Since we’ve recently published some very detailed analysis of basically every race that might matter, I’m not going to go through them state-by-state.
uncertain
I → publish → state
Our forecasts show good numbers for Democrats — the last round of polling resolved any doubt about that.
asserted
round → show → that
They are reasonably clear favorites to flip the Senate, and very likely to flip the House.
asserted
They → flip → House
The Senate is by no means certain, but at the same time, the bottom could fall out for Republicans if Democrats meet or exceed their forecasts on a race-by-race basis.
uncertain
Democrats → fall → basis
It would be a major surprise if Democrats failed to capture the House, along with various state legislatures and governorships, though some of the most important gubernatorial races like Texas and Florida are “Lean R” rather than the “Lean Ds” that are more typical in the Senate.
asserted
that → fail → Senate
Let’s take roughly three beats here:
asserted
’s → let → beats
Returning to where we started when FLIPR launched by considering the background conditions of the election and why they’re so perilous for Republicans — and, I’d argue, ultimately highly consistent with one another.
asserted
I → return → one
One more quick look at polling error, and why Democrats might be able to survive one in the Senate.
uncertain
Democrats → survive → Senate
And then finally, we’ll try something slightly weirder.
asserted
we → try → something
I’ll illustrate my “mental map” of the election, and why my gut feels slightly conflicted this time around.
asserted
gut → illustrate → election
Whether you only come here for election peaks or you're an OG paid subscriber, thank you for following our coverage.
asserted
you → come → coverage
Even as compared to 2024, this election has had a really strong finishing kick in the various metrics we track.
asserted
we → compare → metrics
That’s probably just a reflection of the rhythm of the campaign, though.
asserted
That → ’ → campaign
The most dramatic events of the election two years ago were front-loaded into the summer, and the stretch run was listless, with no presidential debates after Sept. 10.
asserted
run → load → Sept.
This election has felt more like a typical wave, with Democrats’ advantage building over the course of the cycle.
asserted
advantage → feel → cycle
Instead of the back-and-forth that you can get in a presidential year, usually things just get continually worse for one party: Republicans in 2006 and again this year, or Democrats in 2010 and 2014, for instance.
asserted
things → get → instance
Sometimes, like in 1994 and 2014, the actual outcome ends up being even worse than the polls for the party that’s on the back foot.
asserted
that → end → foot
There aren’t many good examples of when the party that seemed to have momentum underperformed — you could sort of argue that for 2022 — though I’m not sure if that’s a durable pattern or something that just reflects small sample sizes.
uncertain
that → be → sizes
The improvement in Democrats’ numbers hasn’t been particularly linear, with a sharp shift shortly after Labor Day, perhaps associated with rising gas and diesel prices.
asserted
improvement → associate → prices
Democrats’ advantage on the generic ballot ramped up from roughly +6.5 to +9, and more or less stayed there.
asserted
advantage → ramp → +9
Mary Peltola is possibly losing altitude in Alaska, conversely, and perhaps Josh Turek in Iowa, but overall this has been a good trade for Democrats, and they’re closing the cycle at their highs in FLIPR.
uncertain
they → lose → FLIPR
Republicans have a lot of problems, but there’s one common cause: Trump
asserted
Republicans → have → problems
We’re long past the days when putting “Trump” in a headline would guarantee you a million clicks, but I wonder if we’ve been overcompensating by not talking about him enough.
asserted
we → ’re → him
Because just take one more look at that 2026 generic ballot chart and compare it to this:
That’s pretty close to a one-for-one match with the generic ballot, although there has been an uptick in Trump’s approval rating over the past few days even though neither the generic ballot nor state-by-state polls have really improved for Republicans.
asserted
ballot → take → Republicans
I do think that offers a glimmer of hope for the GOP: maybe their voters are coming home.
asserted
voters → think → GOP
If Trump’s net approval ratings are -20, then our formula based on all midterms since 1948 would peg the national environment at D +9 — which is exactly what the generic ballot shows.
asserted
ballot → base → what
That’s also similar to Democrats’ +8.6-point margin in the House popular vote in 2018, the previous Trump midterm.
asserted
That → ’ → 2018
There’s just a lot of data that points toward that D +8 or D +9 range, but also a sizable minority of polls, some with strong pollster ratings like NYT/Siena and AtlasIntel, that show a further breakthrough for Democrats, reaching into the double digits in the national vote.
asserted
that → ’ → vote
I can’t get 2018 out of my head.
asserted
I → get → head
I’m not saying it’s Democrats’ floor: FLIPR clearly disagrees with that, in fact.
asserted
FLIPR → say → fact
Gas cost about $2.70 a gallon, not $4.20.
asserted
Gas → cost → 2.70
He hadn’t broken his promises on the Epstein files.
asserted
He → break → files
He was a bit closer to being a true populist and spent less time hanging out in the company of highly unpopular billionaires.
asserted
He → spend → billionaires
AI wasn’t a thing that people had all this anxiety about, and Trump hadn’t positioned himself on the wrong side of a supermajority on data centers.
asserted
Trump → have → centers
And the Republican Party had more holdovers from the pre-Trump era: more John Cornyns, fewer Ken Paxtons.
asserted
Party → have → era
He almost seems to have a death wish in these midterms.
asserted
He → seem → midterms
And the one superpower he has — turning out low-propensity voters in presidential years, the sorts of voters who apparently are often missed by pollsters — has never really worked when Trump himself wasn’t on the ballot.
asserted
Trump → have → ballot
Nor is his base as loyal as you might assume.
uncertain
you → assume → ?
Only 20 percent of voters strongly approve of his performance in office.
asserted
percent → approve → office
(And almost half strongly disapprove.)
asserted
half → disapprove → ?
…and 10 more, not listed.
The Aporia
