Early exit polls in Germany on Sunday indicated that the Alternative for Germany party has a strong lead in a regional election.
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party → indicate → election
Still, it was unclear whether it would be able to form the country's first far-right state government since World War II.
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it → form → II
Magdeburg, a city of only about 244,000 people, is the capital of the East German state of Saxony-Anhalt — where the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is hoping to rise to power in Sunday's state election.
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party → hop → election
The AfD went into Sunday's election seeking an absolute majority in the state legislature to govern on its own.
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AfD → go → own
That would overcome the so-called "firewall" of mainstream parties' refusal to work with AfD.
The polls for ARD and ZDF public television put AfD at around 44% of the vote, more than double its showing five years ago in the region of 2.1 million people west of Berlin.
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polls → overcome → Berlin
That was far ahead of the Christian Democratic Union, the center-right party of Chancellor Friedrich Merz that currently leads the state, which was seen polling 18.5%.
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which → lead → %
The Left Party was seen finishing third with about 9%.
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Party → see → %
The center-left Social Democrats and Greens were also on course to remain in the state legislature, with around 8%-9% each.
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Democrats → remain → %
It was unclear whether the BSW party would get the 5% of the vote needed to win seats.
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party → get → seats
The exit polls put AfD at least marginally short of an absolute majority.
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polls → put → majority
Ulrich Siegmund, AfD's charismatic 35-year-old candidate for state governor, told ARD that "we have written history."
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we → tell → history
Voters, he said, had sent a signal that "things cannot carry on like this."
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things → say → this
Should the AfD win, it would be an extraordinary breakthrough for a party founded in 2013 largely as a protest movement against the European Union, but which has since shifted far to the right.
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which → win → right
Since 2023, the state Office for the Protection of the Constitution has classified the AfD Saxony-Anhalt as a "confirmed far-right extremist" organization.
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Office → classify → organization
According to the office, which is the state branch of Germany's national domestic intelligence agency, the AfD chapter's core positions violate fundamental principles of Germany's constitution and are "substantially permeated by the racist ideology of ethnopluralism."
"Numerous anti-Muslim, racist and antisemitic statements by officials and elected representatives of the state association demonstrate that the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt seeks precisely such an ethnoculturally homogeneous national population and calls for the exclusion of people on the basis of their origin or religion," the agency says.
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agency → accord → origin
AfD Saxony-Anhalt's main candidate in this election, 35-year-old Ulrich Siegmund, rejects the assessment.
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candidate → reject → assessment
In an August interview, he accused the state intelligence agency of being politically weaponized against his party.
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he → accuse → party
"It monitors the opposition," he said.
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he → monitor → opposition
"It is being used as a political instrument.
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It → use → instrument
"
If his party wins power, it would consider either abolishing the state intelligence agency or restructuring it, he added.
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he → win → it
Siegmund comes across as composed, charismatic and approachable.
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Siegmund → come → ?
But the August cover of the widely-read Der Spiegel magazine branded him "Germany's most dangerous man," noting his combination of a winning demeanor, a realistic chance of gaining power of a state, and a radical platform.
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cover → read → state
The article noted that Siegmund's close party associates include former officials from the "Heimattreuen Deutschen Jugend," a neo-Nazi youth organization that was banned in 2009.
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that → note → 2009
Siegmund was at the 2023 "Potsdam meeting," a gathering of German and other far-right figures where Austrian anti-immigration extremist Martin Sellner presented his "master plan" for "remigration."
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Sellner → present → remigration
The concept envisioned asylum seekers, non-Germans living legally in the country, and German nationals with immigrant backgrounds who had failed to "assimilate" in the country, all being expelled to live in an unspecified African nation.
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all → envision → nation
A version of the plan has become central to AfD Saxony-Anhalt's platform.
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version → become → platform
The state party calls for a "deportation and remigration offensive," with more detention centers to handle people destined for deportation, and advocating for new, tight limits on the number of people permitted to migrate to Germany.
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party → call → Germany
Currently there is no cap on the number of immigrants allowed into Germany every year, but the state AfD party has dismissed suggested caps of around 200,000 as far too high.
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party → be → 200,000
It may sound familiar to Americans, given the
and the Trump administration's aggressive .
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administration → sound → Americans
But the concept of "remigration" is seen as a step further, given its association with the idea of expelling people living legally in a country, even passport holders.
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concept → see → country
AfD Saxony-Anhalt has also drawn criticism for the way it refers to Germany's past.
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it → draw → past
Hans-Thomas Tillschneider, a leading state AfD politician, has spoken disparagingly of "memorial site stuff" and criticized a
to German history.
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Tillschneider → lead → history
Such statements resonate in a country where memories of the repression and the orchestrated mass violence of Nazism and the Holocaust have shaped political discourse for at least three generations.
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memories → resonate → generations
For the AfD, a complicated path to power
Just winning the most votes in Sunday's election will not be enough to bring the AfD to power in Saxony-Anhalt.
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winning → win → Anhalt
The only guaranteed route to governing on its own and appointing the state's next premier — the equivalent of a U.S. governor — is to win an absolute majority, taking more than half of the seats in the state parliament.
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route → guarantee → parliament
Polling made that look unlikely as of Friday.
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that → make → Friday
If it wins a large number of seats, even more than any other party, but fails to make the threshold to govern alone, the AfD would have to find another party that also won at least 5% of the votes — and that is willing to partner up in a coalition government.
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that → win → government
That could prove a very high hurdle.
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That → prove → ?
Germany's other major parties have long ruled out any cooperation with the AfD.
Siegmund has said himself that he would only lead a full AfD government, ruling out any coalition.
So
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he → rule → coalition
the party could win the election by a wide margin, but still end up wielding no real power in the state, and there is a recent precedent for that outcome.
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party → win → outcome
…and 23 more, not listed.
The Aporia
