FLIPR, a political analysis model, now predicts Democrats have between a 63% to 69% chance of winning control of the U.S. Senate, contrary to other experts like The Cook Political Report who still classify several races as toss-ups. FLIPR's prediction aligns closely with prediction markets showing Democrats at a 61% likelihood of success. The article highlights how current economic issues such as high gas prices and President Trump’s low approval ratings are bolstering the Democratic advantage, consistent with historical trends in midterm elections.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-21,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Story summary
Nate Silver's analysis in the Silver Bulletin suggests that forecasts predicting a Republican victory in the U.S. Senate are overly conservative compared to model predictions. According to FLIPR, Nate Silver’s forecasting tool, Democrats now have between 63% and 69% chance of winning control of the Senate across various versions of the model. The "Deluxe" version predicts a 65% likelihood for Democrats, indicating that the battle is no longer a toss-up but leaning slightly toward Democrats.
Silver notes that prediction markets also favor Democrats with around a 61% probability. In contrast, expert ratings like those from the Cook Political Report, which still classify seven races as "toss-ups," appear out of sync with these predictions. For instance, in New Hampshire, models and markets show Democrats as heavy favorites despite being labeled as toss-ups by some experts.
This discrepancy highlights a potential misalignment between expert ratings and data-driven model forecasts, suggesting that current expert assessments might underestimate Democratic chances in the upcoming Senate races.
Written for “Midterm Election Predictions” on 2026-10-04,
grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
In FLIPR’s view, it’s no longer accurate to describe the battle for the U.S. Senate as a “toss-up.”
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it → ’ → up
In our terminology, that designation covers all races where neither party has more than a 60 percent chance of winning.
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party → cover → chance
But Democrats’ Senate chances are now between 63 percent and 69 percent in all three versions of FLIPR, including 65 percent in our headline “Deluxe” version.
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chances → include → version
It’s sometimes nice for forecasters when races are toss-ups; it keeps you from putting your neck out too far.
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it → ’ → neck
Democrats are kicking the equivalent of a 50+ yard field goal.
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Democrats → kick → goal
Kickers make most of those kicks these days, but there are still plenty of ways to shank it.
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Kickers → make → it
But for what it’s worth, FLIPR is in pretty strong alignment with prediction markets, which have Democrats at 61 percent to win the Senate.
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which → ’ → Senate
Conversely, expert ratings imply a much different political environment.
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ratings → imply → environment
The Cook Political Report, for example, counts seven races as “toss-ups,” including states like New Hampshire where models and prediction markets imply that Democrats are heavy favorites.
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Democrats → count → Hampshire
And it’s becoming harder to justify by the day.
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it → become → day
There’s not much longer to go — 44 days until Nov. 3 — and both national polls and race-by-race polls have been extremely strong for Democrats since Labor Day.
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polls → ’ → Day
Democrats’ big lead on the generic ballot is consistent with history
It’s not hard to understand why Democrats have made further gains in polls lately.
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Democrats → ’ → polls
Gas prices have spiked to almost $4.50 per gallon, up 37 cents from a month ago and $1.29 from a year ago.
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prices → spike → gallon
Diesel prices have risen even more and affect more consumers than you might think.
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you → rise → consumers
Meanwhile, President Trump’s disapproval rating is now 58.9 percent, the highest of his term so far, and his net approval rating of -20.5 is basically tied for his worst.1
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rating → tie → worst.1
Our model includes an internal calculation of what it thinks the national environment “should” be given the president’s approval rating, the results of the previous Congressional election, and the level of political polarization.2 This calculation, which is calibrated based on all races for Congress since World War II, has only a modest effect on the model3, but it still serves as a good benchmark.
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it → include → benchmark
Currently, it says Democrats “should” win the popular vote for the U.S. House by 8.7 points.
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Democrats → say → points
In other words, that’s what history says to expect in a midterm with a president this unpopular, even after accounting for the fact that high partisanship dampens political swings.
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partisanship → ’ → swings
So … where exactly do Democrats stand on the generic ballot?
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Democrats → stand → ballot
They’re up almost exactly that amount, 8.6 percentage points, after applying FLIPR’s likely voter adjustment:
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They → ’re → adjustment
So 2026 is a year when current and historical trends align in a surprisingly neat way.
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trends → align → way
But an environment like this would produce huge gains for Democrats.
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environment → produce → Democrats
As Nate Cohn writes, we’re tracking toward around an 11-point swing from 2024, when Trump and Republicans narrowly won the popular vote for both the presidency and the House.
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Trump → write → presidency
That’s an interesting number if you look at the 2024 presidential vote because it means potentially breaching the “red wall” of states that wouldn’t ordinarily be competitive.
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that → ’ → states
The Aporia
