Winning a minority government with just 28 per cent of the vote puts the Parti Québécois in uncharted territory.
asserted
Winning → win → territory
“It’s exceptional; we’ve never seen that in Quebec, certainly, that a party can win enough seats to form government with such low numbers,” said Daniel Béland, a professor of political science at McGill University.
asserted
Béland → ’ → University
“It’s a relatively strong minority government, in a sense.
asserted
It → ’ → sense
But we know that minority governments have a lower life expectancy.”
Monday’s outcome means the separatist PQ likely won’t be pushing for a referendum on leaving Canada any time soon, say political watchers.
asserted
watchers → know → Canada
The party won 59 of the National Assembly’s 127 seats and will need support from some members of the three opposition parties to reach 64 votes and get legislation passed.
asserted
legislation → win → votes
The PQ held just seven seats when the writ dropped.
asserted
writ → hold → seats
Premier-designate Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, or PSPP as he is known, has said he will wait to hold a referendum on Quebec independence until after U.S. President Donald Trump leaves the White House in January 2029.
asserted
Trump → know → January
“Considering the average life expectancy of a minority government in Quebec, or even in Canada in general, it’s not sure (the PQ will still be in office when Trump makes his exit),” Béland said.
asserted
Béland → consider → exit
“And that’s an issue that will be front of mind” for the governing party.
asserted
that → ’ → party
“The minority government renders a referendum on independence much less likely,” said André Lecours, a political scientist at the University of Ottawa.
asserted
Lecours → render → Ottawa
Sébastien Dallaire, chief insights officer with Leger Marketing, agreed that we’re unlikely to “see a push for a referendum, especially not in the near future.”
Would it be possible “to create the winning conditions in the current context?” Dallaire said.
asserted
Dallaire → agree → context
“Right now, it looks unlikely.”
asserted
it → look → ?
It wouldn’t be “impossible,” for the PQ to “pull the trigger on a referendum with the support of the Québec Solidaire,” Béland said.
asserted
Béland → pull → Solidaire
“But Québec Solidaire and the PQ, although they both support the independence of Quebec, they don’t see the process leading to independence in the same way.”
asserted
process → support → way
Dallaire pointed out that about half of those who voted for Québec Solidaire “are not in favour of sovereignty.”
asserted
who → point → sovereignty
It would “likely be very hard for Québec Solidaire to convince their voters and their base that now is the time to go into a referendum period,” Dallaire said.
asserted
Dallaire → convince → period
“It would be very tricky for Québec Solidaire to form a formal alliance with the PQ to push for a referendum.”
asserted
Solidaire → form → referendum
Québec Solidaire won nine seats Monday, compared to 11 in the last election.
asserted
Solidaire → win → election
“Québec Solidaire is a left-wing party, they’re pro-immigration, they are critical” of Quebec’s Bill 21, Béland said, while the PQ wants to “double down” on the provincial law enforcing state secularism that prohibits some public-sector workers from wearing religious symbols at work.
asserted
that → ’re → work
“These are very different political animals, these two parties, so in some areas they could collaborate.
uncertain
they → collaborate → areas
Conservatives jumped from zero seats in 2022 to 19 on Monday.
asserted
Conservatives → jump → Monday
“Conservatives could push the PQ even further to the right in terms of tax cuts and spending cuts,” Béland said.
uncertain
Béland → push → cuts
“Because it’s a minority government Paul St-Pierre Plamondon will have to, as we say in French, put some water in his wine to compromise in order to get things done, in order to pass a budget.”
asserted
things → ’ → budget
The Conservatives could prove “quite influential,” Béland said. “Because it’s unlikely that the official opposition, the Liberals, will collaborate that much with the PQ.”
uncertain
opposition → prove → PQ
The Liberals jumped from 19 seats to 40 in Monday’s election.
asserted
Liberals → jump → election
“They were able to regain a lot of their old strongholds” in the Outaouais, Montreal’s South Shore and Lavalle, said Lecours, pointing out they also took a Quebec City riding.
asserted
they → regain → riding
“They’re starting to make some headway in Francophone Quebec,” he said.
asserted
he → start → Quebec
Under the leadership of Christine Fréchette, the Coalition Avenir Québec — which formed a majority government in 2022 with 90 seats under former Premier François Legault — was reduced to zero seats.
asserted
which → form → seats
The CAQ had “a horrible night” on Monday, Dallaire said.
asserted
Dallaire → have → Monday
The “complete wipeout” is unheard of “for a party that had a super majority,” he said.
asserted
he → have → majority
That’s a question that a lot of people are asking today.”
asserted
lot → ’ → people
Conservatives may well replace the CAQ as an alternative to the Liberals and the PQ, who have dominated since the 1970s, Dallaire said.
uncertain
Dallaire → replace → 1970s
“Could the Conservatives now really establish themselves as the third option?
uncertain
Conservatives → establish → option
That’s the hope after the win (Monday) night.
asserted
That → ’ → win
We’ll see how things evolve in coming months.”
asserted
things → see → months
He expects a “rocky political environment” as the National Assembly is flooded with “rookies.”
asserted
Assembly → expect → rookies
“Close to 80 per cent of MNAs are new in this assembly,” Dallaire said.
asserted
Dallaire → say → assembly
“So, it’s going to be a lot of learning and it’s going to be learning on the fly in a minority government situation where you need to collaborate and you need to compromise.”
asserted
you → go → situation
The Aporia
