The Aporia
The Aporia
11 articles about 11 events for “Democrats Lead In House Polls” from Silver Bulletin.
“And just to be clear, if Republicans have won the House, that’s almost certainly a major disaster for Democrats in the Senate.”
“The GOP-commissioned polls3 imply a Senate map that is at best a toss-up for Republicans, but really leaning D, along with deep prospective gains for Democrats in the House and bad results for Republicans in swing-state governorships.”
“And how bad could the map get for Republicans if polls underrate Democrats instead?”
““Dozens of lawmakers are now touting new proposals to regulate artificial-intelligence models that have stepped up their capabilities,” according to the Wall Street Journal, and House Democrats are now considering creating a select committee focused on AI.”
“Democrats’ big lead on the generic ballot is consistent with history It’s not hard to understand why Democrats have made further gains in polls lately.”
“(Good polls for Democrats in Maine and Michigan yesterday offset some of the recent movement.) I didn’t discuss this on the podcast, but another factor is that the way the model uses expert ratings.”
“…ed. [But] with the midterm model, 80 percent of the work is in gathering these 68 fucking files that we have, and making sure that the 550-odd races5 that we’re forecasting — governor, House, Senate — making sure all that information is accurate, merging…”
“…R makes a more comprehensive series of adjustments: FLIPR’s house effects adjustment — house effects are persistent differences in polling firms tending to rate Republicans or Democrats more highly — is more robust because FLIPR has more data to rely upon: it…”
“Anthropic is very impressive, I would say, given that it’s kind of stayed in the lead lap without that kind of heritage — but at the same time, it started with a lot of seed capital.”
“So, you can’t really trust anything going on in the polls before then.”
“It applies a likely voter adjustment, which in this case benefits Democrats and moves their lead from D +7.5 to D +8.2. -EMD, 9/15/26 This is the landing page for Silver Bulletin’s 2026 generic congressional ballot polling average.”