5 reasons why the Democrats might not take control of Congress in U.S. midterms
Even with Donald Trump's deep unpopularity, Democrats face steep climb to flip both House and Senate
Political strategists of both main parties in the U.S. believe it’s almost certain the Democrats will take control of the House of Representatives from the Republicans in Tuesday's midterm elections.
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Democrats → take → elections
The likelihood of the Democratic Party flipping the Senate, however, is another story.
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Party → flip → Senate
In the House, non-partisan election-forecast websites such as Cook Political Report rate the Republicans as vulnerable in as many as 30 GOP-held seats.
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websites → rate → seats
The Democrats need a net gain of merely three to get a majority.
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Democrats → need → majority
Also, consider that the party of the sitting president has suffered a net loss of House seats in all but two midterm elections since the late 1930s, and that no U.S. president has gone into a midterm with a lower approval rating than what Donald Trump has right now.
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Trump → consider → what
But when it comes to the Senate, there are doubts the Democrats have a clear path to flipping the four states they need to reach the majority threshold of 51.
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they → come → 51
Here are five reasons why the Democrats may not wind up with control of both houses of Congress for the remainder of Trump‘s time in office.
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Democrats → wind → office
The 2026 Senate map is tough for Democrats
Flipping the Senate this year was always going to be a tough haul for the Democrats, simply because of their limited opportunities to gain seats in this particular midterm.
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Flipping → flip → midterm
Only one-third of Senate seats are up for grabs each election, because senators are elected to six-year terms.
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senators → elect → terms
Nearly all of the Republican-held seats the Democrats are seeking to flip are in states that Trump carried by at least 11 percentage points in 2024.
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Trump → hold → 2024
That means to get a majority, the Democrats must gain at least two states from a list that includes Ohio, Iowa, Texas, Alaska and Kansas.
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that → mean → Ohio
That will require a giant swing toward the Democrats in states that have long been ruby red.
2.
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that → require → states
There's been a well documented history of polling in the Trump era failing to measure the full extent of support for Republicans.
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polling → be → Republicans
On the final weekend before the 2024 presidential election, a poll in Iowa (by a pollster with a sterling reputation) showed Kamala Harris up by three points.
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Harris → show → points
Trump won the state by 13.
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Trump → win → 13
Polling firms have, over the years, adjusted their methods to try to compensate for the tendency of Democrats to be more likely than Republicans to answer polls.
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firms → adjust → polls
They weight responses so samples better reflect the full demographics of who actually shows up at the polls, factoring in education, income and ethnicity.
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who → weight → education
They ask respondents who they voted for in the last election to check the sample isn’t torqued toward one party or the other.
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sample → ask → party
Polling is a science, but an inexact one, and it’s important to remember its limitations.
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it → ’ → limitations
One key limitation is that when two candidates are polling within the margin of error — say, a lead of just two percentage points — you really can’t say who’s winning.
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who → poll → points
Recent polls in the Senate races in Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Kansas have all shown results within the margin of error.
3.
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polls → show → error
So much depends on turnout
Voter turnout in midterm election years has historically lagged behind turnout in presidential election years.
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turnout → depend → years
The key midterm challenge for each party, whether on the offensive or defensive, is getting their supporters simply to show up.
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supporters → get → offensive
While polling broadly suggests registered Democrats are more enthusiastic about punishing Trump than the Republican base is defending him, Democratic candidates still need help from independent voters to win in toss-up races.
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candidates → suggest → races
It's worth noting that the highest turnout for a midterm election since the First World War came in 2018, during Trump's first term.
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turnout → note → term
One factor that could dampen a blue wave is whether the Democratic Party and its candidates made strong enough arguments for why Americans should vote for them, rather than simply relying on their desire to vote against the Republicans.
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Americans → dampen → Republicans
GOP money has flooded the airwaves
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money → flood → airwaves
Extraordinary amounts of money have gone into campaign advertising this midterm cycle.
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amounts → go → advertising
In just the competitive Senate races, Republicans and their affiliated political action committees (PACs) have spent some $1.2 billion US, outpacing Democrats by $237 million US, according to a Bloomberg analysis of ad-buying data from the consulting firm AdImpact.
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Republicans → spend → firm
Elon Musk alone has spent the staggering sum of nearly half a billion dollars supporting Republican candidates in the midterms ($475 million US, reports the New York Times, $446 million US, according to the Guardian.)
The race to be come the next U.S. senator for Texas — between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico — is poised to become the most expensive non-presidential campaign in history, with spending since the primaries already surpassing $500 million US, according to data compiled by AdImpact.
5.
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spending → spend → .
Democrat candidates could underperform
Don’t discount the possibility the Democrats could fall short in a state or two because their particular candidate fails to capture the full extent of the swing away from the Republicans elsewhere in the country.
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candidate → underperform → country
In Maine, the Democrats had to scramble in July to nominate a candidate to replace Graham Platner, the oysterman who’d attracted national attention for his anti-establishment campaign only to be forced to resign amid allegations he’d sexually assaulted a former partner.
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he → have → partner
His replacement, Troy Jackson, is a logger who’s been a politician for 20 years and, while equally plain-spoken, lacks much of Platner's charisma.
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who → lack → charisma
Jackson is also battling a formidable opponent in Susan Collins, who has held this Senate seat for 30 years despite Maine’s history of voting Democrat for president.
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who → battle → president
Abdul El-Sayed, one of the most left-leaning Senate candidates the party is fielding this cycle, won the bitter nomination battle this summer to replace the retiring Gary Peters.
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party → lean → Peters
Trump has leaned into Islamophobic rhetoric to attack El-Sayed, repeatedly calling him a "jihadist" who's "on the side of the terrorists."
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who → lean → terrorists
The results on Tuesday will give some indication whether those attacks resonated with Michigan voters or repelled them.
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attacks → give → them
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