Uncertainty is the point: The growing drone campaign stalking NATO’s skies
Growing numbers operating in grey zone with 'substantial impunity' increasingly blamed on Russia
As concerns rise about a Russian strike on NATO territory, the alliance’s top commander spelled out the consequences of any direct attack, promising Monday that “we will fight.”
asserted
we → grow → attack
But countries belonging to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) are already contending with a menace that is much harder to fight and is increasingly stalking their skies with impunity.
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that → belong → impunity
Suspected Russian drones have repeatedly entered NATO airspace on its eastern flank, in countries like Romania and Poland, and the organization's jets have scrambled multiple times to head off a possible attack.
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jets → enter → attack
But there are also hundreds and hundreds of ambiguous drones that have been increasingly spotted over sensitive sites — military bases, nuclear power plants and airports — in NATO countries as far west as Germany, Belgium and France, causing disruptions at airports and exposing gaps in defence.
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that → be → defence
It has the hallmarks of a deliberate campaign to stoke fear and uncertainty — and the problem appears to be growing.
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problem → have → fear
German authorities, for instance, have clocked more than 1,000 suspicious drone-related incidents since January 2025, CBC News has learned.
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News → clock → January
That's about 1.5 incidents a day on average over “critical infrastructure, military facilities and defence companies,” according to the country's Federal Criminal Police Office.
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That → accord → Office
The mysterious drones repeatedly spotted across Europe are difficult to detect and intercept and, as a result, hard to attribute.
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drones → spot → result
But taken together, the pattern that emerges strongly suggests they are one element of a Russian hybrid campaign, say defence experts.
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experts → take → campaign
“There is an increase in the absolute number,” said Ulrike Franke, one of Europe’s foremost drone experts, in an interview from Paris.
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Franke → be → Paris
“And I'm comfortable to say that it is very likely, if not certainly, linked to Russian aggression towards Europe, and the war that Russia is waging against Ukraine and the war it sees itself in against the West.
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it → say → West
Mysterious drone-related incidents have occurred over Europe for years, prompting accusations of a below-the-radar “hybrid warfare,” meaning non-conventional means of undermining an adversary, staying below the threshold of an open war.
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incidents → relate → war
But such incidents spiked in number last fall and now again appear to be on the rise.
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incidents → spike → rise
Norway has seen more than 300 occurrences so far this year, leading to six airport interruptions, a spokesperson told CBC News.
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spokesperson → see → News
In the U.K., drone incidents near military bases have reportedly doubled over the past year.
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incidents → double → year
On Sept. 12, a suspected drone sighting again interrupted flights at Brussels Airport.
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sighting → suspect → Airport
A week later, another diverted 19 flights from Luxembourg Airport, affecting nearly 2,000 passengers.
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another → divert → passengers
Four days later, Berlin’s main airport was shut down after a drone was spotted over its north runway.
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drone → shut → runway
“It's hybrid warfare,” Elio Di Rupo, a member of the European Parliament and its security defence committee, and a former Belgian prime minister, said in an interview.
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Rupo → say → interview
“It’s not only the drone war, but cyber attacks.
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It → ’ → ?
And all together, it’s a real war, but we don’t see nobody, except indeed the drones.”
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we → ’ → drones
Elio Di Rupo spoke with CBC News in Mons, Belgium, about what he says is a new kind of war.
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he → speak → war
Exact numbers are hard to come by, making it a challenge to connect the dots across Europe.
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it → come → Europe
CBC reached out to 11 national air traffic authorities, several EU organizations, research institutes and think-tanks as well as NATO.
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CBC → reach → authorities
NATO refused a request for a tally, referring CBC News to national authorities instead, which have various mechanisms to track data.
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which → refuse → data
European Union organizations were also unable to provide data, pointing out that defence is a national domain.
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defence → provide → data
In one snapshot, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) reported 144 suspicious drones flew over sensitive sites with “substantial impunity" in a dozen NATO countries over 18 months ending in February.
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drones → report → February
The report adds they were likely launched from a Russian “shadow fleet” — tankers and other vessels that the country uses to clandestinely evade sanctions and export oil.
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country → add → oil
Russia has repeatedly rejected all such accusations.
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Russia → reject → accusations
This photo taken in October 2025 off the coast of France shows the tanker Boracay from Russia's so-called 'shadow fleet' suspected of being involved in drone flights over Denmark.
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photo → take → Denmark
The authors of the IISS report point out their argument is not that every drone sighting was Russian, but that the overall pattern “cannot be adequately explained” by other means such as human error or hobby drones deployed incorrectly.
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pattern → point → error
It also says that even having a large number of benign drones is, "if anything, analytically consistent with Russian operational design: engineering an environment of ambiguity," where real incursions are hard to distinguish from others.
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incursions → say → others
Franke agrees it’s the pattern that speaks to Russia’s involvement: the type of drones, the time of day, their movements.
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that → agree → day
She also concurs that the uncertainty is the point.
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uncertainty → concur → ?
“Russia benefits from our hysteria, and it benefits from the fact that of course there are going to be drone sightings, no matter what,” she said.
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she → benefit → course
“This is the kind of genius of these hybrid attacks that it is so difficult to attribute, that there will be false positives… and [they] work so well, and are so difficult to deal with in open, democratic societies.”
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they → attribute → societies
Turning point
A turning point came on Aug. 4, with the discovery of a custom-built drone carrying explosives near a Ukrainian Antonov cargo plane at Germany's Leipzig/Halle Airport, which is used as a hub for support sent to Ukraine.
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which → turn → Ukraine
A Ukrainian Antonov cargo plane stands at Leipzig/Halle Airport on Aug. 5.
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plane → stand → Aug.
German investigations concluded that the drone was hard evidence pointing to Russian involvement.
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drone → conclude → involvement
The information the drone made possible has also reportedly since been key to mapping other escalating hybrid operations and connecting them to Russian intelligence.
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drone → make → intelligence
…and 13 more, not listed.
The Aporia
