In 2024, America swung to the right, powering Donald Trump back to the White House with the popular vote behind him and his Republican Party winning majorities in both the House and Senate.
asserted
Party → swing → House
Just two years later, the country appears to be shifting in the opposite direction.
asserted
country → appear → direction
Midterm elections are almost always a referendum on the party in power in Washington, and Democrats hope to capitalize on deep voter dissatisfaction with the president’s job performance and what they’ve framed as a crisis of affordability that Republicans have done little to abate.
asserted
Republicans → hope → little
The battle for the Senate, always more of an uphill climb for Democrats to win, appears close, with limited public polling showing tight contests in a number of key states.
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Democrats → win → states
The House, however, appears to be Democrats’ to lose.
asserted
House → appear → ?
Democrats could add anywhere from a handful of seats to several dozen to their count, according to an NBC News Decision Desk analysis of three different indicators of the national political environment.
uncertain
Democrats → add → environment
But it’s not impossible that Republicans could hang on — or at least, prevent the Democratic Party from running up the score — thanks to a friendlier map bolstered by Trump’s redistricting push.
uncertain
Republicans → ’ → push
Most Republican-held seats are in districts Trump won by double digits in 2024, meaning Democrats will have to reach further into states and districts Trump won to make big gains.
asserted
Trump → hold → gains
And while elections are more nationalized today than in the past, not every district will see its vote results shift perfectly in line with the national trend.
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results → nationalize → trend
The individual characteristics of a district, as well as what voters there care about, play an important role in determining a winner.
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voters → care → winner
The candidates themselves matter, too, and incumbency can still be a powerful advantage for those seeking re-election.
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incumbency → matter → election
Even so, looking ahead to how House control could play out on election night requires making an assumption about the size of the national partisan shift toward Democrats, and away from the baseline set by 2024.
uncertain
control → look → 2024
For our analysis, we examine three ways of estimating that shift: recent polling data, past vote patterns and special election results.
asserted
we → examine → shift
If the polls are right
Districts to watch: OH-9, FL-14, TX-28
The NBC News polling average currently shows that 52% of likely voters prefer that the U.S. House be controlled by the Democrats, and 43% prefer the Republicans to be in control.
asserted
Republicans → watch → control
This 9-point gap also matches the preferences of all registered voters in the most recent NBC News Decision Desk poll.
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gap → match → poll
To turn this 9-point margin into a shift, we compare it to the national popular vote in 2024.
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we → turn → 2024
Trump won the popular vote by 1.5 percentage points, meaning that a 9-point preference for the Democrats in 2026 translates to a 10.5-point shift from the 2024 results.
asserted
preference → win → results
There are 238 House districts that Trump lost or won by less than 10.5 points, meaning that a shift this size could result in the Democrats winning 238 seats, a slightly larger congressional majority than they did in the 2018 midterms at 235.
uncertain
they → be → 235
Under this scenario, we would expect to see extremely close races in some of those Democratic-held districts that Republicans redrew since Trump’s re-election in an effort to create safe Republican seats.
asserted
Republicans → expect → seats
One example is Ohio’s 9th District, where Democrat Marcy Kaptur, the longest-serving woman in congressional history, is seeking re-election.
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Kaptur → serve → election
Republicans have tried unsuccessfully to oust Kaptur for years, and her district was redrawn last year to be out of reach for even someone with her political survival skills.
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district → try → skills
Trump would have won it in 2024 by 10.6 points.
asserted
Trump → win → points
A national shift of 10.5 would give Kaptur at least a fighting chance to thwart her Republican opponents once again.
asserted
shift → give → opponents
Republicans redrew its lines so that Trump would have won it in 2024 by 10.5 points.
asserted
Trump → redrew → points
If the national shift is 10.5 points, Rep. Kathy Castor, the Democratic incumbent, will have a chance to hold the seat.
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Castor → have → seat
Republicans redrew this formerly 7-point Trump district into a 10.4-point one in the hope of finally dethroning Cuellar, who has survived despite South Texas moving to the right, and despite being indicted on bribery and money laundering charges.
asserted
Texas → redrew → charges
(He was later pardoned by Trump.)
asserted
He → pardon → Trump
Even though Republicans are excited about their candidate, Tano Tijerina, and have spent big to keep the seat competitive, the Decision Desk rates the race as lean Democratic.
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Desk → spend → Democratic
If the polls are underestimating Republicans
Districts to watch: PA-10, VA-1
Given polling misses in recent elections, it is possible that polling is overstating popular support for the Democrats.
asserted
polling → underestimate → Democrats
If that’s true this year, the battle for the House looks more like a coin flip.
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battle → ’ → flip
Voter demographics in the most recent midterms, 2022, with then-President Joe Biden in the White House, favored Republicans, were older and whiter.
asserted
demographics → favor → House
If we take the demographic profiles of the most recent Decision Desk poll respondents and compare them with the typical composition of those 2022 voters, as we did for a recent polling analysis, that 9-point advantage for Democrats among registered voters shrinks to just a 4-point lead over the Republicans.
asserted
advantage → take → Republicans
Comparing this finding to the 2024 results suggests that, under this scenario, the national shift would be about 5.5 points toward the Democrats.
uncertain
shift → compare → Democrats
A shift of this size still gives Democrats a razor-thin edge — 220 seats for the Democrats to the Republicans’ 215.
asserted
shift → give → 215
A slim majority like this would match the pattern of the past three general elections, where neither party has come out of the election with a majority of more than nine seats.
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party → match → seats
The GOP’s path to maintaining its majority would require a slightly narrower national shift toward the Democrats — about 4.5 points — or a few Republican candidates outrunning the national political headwinds by just enough to win some close races.
asserted
path → maintain → races
In these instances, party control of Congress would come down to districts like Pennsylvania’s 10th District.
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control → come → District
Represented by Republican Scott Perry, it’s been a target of the Democratic Party for the past few elections, without success.
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it → represent → success
In 2024, Trump won the district by 5.3 points, while Perry carried it by only 1.3 points.
asserted
Perry → win → points
For the Republicans to hold the House, they would need Perry to outperform that national shift.
asserted
Perry → hold → shift
…and 40 more, not listed.
The Aporia
