Story summary
A far-right party called the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is poised to gain power in a state election in Saxony-Anhalt, which would be the first time a far-right party has held state-level power in Germany since World War II. The AfD's candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, has been campaigning on a platform that includes restricting immigration, quitting the Euro, and restoring ties with Russia. According to exit polls, the AfD is leading with around 44% of the vote, more than double its showing five years ago in the region.
This election could have significant implications for German politics and potentially signal a shift towards a harder-right path for the EU's biggest economy. The AfD has been gaining popularity in recent years, buoyed by popular disillusion with successive governments in Berlin and drawing support from formerly communist states in the east. A win for the AfD would also mean that they could overcome the "firewall" of mainstream parties' refusal to work with them.
The election is seen as a potentially historic shift in German politics, and the outcome will be closely watched by observers around the world. If the AfD does gain power, it would likely lead to significant changes in areas such as education, immigration policy, and foreign relations.
Written for “Germany's AfD Rise to Power” on 2026-09-12,
grounded in this article and the 60 other(s) covering the same event.
So, Germany’s far-right party, the AfD, just won a huge landslide election victory in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt.
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party → win → Anhalt
This doesn’t mean AfD is taking over Germany — the far right is much more popular in the post-communist east than in the more populated western regions.
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right → mean → regions
Germany is also a parliamentary democracy, and almost everyone else hates and fears the AfD.
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everyone → hat → AfD.
But the statewide victory is a warning shot, and everyone in Germany — and in Europe — is taking it seriously.
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everyone → take → it
AfD’s surge means two things.
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surge → mean → things
First, it means that the rise of far-right parties was not simply a reaction to the pandemic.
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rise → mean → pandemic
Back in 2024-25, a number of pundits I respect argued that voters in the U.S. and Europe were backing rightist leaders out of anger at incumbents over Covid.
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voters → respect → Covid
That thesis now looks dead.
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thesis → look → ?
Second, it means that something is making many German voters so angry that they’re finally willing to overlook all of the AfD’s catastrophic flaws — its obvious ties to Vladimir Putin, the fact that the party is filled with crooks, its extreme rhetoric, its lack of governing experience, and so on.
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party → mean → experience
A number of socialist types have tried to claim that AfD’s new voters are responding to economic despair, and can be won back with more socialism.
uncertain
voters → try → socialism
But more sober voices agree that the “something” is immigration.
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something → agree → ?
Adam Tooze, who strongly leans to the left, tries to be gentle as he explains that there’s no getting around the immigration issue:
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he → lean → issue
If you ask AfD voters what they worry about, along with their xenophobic concerns about “too many foreigners”, they will mention the cost of living and their concerns for their standard of living.
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they → ask → living
They also mention climate change and the threat of external war…
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They → mention → war
But if you ask them what they think about the AfD and why they voted for it, economic issues are barely mentioned.
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issues → ask → it
What comes first is security, foreigners, woke politics, remoteness etc…
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comes → come → ?
If you are hard up and working-class it would after all be nothing short of bizarre to vote for the AfD in the hope of improved social protection…Voting for the AfD in the current landscape, whatever your economic issues, in short, is not a vote to have your economic issues addressed by social democracy, or welfare or government intervention.
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issues → vote → democracy
It is a vote to crackdown on foreigners[.] [emphasis mine]
Robin Brooks is more blunt:
There’s lots going on in Germany at the moment, but - when it comes to the surge in AfD popularity - you don’t need to overthink it.
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you → crackdown → it
The AfD is relentlessly campaigning on immigration, which tells you that this is what resonates most with voters…
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what → campaign → voters
A key driver of the recent surge in AfD popularity is that the CDU - SPD grand coalition is proving itself incapable of confronting immigration with the urgency many voters want.
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voters → prove → urgency
In fact, anger over immigration is probably the main reason that the right is surging everywhere in Europe.
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right → surge → Europe
We use regional data spanning over 4500 electoral outcomes…between 2000 and 2017 to assess the impact of immigration on Western European Far-Right voting.
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We → use → voting
To deal with potential reverse causation, we use immigration in neighboring countries as an instrument for domestic immigration.
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we → deal → immigration
The estimated effects of immigration are positive, significant and larger compared to those obtained by simple OLS and fixed effects regressions.
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effects → estimate → OLS
Depending on the measure of immigration used, we find that a 1% increase in immigration stocks leads to a between 1.78% and 2.97% in Far-Right voting…
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increase → depend → voting
Our estimated effects explain a large part of the observed rise in Far-Right in Western European countries that experienced high levels of immigration during the span of our sample.
2026 is hardly the beginning of the trend.
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2026 → estimate → trend
Here’s Brookings in 2024:
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Brookings → ’ → 2024
In the European Union (EU), one election after another has demonstrated the centrality of irregular migration and border security in public discussions and forced mainstream parties to take more restrictive approaches…
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election → demonstrate → approaches
The results of the European Parliament election, France’s snap election, three German state elections, and the Austrian election all showed a strong rightward drift and signaled voters’ distrust in their national governments, confirming the notable shift in tone on migration in Europe toward a more securitized, hardline approach, even among mainstream parties.
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results → show → parties
Trump voters rated it as one of their top issues, along with inflation.
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voters → rat → inflation
It was the issue where Trump had the strongest lead over Kamala Harris in polls.
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Trump → have → polls
American voters clearly soured on immigration in 2023-24.
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voters → sour → 2023
Progressives in America and socialists in Europe still desperately claim that what angry working-class voters really want is more economic support.
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want → claim → what
They keep offering more and more lavish promises of welfare supports and price controls, while staunchly opposing restrictions on immigration.
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They → offer → immigration
The approach keeps failing, and the far right keeps rising.
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right → keep → ?
Center-right and center-left politicians, on the other hand, realize the source of their voters’ anger very clearly, and are taking steps to reduce immigration.
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politicians → realize → immigration
Germany’s center-right CDU has already stanched the flow with restrictive policies:
And Chancellor Friedrich Merz is responding to AfD’s gains by making it harder to get citizenship.
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it → stanch → citizenship
Meanwhile, France and Italy are tightening border controls.
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France → tighten → controls
France is making it harder to become a citizen.
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it → make → ?
The EU is toughening up its asylum rules.
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EU → toughen → rules
…and 81 more, not listed.
