If the midterm elections polls can be believed, the Democratic Party could be about to seize control of the US Congress.
uncertain
Party → believe → Congress
Polling predicts a crushing victory for Democrats in the House of Representatives, where they need to gain four seats.
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they → predict → seats
There is even the possibility of Republicans losing their majority in the Senate, where the Democrats need to defend four seats in tight races and win four more to wrest back control.
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Democrats → be → control
Historically at midterm elections, control of the House can flip.
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control → flip → House
But a path to the Senate for Democrats is quite a turnaround for the party that started out having to "pitch a perfect game", as Jessica Taylor from the Cook Political Report puts it.
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Taylor → start → it
Mr Trump's decision to launch a war on Iran has been pivotal in his sliding popularity.
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decision → launch → popularity
"Typically the president's party loses seats and certainly President Trump's approval ratings were not great before March, but pursuing an unpopular war that drove prices, especially on gasoline and diesel, further up has only put his party in more peril," Ms Taylor said.
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Taylor → lose → peril
LoadingDemocrats now look competitive in Senate races in red states such as Texas, Kansas, Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.
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LoadingDemocrats → look → Texas
They are widely considered likely to win a North Carolina Senate seat off the Republicans, and polling is very tight in the swing state of Michigan, which backed Mr Trump in the presidential race two years ago.
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which → consider → race
But Ms Taylor cautions that polls are only a snapshot of voter sentiment at a moment in time.
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polls → caution → time
"I think this is why we look at polls holistically, rather than one poll, because you can have an outlier ... but we see most of the polls trending in the same direction.
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most → think → direction
I mean, a lot of these polls are just very, very close."
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lot → mean → polls
Ms Taylor says Democrats should not interpret the positive numbers as an endorsement.
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Democrats → say → endorsement
Many analysts, including the founder of the Cook Political Report, are characterising the numbers as more of a "red undertow" than a "blue wave".
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analysts → include → wave
"It's Republicans that are in power and voters have a strong anti-incumbent sentiment right now.
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voters → have → sentiment
It's more like a pox on both their houses," Ms Taylor said.
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Taylor → say → houses
Polls look 'genuinely bad' for Republicans
Many polls are extremely close and within the margin of error (a measure that accounts for how likely it is to be wrong).
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it → look → error
This is similar to the 2024 presidential polls, which were mostly too close to call.
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which → call → polls
Mr Trump ended up sweeping all the swing states, but that was not particularly outside what polls had predicted.
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polls → end → what
"National polls always under count support for Republicans, and with President Trump barnstorming the country and driving our voters to the polls, Republicans are ready to fight, defy history, and protect our majorities," Republican National Committee press secretary Natalie Baldassarre said.
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Baldassarre → count → majorities
Charles Franklin, the director of the respected Marquette Law School Poll, recently told Politico that one of the largest fears for pollsters was that not enough Republicans were responding.
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Republicans → tell → pollsters
"We've done a lot over this past decade to try to improve the control we have over those kinds of errors, but ultimately we can't force people to do polls, and so this remains always a background fear factor," he said.
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he → do → polls
This graph shows how polls have changed this year.
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polls → show → ?
But Republican pollster and strategist Patrick Ruffini said the environment was "genuinely bad" for Republicans.
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environment → say → Republicans
"They look weaker this late in a cycle than I can remember," he told the ABC.
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he → look → ABC
He said there also were complications with where the Democrats were leading.
"
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Democrats → say → ?
The Senate battleground runs through red states like Iowa, Ohio and Texas and these are states that Republicans consistently carry by solid margins, or that the polls have a hard time getting right."
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polls → run → time
Mr Ruffini recently examined more than 3,000 Senate polls from the past eight years to assess their track record.
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Ruffini → examine → record
He found 73 per cent of them had overstated the Democrat candidate.
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cent → find → candidate
In Iowa, Ohio and Michigan, the Democrats were overstated 93 per cent of the time.
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Democrats → overstate → time
"That doesn't mean it will happen again.
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it → mean → ?
Democrats are still gaining in the polls this year," he said.
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he → gain → polls
"The bigger risk is uneven error from state to state, where the national picture is right but some states miss.
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states → miss → state
"Polls have been more accurate in the Sun Belt than in the Rust Belt, so I'd believe a blue Texas before a blue Iowa."
Massive spending ahead of midterms
It is not always the Republicans who defy polls.
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who → believe → polls
In what the US calls off-cycle elections, the Democrats running in high-profile governor races in New Jersey and Virginia have outperformed their polling and won easily.
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Democrats → call → polling
Even with the extraordinary unpopularity of Mr Trump, Democrats are reluctant to consider the midterms sewn up.
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midterms → consider → Trump
Former Obama White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel recently stressed to The New Yorker that he felt only "cautiously optimistic" about the Senate, although he was more confident about the House.
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he → stress → House
It is possible to read some tea leaves about where money is pouring in.
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money → read → leaves
The analytics firm AdImpact calculated that Republicans were out-spending Democrats in 10 battleground Senate races a week out from the election.
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Republicans → calculate → election
The Republican war chest was significantly boosted by MAGA Inc, a political action committee, or PAC, associated with the president.
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chest → boost → president
…and 13 more, not listed.
The Aporia
