Claims extracted
20
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
0%
0 of 20 hedged
("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
not measured
these signals count newsroom corrections;
Commentary has none to count
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
They began the month with a generic congressional ballot lead of D +6.4.
asserted
They → begin → D
As of today, they’re up to D +7.5.
asserted
they → ’re → D
That’s a high point for the party this cycle.
asserted
That → ’ → party
We also post a different version of our generic ballot average on our midterm election forecast page.
asserted
We → post → page
It applies a likely voter adjustment, which in this case benefits Democrats and moves their lead from D +7.5 to D +8.2.
asserted
which → apply → D
We’ll regularly update the charts below as new generic ballot polls come in, and eventually, this average will feed into our 2026 midterm forecast model.1
asserted
average → update → model.1
This page is designed to be viewed on the web rather than in our email client or in the Substack app.
asserted
page → design → app
Click here for more information on how the average works.
asserted
average → click → information
The Silver Bulletin average weights more reliable polls more heavily — you can find our latest pollster ratings here.
asserted
you → weight → ratings
Who is favored to win the House in 2026?
asserted
Who → favor → 2026
Our default average reflects a combination of all polls, whether conducted among adults, registered voters or likely voters.
asserted
average → reflect → adults
If a pollster releases multiple versions of the same survey, we use the likely voter version before the registered voter version.2 That’s because for this average, we’re interested in people who plan on voting in 2026.
asserted
who → release → 2026
Every generic ballot poll in our database
Each poll gets an “influence” score based on its pollster rating, its sample size, its recency, and how often a pollster is publishing numbers.
asserted
pollster → get → numbers
You can find that in the table below.
asserted
You → find → table
Sometimes, surveys with mediocre pollster ratings have more weight in the model just because they were conducted very recently or polled more people.3
Inevitably, there’s a lot of disagreement from survey to survey, not just because of statistical variation, but because some polling firms consistently lean toward Democrats or Republicans.
asserted
firms → have → Democrats
By clicking on the “adjusted results” tab, you can see how the “house effects” adjustment that corrects for these predictable differences works in our model.
asserted
that → click → model
You can also click here to download every generic ballot poll in our database — including some additional details not shown in the chart below.
asserted
You → click → chart
State benchmarks and every generic ballot poll since 1994
We also have two cool features we’re reserving for paying subscribers:
Benchmarks in each state.
asserted
we → have → state
Which party would we expect to be ahead in, say, Georgia or Michigan or Ohio, given the current generic ballot?
asserted
we → expect → ballot
You can find all of that, plus downloadable generic ballot data for the past 30 years, below.
asserted
You → find → years
The Aporia
