The fate of Congress hangs in the balance as the outcome of a few key races will determine which party controls the House and Senate for the remainder of Donald Trump's presidency.
asserted
party → hang → presidency
Republicans currently control both chambers, with 53 seats in the 100-seat Senate and 218 seats in the 435-seat House.
asserted
Republicans → control → House
History suggests that Democrats will gain seats, as the party in power usually cedes representation in the midterms.
uncertain
party → suggest → midterms
In 2022, Democrats under President Joe Biden lost nine seats in the House, and in 2018, during Trump’s first term, Republicans lost about 40 seats in the lower chamber.
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Republicans → lose → chamber
Democrats are widely expected to gain enough House seats to take control of that chamber.
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Democrats → expect → chamber
The Senate remains a toss up amid several tightly contested races, many in red states Trump won in 2024.
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Trump → remain → 2024
Between campaigns, super PACs and billionaire donors, hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent on a handful of races.
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hundreds → spend → races
Here are the Senate and House races to watch ahead of election day on Nov. 3.
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races → watch → Nov.
Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan is running for another term against Democrat Mary Peltola, who previously served as the first Alaska native elected to Congress.
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who → run → Congress
But there's also a Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. on the ballot, and his candidacy was part of a broader effort by Democrats to help Peltola’s bid, according to a recent New York Times report.
uncertain
candidacy → be → report
Alaska’s Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy ordered an investigation into Peltolas campaign following the report.
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Dunleavy → order → report
Polling has indicated that Sullivan and Peltola are neck-in-neck, with Peltola occasionally gaining a slim lead.
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Peltola → indicate → lead
While Trump won Alaska in 2024 by 13 points, the race appears to be close enough that he travelled to Wasilla on Oct. 13 to campaign on Sullivan’s behalf.
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he → win → behalf
Alaska uses rank-choice voting, which means that voters will rank their top candidates as opposed to selecting one.
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voters → use → one
This month, the Justice Department filed a preemptive lawsuit seeking to block certification of the election results in Alaska’s Senate race if the election results suggest the incumbent lost due to “voter confusion” due to two Dan. Sullivans on the ballot.
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incumbent → file → ballot
This midwest contest to replace outgoing Republican Sen. Joni Ernst has emerged as among the tightest in the country, with Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, a former broadcast journalist, vying against Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek, a paralympic gold medalist.
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Hinson → replace → Turek
This is another state that Trump won by 13 points in 2024.
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Trump → win → 2024
Yet the recent polling suggests a true toss-up.
uncertain
polling → suggest → up
Hinson, who has represented Iowa in the House since 2021, has distanced herself from Trump, calling for an “immediate end” to the Iran war.
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who → represent → war
Trump campaigned alongside Hinson last week.
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Trump → campaign → Hinson
Michigan’s open Senate rate has emerged as perhaps the most hostile of the midterms.
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rate → emerge → midterms
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a physician and former public health director, has the chance to be the country’s first Muslim senator.
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Sayed → have → chance
He’s facing off against Mike Rogers, a former FBI agent who served in the House before losing a 2024 Senate bid.
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who → face → bid
Both are vying to replace Sen. Gary Peters, the Democrat who has held the seat since 2015.
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who → vie → 2015
El-Sayed won his party’s nomination after a fierce primary against Rep. Haley Stevens, in which his criticism of Israel’s war in Gaza became a lightning rod issue.
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criticism → win → Gaza
Since the primaries, prominent Democrats including Barack Obama, Kamala Harris, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York have all come to Michigan to stump alongside him.
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Democrats → include → him
Sen. Susan Collins, a Republican, is seeking a sixth term in Maine, a moderate blue state.
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Collins → seek → Maine
She is facing off against Democrat Troy Jackson, a logger and former president of the Maine Senate, who became the party’s nominee after the winner of the primary, Graham Platner, withdrew from the race amid sexual assault allegations, which he denies.
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he → face → which
Main is the only state Trump did not win in the 2024 election where an incumbent Republican is up for reelection.
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Republican → win → reelection
Collins has distanced herself from Trump across many policy issues and on the campaign trail.
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Collins → distance → trail
She voted to convict Trump following his impeachment after the January 6 riots on the Capitol.
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She → vote → Capitol
Yet she’s also drawn criticism for backing Trump’s previous picks for the Supreme Court, despite her longstanding support for Roe v. Wade, which the Court later overturned.
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Court → draw → which
Collins is chair of the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee and frequently boasts on the campaign trial of federal dollars she helped steer to the state.
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she → boast → state
Recent polls show Jackson barely leading Collins, in a race that is widely viewed as a toss-up.
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that → show → up
Former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown faces off against Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed by Republican Gov. Mike DeWine to replace Vance when he went to the White House in 2025.
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he → face → 2025
More than $200 million has been contributed in outside spending on this race, making it one of the most expensive this midterm season.
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it → contribute → expensive
Yet the race is a special election to only finish the remainder of Vance’s term.
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race → finish → term
The winner will need to run again in 2028 to secure a full six-year term.
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winner → need → term
While Ohio has mostly voted Republican in recent years, recent polls show Brown ahead.
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Brown → vote → years
Brown served for over a decade in the Senate until losing re-election to Republican Bernie Moreno in 2024.
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Brown → serve → 2024
…and 28 more, not listed.
The Aporia
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