The author discusses their podcast "Still Counting" and its first episode, which covers competitive Senate races and the changing political mood. The generic ballot among likely voters has shifted from a Democratic lead of 8.1 points to 7.6 points, affecting the authors' Senate forecast. The forecast now slightly favors Republicans due to this movement and how expert ratings are used in the model.
Written by the local model on 2026-09-11,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Story summary
As midterm elections approach, Nate Silver at Silver Bulletin warns against expecting dramatic late shifts in polls like those seen in presidential years, noting that congressional races tend to stabilize after Labor Day. Meanwhile, Donald Trump continues to draw attention with erratic social media posts on platforms like YouTube and Substack, including bizarre memes and dystopian imagery.
In Pennsylvania, Democratic Senator John Fetterman faces criticism from within his party for appearing by video at the Republican National Convention to endorse their candidate Dave McCormick. This move has drawn sharp rebukes from potential rivals such as Rep. Brendan Boyle and Conor Lamb, who compare Fetterman's praise of Trump and McCormick to propaganda in authoritarian regimes.
The Republican midterm convention in Dallas highlights a strategy to portray Democrats as threats to national identity and security. Keynote speakers like Vice President JD Vance position themselves for the 2028 presidential race by rallying support against perceived Democratic "radicals," focusing on issues of family values rather than economic concerns highlighted by voters.
Written for “Midterm Election Campaigns” on 2026-09-12,
grounded in this article and the 58 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted
verbatim and was checked against the article text before being
stored, so you can find it in the original.
Leaning score +0.35 for article 7725 (high confidence, 1 verified quote) · logged 2026-09-11
The first official episode of Still Counting is out!
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episode → count → ?
Clare, Galen, and I discussed the most competitive Senate races, the GOP’s first-ever midterm convention, Trump’s standing within the Republican coalition, and how the political mood has changed over the past year.
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mood → discuss → year
I also chatted about why our Senate forecast has moved just a hair in the Republican direction over the past few weeks.
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forecast → chat → weeks
It’s mostly that the generic ballot among likely voters has shifted from D +8.1 to D +7.6 since forecast launch.
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ballot → ’ → launch
That type of movement in the generic ballot is not a big deal unto itself, but probabilistic forecasts are particularly sensitive when they’re near 50/50, as our Senate forecast is.
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forecast → ’re → 50/50
(Good polls for Democrats in Maine and Michigan yesterday offset some of the recent movement.)
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polls → offset → movement
I didn’t discuss this on the podcast, but another factor is that the way the model uses expert ratings.
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model → discuss → ratings
They’re currently slightly helping Democrats in the House but Republicans in the Senate — that’s probably a good subject for a future Model Talk.
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that → help → Talk
You can watch the first episode of Sill Counting above.
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You → watch → Counting
For those who still prefer to listen to podcasts — I’m one of you! — follow us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
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I → prefer → Podcasts
We’ve gotten a warm reception so far, which we deeply appreciate, but reviews, comments, likes and subscribes are always great.
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reviews → get → which
New episodes of Still Counting will drop weekly, late Wednesday afternoon or early evening, with occasional bonus episodes and emergency pods.
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episodes → count → episodes
And if you want to subscribe to Silver Bulletin while you’re at it, that link is below.
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link → want → it
We’ve been publishing a lot lately, including relaunching our NFL forecast.
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We → publish → forecast
Finally done with model work for a few months1, I’m hoping to get around to some of the items that slid down my to-do list, including some commentary on recent developments in AI.
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that → do → AI
