National Post
· collected 2026-10-05 · by Special to National Post
analysis
Today, Quebecers will be called to the polls to elect their next government.
asserted
Quebecers → call → government
If trends hold, the Parti Québécois should, by all indications, win this election, with some recent polls even placing it within reach of a majority.
asserted
polls → hold → majority
The Parti Québécois, which has been leading in the polls for nearly three years, has not faced the barrage of attacks one might have expected.
uncertain
one → lead → attacks
Its proposal to hold a referendum on Quebec independence during a first term has failed to stir much passion, and the issue does not seem to have mobilized federalist voters as much as many observers might have expected.
uncertain
observers → hold → voters
Tired of the Coalition Avenir Québec’s broken promises, Quebecers were desperately looking for a credible alternative to Premier Christine Fréchette’s party.
asserted
Quebecers → look → party
It’s a distinction political observers need to understand.
asserted
observers → ’ → ?
A victory on Monday, even a majority, should not be confused with strong support for the referendum process.
asserted
victory → confuse → process
Quebecers may be preparing to give PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon a mandate to govern, but that does not mean they are giving him a mandate for independence.
uncertain
they → prepare → independence
The modern Quebec voter is extremely cynical about politicians and about the government’s ability to deliver on what it promises.
asserted
it → deliver → what
Before being convinced that Quebec is ready to take its destiny into its own hands, voters will want their government to prove that it can first get itself back in order.
asserted
it → convince → order
There is nothing particularly encouraging about Quebec’s ability to govern itself when we look at the state of public services and the province’s chronic inability to deliver major projects, whether in infrastructure, technology or elsewhere.
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we → be → infrastructure
For all the talk about Quebec’s political future, the most immediate problem for most voters is that they have lost confidence in the government they already have.
asserted
they → lose → government
The mandate given to the Parti Québécois on Monday will first and foremost be one to clean things up and restore confidence in Quebec’s ability to provide quality public services.
asserted
mandate → give → services
It means that, before asking Quebecers to believe that their government can take on the responsibilities of an independent country, the PQ will have to show that it can properly handle the responsibilities Quebec already has.
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Quebec → mean → responsibilities
That is the main priority the PQ will have to tackle if it wins government.
asserted
it → have → government
And that is ultimately what voters will judge it on.
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voters → judge → it
We have to remember that when he took over the PQ leadership in 2020, people were already writing his party’s obituary, expecting it to be nearly wiped off the electoral map in 2022.
asserted
it → have → 2022
But against all odds, PSPP held the fort.
asserted
PSPP → hold → fort
He stood his ground and owned his ideas, even the most unpopular ones, such as holding a referendum during a first term.
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He → stand → term
That is a large part of what appealed to many voters disappointed with the CAQ.
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what → appeal → CAQ
These are voters who had been promised the world and who felt the government never kept its commitments.
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government → promise → commitments
In that context, PSPP gives the impression of being guided by a real compass and of not being the type to govern by polls.
asserted
PSPP → give → polls
That image has served him really well in opposition.
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image → serve → opposition
But governing will test him.
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governing → govern → him
We will see whether the same political courage applies when the difficult choices involve spending, bureaucracy, public-sector unions and the very Quebec model that needs to be changed.
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that → see → spending
It’s clear that, for the PQ, the hardest part is still ahead.
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part → ’ → PQ
St-Pierre Plamondon will have to turn the desire for change into real results.
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Plamondon → have → results
And he’ll need to respond concretely to the frustration of taxpayers, who feel they are not getting enough for their money.
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they → need → money
All of this will happen in an extremely complicated context for the PQ leader.
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All → happen → leader
Public finances need to be restored.
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finances → need → ?
Spending cuts will be necessary to return to a balanced budget, especially if the PQ wants to present independence as an economically credible project.
asserted
PQ → return → project
The trade war with the United States will also add another layer of difficulty.
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war → add → difficulty
Quebecers have been strong supporters of Ottawa’s response to Donald Trump’s tariffs, and they remain deeply hostile toward the U.S. president.
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they → remain → president
That puts PSPP in an awkward position.
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That → put → position
Any Quebec premier has an interest in building relationships with international partners, which will be truer with a sovereigntist leader preparing for a referendum.
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which → have → referendum
But in the current climate, even the appearance of getting closer to the Trump administration can come at a political cost.
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appearance → get → cost
We saw how sensitive that can become this weekend when Martin Patriquin reported in the Montreal Gazette on leaked text messages indicating that a meeting involving St-Pierre Plamondon at the U.S. State Department had been scheduled before being cancelled.
asserted
meeting → see → Department
The PQ has disputed the interpretation surrounding that meeting but the reaction to the story showed how hard it will be for PSPP to keep a working relationship with Quebec’s largest trading partner while dealing with an electorate that wants its government to stand up to Trump.
asserted
government → dispute → Trump
He will also find himself, in 2028, at the bargaining table with Quebec public-sector unions, one year before the target year of 2029 for holding the referendum, when Donald Trump leaves the U.S. presidency.
asserted
Trump → find → presidency
Unions have generally been natural allies of the PQ and an important mobilizing force in the YES camp.
asserted
Unions → mobilize → camp
…and 9 more, not listed.
The Aporia
