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Democrats are heading into the final week before the midterm elections with a strong lead on the congressional ballot, but a new poll has revealed warning signs that could limit their gains as concerns grow over whether key groups will turn out to vote.
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groups → sign → gains
The NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found Democrats leading Republicans by eight points among likely voters when asked which party's candidate they would support in their congressional district if the election were held today.
But the survey also found that enthusiasm is lagging among several groups that have become important to the Democratic coalition, while Republicans have closed the gap in how closely voters are following the election.
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voters → find → election
Anxiety also lingers within the Democratic ranks about their chances of winning.
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Anxiety → linger → chances
While 98 percent of Democratic likely voters said they would vote for their party's candidate, only 81 percent believed that candidate would win, a 17-point gap.
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candidate → say → candidate
Among Republicans, the difference between intending to vote for their candidate and expecting them to win was smaller, at 10 points.
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them → intend → points
The findings point to a striking confidence gap between the two parties as the final stretch of the campaign approaches.
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stretch → point → campaign
Democrats hope to capitalize on President Donald Trump's unpopularity and growing economic concerns to regain control of Congress.
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Democrats → hope → Congress
While 98 percent of Democratic likely voters said they would vote for their party's candidate, only 81 percent believed that candidate would win, a 17-point gap
Among Republicans, the difference between intending to vote for their candidate and expecting them to win was smaller, at 10 points
Trump's approval rating stood at just 40 percent among likely voters, with 59 percent disapproving of his performance
Trump's approval rating stood at just 40 percent among likely voters, with 59 percent disapproving of his performance.
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percent → say → performance
His personal favorability was even lower, with 37 percent viewing him favorably and 59 percent holding a negative opinion.
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percent → view → opinion
And more than twice as many likely voters said their vote would be against Trump as said it would be in support of him, with 44 percent choosing the former compared with 21 percent the latter.
Yet the poll suggests that dissatisfaction with Trump does not automatically translate into votes for Democrats.
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dissatisfaction → say → Democrats
Just 42 percent of likely voters under 45 said they were 'very enthusiastic' about voting, compared with 68 percent of MAGA voters.
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they → say → voters
The figure was 53 percent among non-white voters and 56 percent among white women with college degrees, which are all groups that disapproved of Trump's job performance.
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that → disapprove → performance
Democrats still have an overall enthusiasm advantage, with 71 percent of Democratic likely voters saying they were very enthusiastic about voting, compared with 61 percent of Republicans.
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they → have → Republicans
But the gap between the parties in how closely they are following the election has narrowed sharply.
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they → follow → election
Just 42 percent of likely voters under 45 said they were 'very enthusiastic' about voting, compared with 68 percent of MAGA voters
Democrats still have an overall enthusiasm advantage, with 71 percent of Democratic likely voters saying they were very enthusiastic about voting, compared with 61 percent of Republicans
Changes to congressional district maps have tilted the playing field toward Republicans, potentially limiting how many seats Democrats can pick up even if they perform strongly nationally
Last month, 42 percent of Democrats said they were following the election very closely, compared with just 34 percent of Republicans.
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they → say → Republicans
The latest poll put the figures at 46 percent for Democrats and 45 percent for Republicans.
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poll → put → Republicans
The poll's findings suggest that Democrats face another challenge beyond Trump's unpopularity.
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Democrats → suggest → unpopularity
Changes to congressional district maps have tilted the playing field toward Republicans, potentially limiting how many seats Democrats can pick up even if they perform strongly nationally.
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they → tilt → seats
Historically, Democratic leads of this size on the congressional ballot have accompanied major gains.
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leads → accompany → gains
The party had a seven-point advantage in 2018 and a 12-point lead in 2006, winning at least 30 House seats in both elections.
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party → have → elections
But the redistricting that followed the 2020 Census, along with a series of mid-decade map changes, has altered the landscape.
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that → follow → landscape
The economy remains a central concern for voters.
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economy → remain → voters
Thirty-eight percent said their personal finances had worsened over the past year, while a third said they had experienced financial hardship.
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they → say → hardship
The survey also found that 55 percent of likely voters believed it was more important to elect candidates with new ideas who would bring change.
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who → find → change
The NPR/PBS News/Marist poll surveyed 1,289 registered voters on October 19 and 20, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points among registered voters and 3.8 points among likely voters.
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poll → survey → voters
The Aporia
