In case you missed it, we launched our 2026 election forecast — now named FLIPR — on Tuesday.
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we → miss → Tuesday
But while it currently rates the House as “likely D”, the Senate is still in true tossup territory.1
Why is the upper chamber so competitive?
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chamber → rat → territory.1
Well, it’s pretty simple.
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it → ’ → ?
True, the GOP has few solid pickup opportunities, but they already have 53 senators and a tie-breaking VP.
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they → have → senators
Democrats need to net at least four seats, mostly from states that Donald Trump carried handily in 2024.
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Trump → need → 2024
If the national popular vote comes in anywhere under D +6, Republicans are the clear favorites to retain the Senate.
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Republicans → come → Senate
But Democrats are on track to beat that number, perhaps by a wide margin.
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Democrats → beat → margin
That’s a big enough blue wave to give Democrats a real shot at winning enough competitive seats.
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That → ’ → seats
Some of the data can also seem contradictory, however.
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Some → seem → data
Just this week, Fox News released polls showing Democrat Sherrod Brown leading by 8 points in Ohio — but Abdul El-Sayed trailing by 4 points in Michigan.
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Sayed → release → Michigan
In the context of a presidential race, that wouldn’t make much sense, since Michigan is the considerably bluer state.
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Michigan → make → sense
Particularly if you believe that moderation matters, El-Sayed is arguably a weaker candidate than Brown.2
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Sayed → believe → ?
Brown is also a more familiar face, having served in the Senate from 2007 through 2025.
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Brown → serve → 2025
Outcomes in congressional races are correlated with one another, although considerably less so than in presidential races.
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Outcomes → correlate → races
Still, the more advanced versions of FLIPR are a little bit skeptical about taking these polls at face value.
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versions → take → value
It’s not that they’re necessarily wrong about what might happen in an election held today.
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what → ’ → election
But El-Sayed has several months to repair the damage from a bruising Democratic primary, while Republicans have time to bring the race more in line with fundamentals in Ohio.
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Republicans → have → Ohio
So for my first model talk of the 2026 cycle, I’m bringing back a popular article format from 2024 and taking you on a tour of the seven most likely Senate tipping-point states (plus some honorable mentions at the end).
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I → bring → end
We’ll look at where polls and fundamentals are in tension with one another, like in Michigan, and where they’re more aligned.
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they → look → Michigan
Combined, these races have a 71 percent chance of deciding which party controls the Senate after 2026.3
Full disclosure: we’re cheating just slightly here.
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we → combine → disclosure
For purposes of this article, we’ve promoted North Carolina from that tier into the Big 7.
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we → promote → Big
Our model doesn’t think NC is a particularly likely tipping point because it’s pretty confident that Democrat Roy Cooper will win, perhaps comfortably.
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Cooper → think → ?
Still, nobody should take North Carolina too much for granted: it has only voted for Democrats once for president since 1976 (it went for Barack Obama in 2008) and has frequently been a close-but-not-quite state for Democrats in federal races.
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it → take → races
So it deserves some attention as we explain why FLIPR thinks this might finally be the year for a Democratic breakthrough.
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this → deserve → breakthrough
But let’s begin with Democrats’ white whale: Texas.
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’s → let → whale
The Aporia
