Midterms House poll tracker: The 10 races you need to know about

Democrats need a net gain of four seats to seize control of the U.S. House of Representatives in November's midterm elections. asserted

Republicans will go into the 2026 midterms with 219 members caucusing with them in the chamber. asserted

That is a single seat more than the minimum required for a majority when all seats are filled. asserted

The House has 214 Democrats, along with two vacancies. asserted

History suggests Democrats will pick up seats. uncertain

Holding such a slim majority could be tough for Republicans in a midterm year, when voters tend to vote against the party in the White House. uncertain

Republicans have also kick-started a national redistricting battle that could make Democrats' path to a majority slightly more difficult. uncertain

Nine states have undergone redistricting ahead of the 2026 general election. asserted

Voters in all 435 congressional districts choose their representatives in the U.S. House every two years. asserted

Each party's path to a House majority starts with the low-hanging fruit: seats that consistently favor one side so heavily that it isn't worth the opposition trying to compete. asserted

Democrats' path to dismantling the GOP majority depends on flipping the districts where they believe Republicans are most vulnerable. asserted

Republicans' path depends on defending the seats they already represent and ousting Democrats running in Republican-leaning territory. asserted

The backdrop to the vote is that President Donald Trump is deeply unpopular, and the combination of tariffs and the war in Iran has elevated cost-of-living concerns. asserted

Trump's policies have driven up diesel and fertilizer prices, as voters have said affordability is their top issue this cycle. asserted

Here's how to look at the places that are most likely to determine who gets to 218. asserted

High-profile visits and millions in outside cash fuel fierce battle for Gabe Evans' razor-thin Colorado seat A high-stakes brawl for a razor-thin Colorado congressional seat is getting bloody, with millions in outside cash pouring in and attacks flying over college-era vegan stunts and red-meat politics. Democratic challenger Manny Rutinel has emerged as a fundraising juggernaut, out-raising freshman Republican Rep. Gabe Evans in Colorado’s battleground 8th Congressional District — a heavily Hispanic corridor Donald Trump carried by a razor-thin 1.8 percentage points in 2024. Evans is fighting back with scorched-earth attacks, painting Rutinel — a progressive former state lawmaker who took down a moderate in his party's primary — as a radical socialist who's out of touch with everyday voters. asserted

In a bid to frame the showdown as "common sense" versus "crazy," Evans recently took to social media to blast a vintage photo of Rutinel demonstrating against the meat industry during his college days. asserted

The attack has ignited a bizarre proxy war over livestock and ranching in a district known as Colorado's agricultural heartland, prompting Rutinel to hit back with local taco-truck stops to prove his carnivorous credentials. asserted

Sensing a prime opportunity to flip the seat, Democratic heavy hitters are going all in. asserted

Former U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and members of Colorado’s Democratic congressional delegation stormed the trail alongside Rutinel last week to drum up turnout. asserted

The airwaves have become a nonstop slugfest: Outside groups tied to Democrats have dumped $14 million into the district, narrowly outgunning $13 million spent by Republican outfits looking to save Evans' seat on the eve of voting. asserted

Jared Moskowitz's fundraising edge keeps South Florida seat competitive despite GOP mapmakers’ best efforts A brazen Republican scheme to slice and dice Florida’s congressional map is crashing into a wall of Democratic resistance, turning what was supposed to be an easy four-seat GOP power grab into a $40 million slugfest. asserted

Tallahassee Republicans went for the jugular when they carved up districts held by Democratic Reps. Darren Soto, Kathy Castor, Lois Frankel and Debbie Wasserman Schultz. asserted

The aggressive redraw paid off immediately in Soto’s territory, which Donald Trump carried by nearly 18 points — a margin that could prove lethal to the incumbent’s reelection hopes. uncertain

Yet GOP mapmakers may have bitten off more than they can chew. uncertain

Democrats have refused to roll over in districts Trump won by 9 to 10 points, triggering a high-stakes dogfight in South Florida's newly configured battleground, where Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz is fighting tooth and nail to fend off former Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer. asserted

Tensions exploded into the open last week during a candidate forum where Singer repeatedly slammed Moskowitz as a coward for refusing to face him in a televised debate. asserted

Moskowitz isn’t backing down, leaning on a staggering $2.5 million personal fundraising advantage to blanket the airwaves and blunt the GOP's territorial push. asserted

Deep-pocketed outside groups on both sides of the aisle have matched each other dollar for dollar, dumping an eye-watering $20 million each into the district — transforming a supposed Republican victory lap into an all-out trench war on the eve of the midterms. asserted

Backed by an $11 million spending edge, Democrat Christina Bohannan aims to flip Mariannette Miller-Meeks' rural Iowa seat Skyrocketing fuel and fertilizer prices have turned a familiar Iowa grudge match into a perilous high-stakes brawl for Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks on the eve of midterm voting. asserted

Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan, a former state lawmaker who came up short against Miller-Meeks in 2022 and 2024, is betting the third time will be the charm as economic misery ravages the state’s agricultural heartland. asserted

The battlefield shifted dramatically after President Donald Trump's trade tariffs and military strikes on Iran triggered an inflation crisis at the pump and in the field. asserted

With national diesel prices spiking to about $6.33 a gallon and regular unleaded hitting $4.23, according to AAA, everyday affordability has replaced partisan loyalty as voters’ top midterm anxiety. uncertain

Miller-Meeks scrambled to shore up her rural firewall last week, parading officials from the U.S. Department of Agriculture across a district where farms make up nearly a third of the constituency. asserted

The political optics handed Bohannan an immediate opening: The challenger seized on the federal visits to frame the race as “Iowa vs. Washington,” hammering the incumbent as a creature of the beltway while farmers struggle to stay in the black. asserted

Democrats sense blood in the water. asserted

Leaning into a massive air-game edge, Democratic groups have dumped $11 million into the rural battleground to drown out $7 million from Republicans — pushing Miller-Meeks to the brink in one of the Midwest's most volatile House showdowns. asserted

Jared Golden's retirement gives Republicans a prime flip opportunity as Paul LePage and Matt Dunlap battle in rural Maine A fight for Maine’s sprawling 2nd Congressional District has turned into a bare-knuckle clash between political royalty and a scrappy state auditor, with $20 million in outside cash flooding the airwaves on the eve of the midterms. asserted

The exit of centrist Democratic Rep. Jared Golden blew the doors wide open for the GOP in a rural district Donald Trump carried by 9 points in 2024. asserted

Now, combative former two-term Gov. Paul LePage is mounting a fiery comeback bid against progressive Democratic State Auditor Matt Dunlap to flip the seat red. asserted