Trump faces midterm verdict with control of Congress at stake
Nov 3 -
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control → face → stake
American voters will deliver a verdict on the first two years of President Donald Trump's second term in Tuesday's midterm elections, with polls and nonpartisan analysts favoring Democrats to wrest the House from Republicans while control of the Senate remains uncertain.
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control → deliver → Senate
The battle for the Senate is unfolding across nearly 10 closely contested statewide races, most in Republican strongholds.
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battle → unfold → strongholds
History is against Trump's Republicans: the sitting president's party has lost ground in Congress in all but two midterm elections since World War Two.
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party → sit → War
Trump's approval rating is hovering near his all-time lows, dragged down by deep voter frustration over the war with Iran and the resulting rise in fuel prices.
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rating → hover → prices
There is little doubt this year's election is all about Trump, the central US political figure for most of the last decade.
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election → be → decade
Trump himself has told his supporters repeatedly to "pretend I'm on the ballot," a message Democratic leaders have happily echoed.
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leaders → tell → message
The president has sought to energize his base with more than two dozen campaign rallies since the start of October, the vast majority in states he easily won in 2024, underscoring the extent to which Republicans are playing defense.
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Republicans → seek → defense
Led by Trump, Republicans have portrayed Democratic candidates as radical, un-American and even communist.
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Republicans → lead → candidates
"The Democrat Party has nominated the most extreme and dangerous slate of candidates in American history," Trump said on Monday during a speech in Washington.
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Trump → nominate → Washington
But opinion polls show voters are most concerned about affordability and disapprove of Trump's handling of the issue, after his sweeping tariff policy and his decision to attack Iran in February increased domestic costs.
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policy → show → costs
Republican candidates, meanwhile, have struggled to distance themselves from a president who demands fealty and rarely acknowledges mistakes.
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who → struggle → mistakes
All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election, along with 35 of the Senate's 100 seats, though the majority of contests are not considered competitive.
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majority → consider → contests
Democrats must flip at least three House seats and four Senate seats to win a majority in each chamber.
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Democrats → flip → chamber
A Democratic House or Senate could launch investigations into what Democrats describe as self-dealing by the Trump administration and demand concessions to approve legislation.
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Democrats → launch → legislation
A Democratic Senate would also have the power to block Trump appointments, including US Supreme Court nominations if vacancies arise.
But while Democrats have put Republicans on the defensive on much of their home turf, they have little margin for error.
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they → have → error
The party must defend all of its current seats, including a tight race in Michigan, while winning at least two states that voted for Trump by a double-digit margin two years ago: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas.
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that → defend → margin
Opinion polls show Democrats either narrowly leading or within striking distance in all of those states.
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Democrats → show → states
MICHIGAN RACE ROILED BY CROSS-PARTY ENDORSEMENT
The Michigan Senate contest between progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, 42, and Republican former US Representative Mike Rogers, 63, received a fresh jolt on Sunday, when Democrat Haley Stevens, who narrowly lost to El-Sayed in the party's primary election, endorsed Rogers in a surprise reversal.
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who → roil → reversal
In addition to the implications for Senate control, the Michigan race represents a high-profile test of whether Republicans' identity-based attacks – El-Sayed would be the nation's first Muslim senator — prove effective in a battleground state.
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Sayed → represent → state
A win for El-Sayed, who has criticized Israel and supports liberal policies such as universal healthcare, would also be seen as a boost for the party's left wing ahead of the 2028 presidential election.
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who → criticize → election
The Alaska Senate race has been caught up in its own turmoil, after the New York Times reported that the campaign of Democratic candidate Mary Peltola, 53, helped recruit a third candidate who shares the first and last name of her Republican opponent, Dan Sullivan, 61.
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who → catch → opponent
Peltola has denied involvement.
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Peltola → deny → involvement
Trump's Justice Department has launched a criminal probe into the allegations and filed a lawsuit to block certification of the election results, though a judge dismissed the latter effort.
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judge → launch → effort
In Texas, Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico, 37, has his party once again dreaming of winning the biggest Republican state after decades of heartbreak.
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party → dream → heartbreak
His scandal-plagued opponent, Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, 63, has benefited from a nine-figure investment from the world's richest man, Elon Musk, who has spent hundreds of millions of dollars boosting Republicans.
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who → plague → Republicans
In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton, 62, a megachurch pastor, held a narrow polling lead over Republican US Senator Roger Marshall, 66.
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Hamilton → hold → Marshall
The state voted for Trump by more than 16 percentage points in 2024 and has not elected a Democratic senator in nearly a century.
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state → vote → century
And in Maine, Republican US Senator Susan Collins, 73, is once again seeking to defy the Democratic leanings of her home state and win a sixth term.
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Collins → seek → term
She faces Democrat Troy Jackson, 58, a former state senate president who unexpectedly became the nominee after Democratic oyster farmer Graham Platner dropped out amid accusations of misconduct, which he denied.
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he → face → which
Other competitive Senate races are taking place in Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio and South Carolina, all Republican-held seats.
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races → take → Iowa
If the other contests all proceed as predicted, Democrats would need to win only 13 of those 46 races to secure a majority.
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Democrats → proceed → majority
The fight for the House has been waged largely on Republican turf, including some districts Trump carried by double digits in 2024.
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Trump → wag → 2024
A Trump-backed Republican effort to redraw districts in several states to make them safer for the party appears not to have yielded the gains the White House expected.
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House → back → gains
Democrats have warned that Trump, who has long falsely claimed that US elections are rigged, may attempt to challenge Tuesday's results if Republicans lose.
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Republicans → warn → results
In addition to its actions in Alaska, Trump's Justice Department also filed a lawsuit in California to block ballots it says may be invalid, a break from decades of practice meant to insulate elections from political influence.
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it → file → influence
The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday rejected the administration's request for an emergency order in the case.
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Court → reject → case
Three dozen governors' races will also take place on Tuesday, as well as thousands of state-level legislative contests and ballot measures on everything from a billionaires' tax to abortion rights.
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races → take → rights
The Aporia
