Early this morning — or late last night, depending on your definition — we ran our final FLIPR update of the 2026 election cycle.
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we → depend → cycle
Nate also published an in-depth Model Talk on the state of the race.
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Nate → publish → race
I’d encourage you to read the piece in full, but here’s the topline takeaway from FLIPR:
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takeaway → encourage → FLIPR
Our forecasts show good numbers for Democrats — the last round of polling resolved any doubt about that.
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round → show → that
They are reasonably clear favorites to flip the Senate, and very likely to flip the House.
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They → flip → House
The Senate is by no means certain, but at the same time, the bottom could fall out for Republicans if Democrats meet or exceed their forecasts on a race-by-race basis.
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Democrats → fall → basis
Now that the forecast is frozen and FLIPR 🐬 has returned to the depths of the East River, Election Day itself can feel low-key at Silver Bulletin HQ.
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Day → freeze → HQ
This will be the first day in many months where we don’t have to think about updating the model.
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we → have → model
But our reprieve is a brief one, because tonight starting at 6:00 PM Eastern, we’ll have actual election results to obsess over carefully analyze.
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we → start → results
So beforehand, we’re bringing you a quick guide on what to watch as the polls close, hour-by-hour, according to FLIPR.
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polls → bring → FLIPR
We know there are plenty of other election guides out there, but this is the only one with special FLIPR content.
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this → know → content
For races for Congress, we’ll show you our hour-by-hour projections in every race that FLIPR rates as between “Lean D” and “Lean R” or that has at least a 1 percent chance of being the tipping-point race for chamber control.
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that → show → control
For gubernatorial races, we don’t calculate a tipping-point percentage, so we’ll also show you “Likely R” and “Likely D” races.
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we → calculate → races
Note that these are based entirely on our pre-election forecasts of this morning.
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these → note → morning
We’re not trying to run an Election Night model, but we hope this will be useful for helping to detect which candidates are over- or underperforming.
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candidates → try → model
No poll closings here, but our Election Night livestream will begin!
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livestream → begin → ?
We’ll be breaking down the results in real time with The Argument, GD Politics, Slow Boring, and a bunch of other excellent guests.
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We → break → guests
The stream is open to everyone, but paid subscribers will also get access to our live blog.
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subscribers → get → blog
The blog will include our more detailed analyses — and perhaps some of Nate’s hot takes.
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blog → include → takes
We’ll also be answering subscriber questions.
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We → answer → questions
Once we launch, you’ll be able to find the video and blog at: https://www.natesilver.net/liveblog
Nate and I will be writing on the live blog all night, in addition to popping in and out of the stream.
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I → launch → stream
We hope to see you there!
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We → hope → you
Most, but not all, polling places in Indiana and Kentucky close at 6:00 p.m.
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places → close → Indiana
Both states are solidly red, and only have one statewide contest FLIPR forecasts — the Kentucky Senate race to replace Mitch McConnell — between them.
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FLIPR → have → them
Republicans are almost certain to win that election.
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Republicans → win → election
It’s an open seat (its current holder Andy Barr is running in the aforementioned Senate contest) that voted for Trump by 15 points in 2024.
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that → ’ → 2024
But FLIPR has the race as a pure toss-up, and its projected D +0.1 margin makes it the closest House race in our Deluxe forecast.
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it → have → forecast
Kentucky tends to count results quickly, so we shouldn’t have to wait too long to know which way this potential bellwether breaks.
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bellwether → tend → results
Note: polls in most of Florida will close at 7, but not in the Panhandle, which is on Central Time.
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which → close → Time
There will likely be a fair amount of speculation and tea-leaf-reading about it, but you can find Florida’s statewide races in our 8 p.m. block.
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you → find → block
Still, things really start to pick up at 7.
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things → start → 7
We’ll start to get results from Georgia, and while the Senate race is close to a foregone conclusion, Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms is running in one of the most competitive gubernatorial contests in the country, and her performance could have serious implications for Jon Ossoff’s 2028 aspirations.
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performance → start → aspirations
Luckily, Georgia is required to report early and mail votes by 8 and most of the Election Day votes should come in not too long after.
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most → require → votes
There’s also South Carolina, where Democrats have an outside shot at Lindsey Graham’s former Senate seat.
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Democrats → ’ → seat
A win there would likely indicate a mega blue tsunami.
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win → indicate → tsunami
And in Vermont, incumbent Republican governor Phil Scott will try to beat back the blue wave, despite a slight deficit in the polls.
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Scott → try → polls
Luckily for us, both states are expected to have nearly all of their results in by midnight.
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states → expect → midnight
The Aporia
