | Mail Online · collected 2026-09-06 · by Tom Midlane, Freya Barnes
Read the original at News | Mail Online ↗

Summary

Germany's hard-Right AfD party is on track to win at least 44% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt's regional election, according to exit polls. If this holds, it would be a historic victory for the anti-immigration and Moscow-friendly party, making them the first hard-Right party to run a state government in Germany since World War II. The AfD's lead candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, has already declared "We have made history today". The election is also seen as a rebuke for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, whose CDU finished far behind with 18% of the vote.
Written by the local model on 2026-09-07, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
58
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
12%
7 of 58 hedged
Leaning
Leans right
of the writing, not the subject
Publisher trust
57.6
red-flag proxy, not a credibility rating
Outlets on this story
42
Politics
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-09-07 · how these are computed

AI analysis (generated at analysis time, not now)

Story summary

In a closely watched regional election, Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is poised to gain power in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt. The AfD is expected to secure at least 44% of the vote, more than double its showing five years ago, according to exit polls. This would give the party a significant majority and potentially mark the first time a far-right party has held state-level power in Germany since World War II.

The AfD's rise to prominence is seen as a threat to mainstream parties, including Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which is currently leading the state. The party's success is attributed to its promise to restrict immigration and restore ties with Russia, as well as its charismatic leader, Ulrich Siegmund.

A victory for the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt would be a significant milestone for the party, which has been gaining momentum in recent years. It could also have broader implications for German politics, potentially leading to a shift towards a harder line on immigration and European integration.

Experts warn that an AfD government could lead to significant changes in areas such as education and foreign policy, including creating separate classrooms for refugees and promoting a patriotism agenda that focuses less on the country's Nazi past. The party has also been accused of adopting tactics inspired by President Trump, including casting doubt on the integrity of absentee voting.

The outcome of the election is still uncertain, but it is clear that the AfD's rise to power would be a historic event with significant implications for Germany and Europe.

Written for “Far-Right Party's Rise in Germany” on 2026-09-07, grounded in this article and the 41 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Score +0.35 Confidence medium 1 quote(s) discarded as not found in the article
Leaning score +0.35 for article 6304 (medium confidence, 1 verified quote) · logged 2026-09-07

Story

📰 Far-Right Party's Rise in Germany
Politics · 42 article(s) covering the same event.

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans right and hedges 12% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
News - South China Morning Post · 0.92 cosine similarity
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 50% hedged 3 of 6 📰 publisher trust 94
“Both articles report on the same regional election in Saxony-Anhalt with AfD as the landslide winner, citing similar exit poll results and quotes from Ulrich Siegmund”
Dawn - Home · 0.92 cosine similarity
⚖️ Leans strongly left further left than this 🔴 14% hedged 3 of 22 📰 publisher trust 95
“Both articles report on the same regional election in Saxony-Anhalt state, with identical exit poll results and quotes from Ulrich Siegmund.”
The Straits Times World News · 0.90 cosine similarity
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 30% hedged 3 of 10 📰 publisher trust 94
“Both articles report on the same state election in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6, 2026, with similar exit poll results showing the AfD winning at least 44% of the vote.”
World News, Today World News, Latest International News, World Breaking News, Trending News of World - Times of India · 0.89 cosine similarity
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 35% hedged 9 of 26 📰 publisher trust 94
“Both articles describe the same state election in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6, 2026, where the AfD party is expected to make history by becoming the first far-right party to take power at state level since World War Two.”
The Straits Times World News · 0.89 cosine similarity
⚖️ Leans left further left than this 🔴 16% hedged 4 of 25 📰 publisher trust 94
“Both articles report on the same regional election in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6, with exit polls showing the AfD winning at least 44% of the vote and Ulrich Siegmund making a statement about 'making history'.”
BBC News · 0.89 cosine similarity
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 4% hedged 2 of 47 📰 publisher trust 96
“Both articles report on the same regional election in Saxony-Anhalt, with identical results (44% for AfD) and quotes from Ulrich Siegmund.”
NPR Topics: News · 0.89 cosine similarity
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 8% hedged 3 of 37 📰 publisher trust 58
“Both articles report on the outcome of the Saxony-Anhalt state election, where AfD candidate Ulrich Siegmund's party is poised for power.”
Sydney Morning Herald - Latest News · 0.88 cosine similarity
⚖️ Leans left further left than this 🔴 12% hedged 4 of 34 📰 publisher trust 97
“Both articles report on the same regional election in Saxony-Anhalt, Germany, where Alternative for Germany (AfD) gained at least 44.5% of the vote according to exit polls.”
CBC | World News · 0.88 cosine similarity
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 7% hedged 2 of 30 📰 publisher trust 95
“Both articles report on the same regional German election in Saxony-Anhalt, with the AfD party projected to win and potentially form a far-right state government for the first time since WWII.”
Latest & Breaking News on Fox News · 0.88 cosine similarity
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 11% hedged 3 of 28 📰 publisher trust 95
“Both articles report on the same regional election in Saxony-Anhalt where the AfD party won a significant victory, with exit polls showing they took at least 44% of the vote.”

Publisher

News | Mail Online · 186 article(s) · 2 correction(s) detected
SignalValueWeight
Correction rate 0.011 0.4
Uncertainty density 0.090 0.25
Assertive mismatch rate 1.000 0.35
Running correction rate · 2 correction(s)
2026-09-07
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2026-09-06
Clarifications and corrections

Who wrote this

Tom Midlane
3 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 'That way, passengers wouldn't have needed to come here so early and could have looked for alternatives instead.' French national Eloan Tasset, 21, got a text from Batik Air that his flight to his holiday destination of Manado in North Sulawesi had been delayed, but he said it was unclear how long the delay would be.
🔮 However, it remains far from clear who will eventually rule in the small state of 2.1 million people.
🔮 ' Crown Prince Haakon will now ascend the throne and is expected to take the name King Haakon VIII.
Also by Tom Midlane
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
Freya Barnes
1 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 However, it remains far from clear who will eventually rule in the small state of 2.1 million people.
The only article under this byline in the corpus.

Topics

AfD Alternative for Germany German Germany Saxony-Anhalt

Subjects

AfD ORG · 12× Germany GPE · 5× Saxony-Anhalt GPE · 5× Alternative for Germany ORG · 3× German NORP · 3× Siegmund PERSON · 3× Ulrich Siegmund PERSON · 3× ARD ORG · 2× Alice Weidel PERSON · 2× Ossie NORP · 2×

Narrative

'If the AfD wins in Saxony-Anhalt, Merz's critics will become even more vocal, and calls for better leadership will become impossible to ignore,' political scientist Wolfgang Schroeder of Kassel University had previously warned. However, Mr Schroeder also said he does not expect Mr Merz to be ousted, given the current absence of a strong rival candidate: 'As far as I can see, there is no alternative chancellor.'
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-07
🔮 However, it remains far from clear who will eventually rule in the small state of 2.1 million people.

Claims (58 extracted, 7 hedged)

- See more Daily Mail on Google - save us as a Preferred Source Germany's biggest hard-Right party is set for a 'historic' victory in a key regional election, exit polls show. asserted
polls → see → election
Alternative for Germany (AfD) took at least 44 per cent of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt in the ex-communist east, according to exit polls published by broadcasters ARD and ZDF. uncertain
Alternative → take → ARD
The anti-immigration and Moscow-friendly party is now on the brink of becoming the first hard-Right party to run a state government in Germany since the Second World War. asserted
party → become → War
'We have made history today,' said a jubilant Ulrich Siegmund, the 35-year-old lead candidate for AfD in Saxony-Anhalt. asserted
Siegmund → make → Anhalt
The result was seen as a stinging rebuke for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, whose centre-Right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) finished far behind AfD on 18 per cent. asserted
Union → see → cent
The centre-Left Social Democrats and environmental Greens both cleared the minimum threshold to enter state parliament with around 8 to 9 per cent each. asserted
Democrats → clear → cent
However, it remains far from clear who will eventually rule in the small state of 2.1 million people. asserted
who → remain → people
The AfD had hoped to garner enough votes for the absolute majority which would allow it to govern a state alone for the first time, but is instead on course to take just less than half of parliamentary seats available. asserted
it → hop → seats
Top candidate of the hard-Right Alternative for Germany (AfD), Ulrich Siegmund, and his wife Julia Siegmund, cast their votes in the Saxony-Anhalt state election at a polling station in Tangermuende, Germany, September 6, 2026 Ulrich Siegmund (right), AfD's main candidate in the Saxony-Anhalt state election, celebrates with the party's national co-leader Alice Weidel (left) after exit polls showed the party set for victory Members and supporters of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party react after the first exit poll results were announced on public television at the AfD's election party following Saxony-Anhalt's state elections in Magdeburg, eastern Germany on September 6, 2026 The AfD meanwhile may hope to win the support of the small pro-Russian BSW party - a leftist group that is tough on immigration, and which was expected to just scrape into parliament with five percent. uncertain
which → celebrate → percent
Alice Weidel, the AfD's national co-leader, praised the party's result as 'sensational' and said the party had 'received a very clear mandate to govern here'. asserted
party → praise → mandate
But until now the AfD has faced a policy of Brandmauer – which translates as 'firewall' – meaning other mainstream German parties have refused to negotiate with or go into coalition with them. But the results of Sunday's election show that mainstream parties' longstanding policy of refusing co-operation with the AfD has been rejected by voters, the party's other national co-leader Tino Chrupalla claimed. asserted
leader → face → voters
Those parties 'were voted out - or rather, the voters delivered a clear verdict - and I can only encourage them to recognise that the "firewall" has been definitively rejected by the voters today,' Chrupalla, referring to the policy, told broadcaster ARD. asserted
Chrupalla → vote → ARD
'It was the others who erected the firewalls,' Mr Siegmund told German newspaper Bild before the results began to funnel through. asserted
results → erect → Bild
'If no one wants to work with us, then we'll just have to do it alone.' asserted
we → want → it
Mr Siegmund has ambitions to become state premier and lead a political revolution from Saxony-Anhalt that would propel the party to national victory in 2029. asserted
that → have → 2029
Dubbed 'Germany's most dangerous man' by a news magazine Der Spiegel, Mr Siegmund mocked the publication by handing out signed copies to his fans. asserted
Siegmund → dub → fans
In recent months, the hard-Right leader – a former entrepreneur – has been mobbed by adoring supporters at 'family picnics' and campaign events across the small state. asserted
leader → mob → state
The party has tapped into a sense of nostalgia for communist East Germany as well as lingering resentment about an enduring wealth gap with the west decades after the 1989 fall of the Berlin Wall. asserted
party → tap → Wall
Tapping in to the defiant sense of local 'Ossie pride' – Ossie being a colloquial term for people from the former East Germany – Mr Siegmund has been frequently pictured riding a vintage Simson scooter, including to the polling booth Sunday in his hometown of Tangermuende. But his vow to deport irregular migrants 'from minute one' has terrified many foreign-born residents. asserted
vow → tap → residents
Germany's domestic intelligence agency considers the AfD chapter he represents as 'Right-wing extremist' with links to ethno-nationalist groups and think-tanks. asserted
he → consider → groups
Ulrich Siegmund and his wife arrive at the polling station in Tangermuende on Sunday on an iconic Simson scooter, which he has regularly ridden on the campaign trail asserted
he → arrive → trail
Mr Siegmund was present at a 2023 secret meeting near Berlin where extreme Right-wing activists discussed a radical 'remigration' plan to expel millions of people with a migration background. asserted
activists → discuss → background
At the time, the revelation cost Mr Siegmund a committee chairmanship in the state parliament – but he has since dismissed the meeting as a 'Kaffee Klatsch' or casual social gathering. asserted
he → cost → Klatsch
Letting out cries of joy and jumping into the air, AfD supporters celebrated as they realised the scale of their election triumph in the ex-communist eastern state. asserted
they → let → state
As exit polls put the party's vote share at a thumping 44 percent, jubilant scenes erupted at a post-election party in Magdeburg, capital of the state of Saxony-Anhalt. asserted
scenes → put → Anhalt
AfD state lawmaker Daniel Wald, 44, compared the unbridled happiness to the collective joy he remembers witnessing as a child on the day the Berlin Wall fell. asserted
Wall → compare → day
'That very feeling - that emotion I experienced back in 1989, with tears in my eyes and all the people around me, my family, cheering - that exact feeling welled up again when we stood up there and saw the result,' he said. asserted
he → experience → result
'And that is precisely what the people are feeling right now ... that this is a new beginning. asserted
this → feel → what
And, of course, that spirit is meant to spread across the entire country.' asserted
spirit → mean → country
Angela Maike, 65, a retiree from the city, told AFP: 'I thought the result would be around 41 percent, but it's higher. asserted
it → tell → AFP
AfD national co-leaders Alice Weidel (left) and Tino Chrupalla (right) congratulate local candidate Ulrich Siegmund (centre) asserted
leaders → congratulate → Siegmund
The AfD result was seen as a stinging rebuke to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz (pictured) 'I always prefer to be a bit pessimistic beforehand so I can be pleasantly surprised afterwards. asserted
I → see → Merz
And that's what happened today,' she added. asserted
she → happen → ?
Julian Schneider, a 29-year-old member of the AfD's youth organisation, said he was not surprised at the result. asserted
he → say → result
'I'm naturally optimistic, but I think it was predictable,' he said. asserted
he → think → ?
Pointing to the high turnout - 78 per cent, according to public broadcaster ZDF - he welcomed the fact that 'people who might not have gone to vote in the end mobilised to vote for the AfD' in the small state of 2.1 million. uncertain
who → point → million
German voters headed to the polls today for a crucial regional election with voting booths closing at 6pm local time. asserted
booths → head → pm
The small state of Saxony-Anhalt was ruled by the centre-Right CDU of Chancellor Friedrich Merz in coalition with two smaller parties, run by state premier Sven Schulze. asserted
state → rule → Schulze
Mr Schulze called the outcome 'a severe blow' but – depending on the final count and the fate of smaller parties – may still try to cobble together a multi-party coalition to cling to power. uncertain
Schulze → call → power
The German Economic Institute (IW) has warned the AfD's immigration policy would be 'ruinous' for Saxony-Anhalt, which is highly reliant on foreign-born workers, especially in the health sector. asserted
which → warn → sector
…and 18 more, not listed.
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