The latest update on the generic congressional ballot shows Democrats with a margin of D +6.6, similar to their lead at the beginning of August (D +6.5). The Silver Bulletin's average incorporates "likely voter" adjustments, which benefits Democrats and increases their lead to D +7.6. This is based on polling data weighted towards more reliable polls, and the outlet uses a complex model that takes into account factors like pollster ratings and sample size. The generic ballot has seen little movement over the past month, according to the Silver Bulletin's update.
Written by the local model on 2026-08-31,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Story summary
As of August 28, 2026, Democrats hold a slight lead over Republicans in the generic congressional ballot, with a margin of D +6.6. This means that if the election were held today, Democrats would likely win approximately 6.6% more seats than Republicans in Congress. In comparison to earlier this month, there has been little movement in the generic ballot, with a nearly identical lead of D +6.5 at the beginning of August. Silver Bulletin's latest polling average takes into account various factors, including the reliability of each poll and the likelihood of voter turnout, which slightly benefits Democrats and adjusts their lead to D +7.6 when applying a likely voter adjustment.
Written for “Generic Congressional Ballot” on 2026-08-31,
grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
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🕒 The latest on the generic ballot
Updated August 28, 2026
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latest → update → ballot
The generic ballot hasn’t seen much movement over the past month.
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ballot → see → month
Today, Democrats’ margin is sitting at D +6.6.
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margin → sit → D
In other Silver Bulletin news, we launched our 2026 midterm election forecast this month.
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we → launch → forecast
We also post a slightly different version of our generic congressional ballot average on that page.
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We → post → page
It applies a likely voter adjustment, which in this case benefits Democrats and moves their lead from D +6.6 to D +7.6.
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which → apply → D
We’ll regularly update the charts below as new generic ballot polls come in, and eventually, this average will feed into our 2026 midterm forecast model.1
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average → update → model.1
This page is designed to be viewed on the web rather than in our email client or in the Substack app.
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page → design → app
Click here for more information on how the average works.
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average → click → information
The Silver Bulletin average weights more reliable polls more heavily — you can find our latest pollster ratings here.
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you → weight → ratings
Who is favored to win the House in 2026?
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Who → favor → 2026
Our default average reflects a combination of all polls, whether conducted among adults, registered voters or likely voters.
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average → reflect → adults
If a pollster releases multiple versions of the same survey, we use the likely voter version before the registered voter version.2
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we → release → version
That’s because for this average, we’re interested in people who plan on voting in 2026.
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who → ’ → 2026
Every generic ballot poll in our database
Each poll gets an “influence” score based on its pollster rating, its sample size, its recency, and how often a pollster is publishing numbers.
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pollster → get → numbers
You can find that in the table below.
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You → find → table
Sometimes, surveys with mediocre pollster ratings have more weight in the model just because they were conducted very recently or polled more people.3
Inevitably, there’s a lot of disagreement from survey to survey, not just because of statistical variation, but because some polling firms consistently lean toward Democrats or Republicans.
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firms → have → Democrats
By clicking on the “adjusted results” tab, you can see how the “house effects” adjustment that corrects for these predictable differences works in our model.
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that → click → model
You can also click here to download every generic ballot poll in our database — including some additional details not shown in the chart below.
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You → click → chart
State benchmarks and every generic ballot poll since 1994
We also have two cool features we’re reserving for paying subscribers:
Benchmarks in each state.
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we → have → state
Which party would we expect to be ahead in, say, Georgia or Michigan or Ohio, given the current generic ballot?
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we → expect → ballot
You can find all of that, plus downloadable generic ballot data for the past 30 years, below.
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You → find → years
